{"id":69524,"date":"2022-08-23T13:11:01","date_gmt":"2022-08-23T17:11:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=69524"},"modified":"2022-08-23T13:11:27","modified_gmt":"2022-08-23T17:11:27","slug":"global-food-security-and-supply-chains-the-role-of-mercosur-countries-amid-war-and-disease","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/global-food-security-and-supply-chains-the-role-of-mercosur-countries-amid-war-and-disease\/","title":{"rendered":"Seguran\u00e7a alimentar global e cadeias de suprimentos: o papel dos pa\u00edses do Mercosul em meio \u00e0 guerra e \u00e0 doen\u00e7a"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: Cada membro da Conselho Consultivo Global de AgriBusiness<\/a> traz experi\u00eancia significativa em seus respectivos campos, que v\u00e3o desde o desenvolvimento biol\u00f3gico de defini\u00e7\u00e3o de tend\u00eancias, at\u00e9 ped\u00e1gio e log\u00edstica, distribui\u00e7\u00e3o downstream, navega\u00e7\u00e3o regulat\u00f3ria e com\u00e9rcio de mat\u00e9ria-prima. Nesta sess\u00e3o de perguntas e respostas, o membro do Conselho Consultivo Dr. Nicolas Potrie da TAFIREL fornece insights sobre seguran\u00e7a alimentar global, interrup\u00e7\u00e3o da cadeia de suprimentos e o papel dos pa\u00edses do Mercosul em meio \u00e0 pandemia em andamento e \u00e0 guerra R\u00fassia-Ucr\u00e2nia.<\/em><\/p>\n

O Dr. Nicolas Potrie \u00e9 Diretor de TAFIREL<\/a>, uma fornecedora de produtos pesticidas nos principais pa\u00edses do Mercosul. A empresa est\u00e1 sediada no Uruguai, com filiais na Argentina, Paraguai e Bol\u00edvia. Por mais de dois anos, o mundo tem lidado com interrup\u00e7\u00f5es na cadeia de suprimentos em v\u00e1rias frentes (por exemplo, COVID, o conflito entre a R\u00fassia e a Ucr\u00e2nia, mau tempo). Com foco principalmente na doen\u00e7a que dominou as manchetes durante a maior parte dos \u00faltimos dois anos, Potrie oferece insights sobre a pandemia global e o futuro da seguran\u00e7a alimentar.<\/p>\n

ABG: Como a pandemia atual afetou as cadeias de suprimentos? <\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Nicolas

Nicolas Potrie<\/p><\/div>\n

NP:<\/strong> A pandemia gerou uma crise econ\u00f4mica sem precedentes no mundo todo. Impactou quase todos os setores, com poucas exce\u00e7\u00f5es, como os relacionados \u00e0 medicina, produtos de limpeza e comunica\u00e7\u00f5es. Enquanto a agricultura em geral e o com\u00e9rcio de produtos aliment\u00edcios sofreram queda devido \u00e0 queda da demanda e \u00e0 diminui\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os internacionais, o impacto foi muito menos severo do que o observado na ind\u00fastria de transforma\u00e7\u00e3o, produtos energ\u00e9ticos ou em servi\u00e7os como turismo e transporte internacional. Al\u00e9m disso, como a alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o apresenta maior poder reacion\u00e1rio em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a outros setores, espera-se que esse segmento se recupere mais rapidamente.<\/p>\n

As interrup\u00e7\u00f5es de fornecimento causadas pela pandemia, particularmente os choques log\u00edsticos, aceleraram tend\u00eancias relacionadas ao com\u00e9rcio internacional, particularmente na seguran\u00e7a alimentar e nas cadeias de suprimentos. Al\u00e9m do que foi observado em produtos m\u00e9dicos, os debates sobre a import\u00e2ncia de sustentar o fornecimento das cadeias de alimentos foram amplificados, o que levou alguns pa\u00edses a come\u00e7arem a restringir exporta\u00e7\u00f5es para garantir o consumo interno.<\/p>\n

ABG: E a guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NP:<\/strong> Sem nenhuma parada, passamos da pandemia (que n\u00e3o acabar\u00e1 at\u00e9 que a China desmonte a pol\u00edtica Covid Zero), para a guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia, que tem impactos sist\u00eamicos no com\u00e9rcio mundial. Nesse sentido, embora R\u00fassia e Ucr\u00e2nia n\u00e3o ultrapassem 2% do com\u00e9rcio mundial, s\u00e3o players muito importantes na agricultura (trigo, por exemplo) e na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de alimentos processados como \u00f3leos (al\u00e9m de bens energ\u00e9ticos e minerais).<\/p>\n

A invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia pela R\u00fassia causou um impacto imediato devido \u00e0s restri\u00e7\u00f5es de fornecimento (especialmente devido \u00e0 impossibilidade de exportar gr\u00e3os pelos portos ucranianos), o que gerou aumentos hist\u00f3ricos nos pre\u00e7os internacionais. Esses aumentos t\u00eam um impacto positivo nas regi\u00f5es que exportam esses produtos, mas tamb\u00e9m afetam os n\u00edveis de pobreza em pa\u00edses que s\u00e3o altamente dependentes do trigo exportado pela R\u00fassia e Ucr\u00e2nia (como \u00e9 o caso de alguns pa\u00edses africanos) e aumentam as press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias em n\u00edvel global.<\/p>\n

ABG: Como v\u00e1rios pa\u00edses est\u00e3o se adaptando a essas quest\u00f5es?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NP:<\/strong> A crise global sofrida por todos os pa\u00edses \u00e9 prova da import\u00e2ncia que tanto a popula\u00e7\u00e3o quanto seus l\u00edderes atribuem \u00e0 seguran\u00e7a alimentar. Muitas economias definiram pol\u00edticas sobre essa quest\u00e3o. Em alguns casos, essas pol\u00edticas refletiam medidas protecionistas para garantir a autossufici\u00eancia. Embora compreens\u00edvel, em muitos casos, esse provisionamento foi insuficiente para atender \u00e0s necessidades das pessoas.<\/p>\n

Como exemplo, vale lembrar a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre a disponibilidade de terra ar\u00e1vel e a popula\u00e7\u00e3o, em pa\u00edses como China, \u00cdndia, Indon\u00e9sia, Vietn\u00e3 e Nig\u00e9ria, o crescimento populacional \u00e9 alto. Esse crescimento requer uma demanda maior por alimentos b\u00e1sicos (atendendo aqueles em situa\u00e7\u00e3o de pobreza) e por alimentos que exigem maior processamento (atendendo uma classe m\u00e9dia crescente). No final das contas, muitos pa\u00edses aumentar\u00e3o as importa\u00e7\u00f5es de alimentos que ser\u00e3o fornecidos por aqueles pa\u00edses com capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o suficiente (durante os \u00faltimos 60 anos, o Brasil multiplicou suas terras ar\u00e1veis por cinco).<\/p>\n

\"\"Na tabela aqui apresentada, pode-se observar a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre hectares e popula\u00e7\u00e3o, onde se pode confirmar o papel desempenhado pelos pa\u00edses do Mercosul em termos de disponibilidade de terras. Esse aspecto n\u00e3o s\u00f3 tem implica\u00e7\u00f5es para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de alimentos (os membros do Mercosul ganham uma fatia nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es mundiais de alimentos), mas tamb\u00e9m a disponibilidade de recursos estrat\u00e9gicos para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola, como \u00e1gua doce, tamb\u00e9m deve ser considerada.<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, a COVID-19 e a Guerra da Ucr\u00e2nia aceleraram muitos processos e revelaram a import\u00e2ncia que os aspectos da sa\u00fade adquirir\u00e3o no futuro. A seguran\u00e7a e a qualidade dos alimentos, bem como as quest\u00f5es relacionadas aos aspectos sanit\u00e1rios e ambientais, n\u00e3o s\u00f3 levar\u00e3o \u00e0 possibilidade de acesso aos principais centros de consumo, mas tamb\u00e9m estar\u00e3o relacionadas \u00e0s caracter\u00edsticas de sua comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o e ao pre\u00e7o final de venda.<\/p>\n

ABG: Como essas preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es afetar\u00e3o os pa\u00edses latino-americanos?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NP: <\/strong>Neste cen\u00e1rio, os pa\u00edses do Mercosul (Tratado de Assun\u00e7\u00e3o, 1991 que envolveu Brasil, Argentina, Paraguai e Uruguai) desempenham um papel cada vez mais importante na alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o, passando de explicar 22% das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es mundiais de gr\u00e3os oleaginosos em 2001 para 38% em 2019. No mesmo per\u00edodo, a carne passou de 7% para 22%, varia\u00e7\u00f5es que ocorrem em uma alta gama de produtos agr\u00edcolas e agroindustriais, como frutas e frutos comest\u00edveis, cereais ou a\u00e7\u00facar, entre muitos outros. Na produ\u00e7\u00e3o, segundo a FAO, continuar\u00e1 aumentando sua participa\u00e7\u00e3o internacional at\u00e9 2028 em cereais, soja, carne, milho e arroz.<\/p>\n

Em um cen\u00e1rio de conflitos crescentes ou eventos inesperados que podem, como vimos, colocar em risco a comunidade internacional, com cortes bruscos no fornecimento de produtos b\u00e1sicos, o Mercosul pode ser um benef\u00edcio. \u00c9 uma regi\u00e3o geograficamente afastada dos conflitos centrais, com altos n\u00edveis de produtividade agr\u00edcola, com investimentos significativos nos \u00faltimos anos no setor e com mercados relativamente abertos em termos de opera\u00e7\u00f5es de com\u00e9rcio mundial. Nesse sentido, especialmente como exportadores l\u00edquidos de alimentos, como \u00e9 o caso dos membros do Mercosul (deve-se considerar que a Am\u00e9rica Central \u00e9 importadora l\u00edquida de alimentos), continuar\u00e1 ganhando espa\u00e7o na produ\u00e7\u00e3o e exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos agr\u00edcolas e alimentos.<\/p>\n

ABG: E o resto do mundo?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NP: <\/strong>Por outro lado, as grandes pot\u00eancias emergentes como China, \u00cdndia, Indon\u00e9sia e progressivamente as da \u00c1frica ou \u00c1sia Central, demandar\u00e3o cada vez mais alimentos b\u00e1sicos e processados, mas especialmente reconhecidos os padr\u00f5es sanit\u00e1rios. \u00c9 a\u00ed que os principais pa\u00edses exportadores mundiais devem cooperar com os principais consumidores e importadores, que s\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m os que fornecem insumos agr\u00edcolas e maquin\u00e1rio para manter n\u00edveis adequados de competitividade.<\/p>\n

Nesse sentido, os pa\u00edses da Am\u00e9rica Latina ter\u00e3o incentivos para avan\u00e7ar no aprofundamento das rela\u00e7\u00f5es comerciais com essas economias emergentes por meio da assinatura de acordos de livre com\u00e9rcio. Al\u00e9m disso, espera-se que os investimentos dessas economias nos pa\u00edses latino-americanos aumentem (fen\u00f4meno que tamb\u00e9m se aprofundar\u00e1 na \u00c1frica) no setor aliment\u00edcio, seja com a compra ou associa\u00e7\u00e3o com empresas estabelecidas, compra de terras e investimentos em log\u00edstica.<\/p>\n

ABG: Como ficar\u00e1 a ind\u00fastria quando finalmente estivermos livres (ou pelo menos controlando) desta pandemia e da Guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

NP:<\/strong> No novo mundo que surgir\u00e1 ap\u00f3s a pandemia, pelo menos tr\u00eas coisas s\u00e3o claras:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o e o com\u00e9rcio de alimentos sair\u00e3o mais fortes.<\/li>\n
  2. Os aspectos da sa\u00fade ser\u00e3o cada vez mais valorizados.<\/li>\n
  3. Os principais exportadores do mundo continuar\u00e3o ganhando terreno.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Neste contexto e devido \u00e0s tenta\u00e7\u00f5es nacionalistas e protecionistas, os pa\u00edses da Am\u00e9rica Latina e do Caribe devem aumentar os n\u00edveis de coopera\u00e7\u00e3o e confian\u00e7a com as economias emergentes.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    A regi\u00e3o do Mercosul est\u00e1 geograficamente distante dos conflitos centrais, o que aumenta sua import\u00e2ncia para a comunidade agr\u00edcola internacional. <\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":69279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,26,18,19,20,5],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-69524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-americas","category-fungicides","category-herbicides","category-insecticides","category-markets","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Food Security and Supply Chains: The Role of Mercosur Countries Amid War and Disease - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Mercosur region is geographically far from the central conflicts, which increases its importance to the international ag community.\" 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