{"id":70157,"date":"2022-11-30T12:07:27","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T17:07:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=70157"},"modified":"2022-12-09T14:39:56","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T19:39:56","slug":"report-after-two-turbulent-years-fertilizer-markets-may-start-to-settle-in-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/report-after-two-turbulent-years-fertilizer-markets-may-start-to-settle-in-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Relat\u00f3rio: Ap\u00f3s dois anos turbulentos, os mercados de fertilizantes podem come\u00e7ar a se estabilizar em 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Em meio \u00e0 extrema volatilidade do mercado e pre\u00e7os recordes, o consumo de fertilizantes sofreu em 2022. De acordo com um novo relat\u00f3rio do Rabobank<\/a>, uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o no consumo \u00e9 poss\u00edvel em algumas regi\u00f5es em 2023, com pre\u00e7os de fertilizantes caindo e pre\u00e7os de commodities em n\u00edveis historicamente altos.<\/p>\n

Quando a geopol\u00edtica encontra os mercados de fertilizantes, as coisas ficam turbulentas para os fertilizantes. Foi exatamente isso que aconteceu nos \u00faltimos dois anos, com as tens\u00f5es atingindo o pico ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia. Mas para 2023, podemos esperar que as coisas se acalmem um pouco, diz Bruno Fonseca, Analista S\u00eanior \u2013 Insumos Agr\u00edcolas do Rabobank. \u201cOs movimentos de pre\u00e7os durante esses \u00faltimos meses t\u00eam se assemelhado aos de certos per\u00edodos do passado\u201d, diz ele. \u201cA hist\u00f3ria se repete. Isso se torna mais evidente quando exploramos tend\u00eancias hist\u00f3ricas no \u00edndice de acessibilidade ao longo do tempo.\u201d<\/p>\n

O \u00edndice de acessibilidade mostra o pre\u00e7o relativo de uma cesta de commodities em compara\u00e7\u00e3o a uma cesta de fertilizantes. As tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os e volatilidade est\u00e3o alinhadas com um ciclo de picos de tr\u00eas anos. Se a hist\u00f3ria for para ser acreditada \u2013 especialmente as tend\u00eancias observadas ap\u00f3s a Crise Financeira Global de 2008 \u2013 ent\u00e3o os pre\u00e7os devem cair nos pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/p>\n

\u201cA m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel do \u00edndice est\u00e1 tendendo para baixo, pois os pre\u00e7os dos fertilizantes est\u00e3o retornando aos n\u00edveis pr\u00e9-guerra\u201d, diz Fonseca. \u201cPelos pr\u00f3ximos tr\u00eas meses, o \u00edndice continuar\u00e1 a tender para baixo, mas permanecer\u00e1 acima do normal. O ponto-chave de aten\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 nos produtos de nitrog\u00eanio, pois a crise do g\u00e1s natural na Europa tem o potencial de tornar a ureia e a am\u00f4nia mais caras e, portanto, manter o \u00edndice em um n\u00edvel alto.\u201d<\/p>\n

Perspectivas do mercado de fertilizantes<\/h2>\n

O mercado de fertilizantes \u00e0 base de nitrog\u00eanio \u00e9 o mais vol\u00e1til entre todos os fertilizantes devido \u00e0 sua conex\u00e3o intr\u00ednseca com os mercados de petr\u00f3leo e g\u00e1s natural. Assim, \u00e0 medida que essas commodities se tornam mais vol\u00e1teis, espera-se que os pre\u00e7os da ureia e da am\u00f4nia acompanhem a mar\u00e9. A volatilidade anualizada de 2022 dos pre\u00e7os da ureia at\u00e9 meados de outubro foi acima de 60% \u2013 tr\u00eas vezes mais do que a m\u00e9dia de cinco anos. Enquanto durar a crise do g\u00e1s natural na Europa, a volatilidade no mercado de fertilizantes \u00e0 base de nitrog\u00eanio persistir\u00e1, com semanas de demanda mais forte empurrando os pre\u00e7os para cima e semanas mais fracas empurrando os pre\u00e7os para baixo.<\/p>\n

Os pre\u00e7os dos fertilizantes fosfatados est\u00e3o em tend\u00eancia de queda, pois a demanda foi destru\u00edda pelos altos pre\u00e7os observados neste ano. Ainda assim, altos custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o devem evitar grandes redu\u00e7\u00f5es nos pre\u00e7os. A log\u00edstica continua sendo um risco, assim como o clima adverso que afeta as janelas de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o. Esses fatores podem gerar volatilidade material no mercado, de outra forma calmo.<\/p>\n

O pico no mercado de pot\u00e1ssio destruiu a demanda. Agora, os pre\u00e7os est\u00e3o caindo para recuperar essa demanda. A continua\u00e7\u00e3o das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es da Bielorr\u00fassia e da R\u00fassia est\u00e1 resultando em um rearranjo da oferta global, pressionando ainda mais os pre\u00e7os.<\/p>\n

Altos pre\u00e7os de commodities d\u00e3o suporte \u00e0 demanda<\/h2>\n

Os altos pre\u00e7os das commodities dos \u00faltimos dois anos deram aos produtores retornos excelentes e fortes posi\u00e7\u00f5es de capital de giro. Custos de insumos mais altos significam que as margens dos produtores ser\u00e3o menores na temporada de cultivo de 2023 do que nos \u00faltimos dois anos, mas as margens ainda ser\u00e3o positivas. \u201cCom forte capital de giro e margens positivas, os produtores far\u00e3o cortes m\u00ednimos nos insumos\u201d, prev\u00ea Fonseca. \u201cO objetivo deles \u00e9 maximizar os rendimentos, e isso n\u00e3o \u00e9 alcan\u00e7ado cortando insumos, particularmente fertilizantes.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"

Fonte: Rabobank 2022<\/p><\/div>\n

Clique aqui para baixar o relat\u00f3rio<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o no consumo \u00e9 poss\u00edvel em algumas regi\u00f5es, com pre\u00e7os de fertilizantes caindo e pre\u00e7os de commodities em n\u00edveis historicamente altos.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":70159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1848,5,23],"tags":[554],"class_list":["post-70157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-executive-outlook","category-markets","category-npk","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"\nReport: After Two Turbulent Years, Fertilizer Markets May Start to Settle in 2023 - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A recovery in consumption is possible in some regions, with fertilizer prices lowering and commodity prices at historically high levels.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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