{"id":72289,"date":"2023-06-20T11:29:36","date_gmt":"2023-06-20T15:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=72289"},"modified":"2023-06-19T11:30:34","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T15:30:34","slug":"china-price-index-how-agrochemical-companies-can-overtake-the-competition-during-a-rainy-race-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-price-index-how-agrochemical-companies-can-overtake-the-competition-during-a-rainy-race-day\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China: como as empresas agroqu\u00edmicas podem superar a concorr\u00eancia durante um "dia chuvoso de corrida""},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal\u00a0\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a>. Abaixo, ele tamb\u00e9m explica que quando a ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos est\u00e1 em adversidade, \u00e9 a coopera\u00e7\u00e3o e o compartilhamento de recursos globais que permitir\u00e3o o fortalecimento das empresas agroqu\u00edmicas e \u201cfar\u00e3o com que um dia chuvoso supere\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ayrton Senna, um famoso piloto brasileiro de F\u00f3rmula 1, disse a famosa frase: \u201cVoc\u00ea n\u00e3o pode ultrapassar 15 carros em tempo ensolarado... mas pode quando est\u00e1 chovendo.\u201d A converg\u00eancia de fatores adversos e riscos \u00e9 frequentemente um precursor de oportunidade. Durante tempos desafiadores, a adversidade em si geralmente n\u00e3o \u00e9 t\u00e3o importante; como encontrar oportunidades nessa adversidade \u00e9 a habilidade cr\u00edtica.<\/p>\n

Em maio de 2023, a quantidade total de glifosato importado para os EUA diminuiu em 97,9% em compara\u00e7\u00e3o ao mesmo per\u00edodo do ano passado. O mercado norte-americano importou 65,7% a menos de glufosinato no ano anterior de 2023. As importa\u00e7\u00f5es totais norte-americanas de herbicidas de burndown ca\u00edram 45,2%. A demanda norte-americana pelos tr\u00eas principais herbicidas de burndown apresentou tend\u00eancia de n\u00edveis significativamente mais baixos em maio. Essa situa\u00e7\u00e3o esfriou um mercado j\u00e1 deprimido.<\/p>\n

A fraca demanda no mercado norte-americano em maio tamb\u00e9m sinaliza que a digest\u00e3o dos estoques de agroqu\u00edmicos norte-americanos continua sendo um desafio. Os fabricantes chineses est\u00e3o contando com a nova temporada da LATAM. Maio \u00e9 muito cedo para esperar uma demanda no mercado sul-americano. Embora essa regi\u00e3o, especialmente o mercado brasileiro, mostre-se promissora para a aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de agroqu\u00edmicos, ainda \u00e9 duvidoso se a demanda sul-americana come\u00e7ar\u00e1 em larga escala em junho. Diante de empresas multinacionais pelo poder de compra do canal do squeeze, os distribuidores em aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o de IA gen\u00e9rica t\u00eam pouca \u201cmargem de manobra\u201d.<\/p>\n

De acordo com dados p\u00fablicos recentemente divulgados pela Icama<\/a>, As exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de pesticidas da China ca\u00edram significativamente para 660.000 toneladas no primeiro trimestre de 2023, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o mesmo per\u00edodo em 2022. O n\u00famero deste ano \u00e9 semelhante \u00e0 quantidade total de mat\u00e9rias-primas exportadas pela China no primeiro trimestre de 2021. No entanto, correspondentemente, o valor total das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de pesticidas da China no primeiro trimestre de 2023 diminuiu em 63% YoY 2022. As margens brutas dos fabricantes chineses para IAs de pesticidas est\u00e3o se aproximando de n\u00edveis historicamente baixos.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Claro, os pre\u00e7os dos produtos n\u00e3o podem cair indefinidamente quando a demanda est\u00e1 lenta. A complexidade do mercado chin\u00eas de pesticidas em 2023 \u00e9 muito maior do que os profissionais imaginam. Altos estoques e incerteza sobre a lucratividade de produtos agr\u00edcolas a granel levam \u00e0 m\u00e1 distribui\u00e7\u00e3o e consumo. Al\u00e9m disso, a demanda na Am\u00e9rica do Norte ainda pode ter dificuldades para se recuperar no outono de 2023. As compras cont\u00ednuas por distribuidores est\u00e3o agora diluindo amplamente os estoques de alto pre\u00e7o adquiridos durante 2022. Na Am\u00e9rica do Sul, embora o consumo de produtos de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos pelos agricultores seja positivo, altos estoques de canal continuam sendo uma restri\u00e7\u00e3o fundamental nas decis\u00f5es de compra.<\/p>\n

Durante a crise do mercado, quase todas as equipes de compras aguardam o surgimento de um ponto de inflex\u00e3o de pre\u00e7o. No entanto, mesmo a chegada de um ponto de inflex\u00e3o n\u00e3o significa que um grande contrato est\u00e1 chegando. Como previmos no in\u00edcio deste ano, a fragmenta\u00e7\u00e3o de pedidos e cortes por empresas multinacionais est\u00e3o se tornando uma nova realidade. Em 2023, o pre\u00e7o n\u00e3o \u00e9 mais um fator-chave para as empresas chinesas de pesticidas que buscam aumentar as vendas.<\/p>\n

A margem bruta atual para o glifosato na China \u00e9 de quase 15%. Os pre\u00e7os do f\u00f3sforo amarelo subiram recentemente. Ent\u00e3o, o ponto de inflex\u00e3o para os pre\u00e7os do glifosato chegou? Ao contr\u00e1rio das opini\u00f5es de muitos gerentes de vendas de glifosato, acreditamos que o ponto de inflex\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o do glifosato ainda n\u00e3o chegou. O pre\u00e7o mais alto do f\u00f3sforo amarelo se deve principalmente \u00e0 demanda lenta de glifosato downstream e ao ajuste moderado da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de f\u00f3sforo amarelo upstream. O alto pre\u00e7o do f\u00f3sforo amarelo ilustra ainda mais as vendas ruins atuais do mercado de glifosato. Por outro lado, como a taxa de c\u00e2mbio do CNY em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao USD continuou a se depreciar recentemente, isso tamb\u00e9m reduziu o pre\u00e7o em USD das mat\u00e9rias-primas produzidas na China. O movimento descendente dos pre\u00e7os de agroqu\u00edmicos a granel como o glifosato continuar\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Comparado com a previs\u00e3o de vendas de glifosato, acreditamos mais no princ\u00edpio econ\u00f4mico de que "o pre\u00e7o \u00e9 o reflexo da oferta e da demanda". Se n\u00e3o virmos um forte suporte do lado da demanda, os pre\u00e7os n\u00e3o ser\u00e3o facilmente revertidos por fatores artificiais. Atualmente, h\u00e1 um aumento de pedidos de consulta de glifosato no mercado chin\u00eas. O motivo pode ser mais para fornecer suporte de custo mais alto para vendas de formula\u00e7\u00e3o de glifosato no mercado externo por um pre\u00e7o mais baixo. Se tivesse que haver um momento ideal para o fornecimento, o n\u00edvel de risco de agir agora e decidir no quarto trimestre de 2023 seria semelhante. Isso ocorre porque se a meta da equipe de compras \u00e9 entrar no mercado em um momento em que as margens brutas do glifosato s\u00e3o zero, ent\u00e3o o risco de comprar agora \u00e9 de apenas 15% dos pre\u00e7os atuais do glifosato. Com um n\u00edvel administr\u00e1vel de risco de compras, o planejamento a qualquer momento est\u00e1 dentro de uma faixa administr\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n

A queda de toda a ind\u00fastria agroqu\u00edmica da China em 2023 \u00e9 inevit\u00e1vel. Mas \u00e9 hora de algumas empresas ultrapassarem outros concorrentes no \u201cdia chuvoso da corrida\u201d.<\/p>\n

Corteva recentemente atualizou seu pipeline de P&D<\/a> em 2023. A inova\u00e7\u00e3o sustent\u00e1vel ser\u00e1 a dire\u00e7\u00e3o futura do desenvolvimento de P&D da Corteva. Reduzir o risco n\u00e3o-alvo, diminuir o impacto ambiental, adotar novos modos de a\u00e7\u00e3o, baixo risco para \u00e1guas subterr\u00e2neas, focar em produtos biol\u00f3gicos e naturais e baixa dosagem para aplica\u00e7\u00e3o em campo ser\u00e3o atributos-chave do futuro sustent\u00e1vel da Corteva.<\/p>\n

Para pesticidas gen\u00e9ricos, ser\u00e1 muito dif\u00edcil atingir todas essas caracter\u00edsticas. A partir de nossa prospec\u00e7\u00e3o de P&D, as equipes de inova\u00e7\u00e3o chinesas podem concentrar sua aten\u00e7\u00e3o em uma ou v\u00e1rias \u00e1reas de inova\u00e7\u00e3o sobreposta, como s\u00edntese direcionada de is\u00f4meros de pesticidas quirais para aumentar a efic\u00e1cia e diminuir a dosagem, desenvolvimento de sistemas inovadores de entrega de formula\u00e7\u00e3o e desenvolvimento de produtos biol\u00f3gicos inovadores a partir de mat\u00e9rias-primas especiais.<\/p>\n

Uma parceria de \u201cInova\u00e7\u00e3o Modulada\u201d entre empresas globais de gen\u00e9ricos e empresas chinesas de pesticidas est\u00e1 tomando forma. Em 2019, propus pela primeira vez a \u201cInova\u00e7\u00e3o Modulada\u201d na ind\u00fastria de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos. Como empresas multinacionais e distribuidores globalizados t\u00eam recursos limitados para inova\u00e7\u00e3o interna e P&D, a coopera\u00e7\u00e3o de terceiros para introduzir recursos de inova\u00e7\u00e3o externa ser\u00e1 a tend\u00eancia de desenvolvimento para empresas, que t\u00eam a inten\u00e7\u00e3o de capturar um fosso mais amplo no mercado. Existem dois modelos principais de introdu\u00e7\u00e3o externa de inova\u00e7\u00e3o, um \u00e9 licenciar diretamente a inova\u00e7\u00e3o. O outro \u00e9 investir capital e arcar com parte do custo de P&D com os desenvolvedores. As empresas globalizadas adquirem propriedade parcial dos ativos de resultados de P&D por meio de investimento. Por meio desse modelo, as empresas globalizadas podem alavancar os recursos de talentos inovadores na segunda maior economia do mundo com uma pequena quantidade de capital e, eventualmente, gerar propriedade intelectual compartilhada.<\/p>\n

Em um momento em que a ind\u00fastria global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos est\u00e1 em adversidade, \u00e9 a coopera\u00e7\u00e3o e o compartilhamento de recursos globais que permitir\u00e3o o fortalecimento das empresas agroqu\u00edmicas e \u201cfar\u00e3o com que os dias dif\u00edceis superem as dificuldades\u201d.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Quando o setor de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos enfrenta adversidades, \u00e9 a coopera\u00e7\u00e3o e o compartilhamento de recursos que capacitam as empresas a superar a concorr\u00eancia.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":112,"featured_media":52620,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,19,1849,1882],"tags":[1836,54],"class_list":["post-72289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-herbicides","category-sourcing-insider","category-sourcing-insider-china","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: How Agrochemical Companies Can Overtake the Competition During a 'Rainy Race Day' - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"When the crop protection industry is in adversity, it is cooperation and sharing of resources that empower 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