{"id":72904,"date":"2023-08-11T09:35:08","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T13:35:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=72904"},"modified":"2025-08-04T14:10:34","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:10:34","slug":"how-black-swan-events-are-impacting-global-agribusiness-and-what-to-expect-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/how-black-swan-events-are-impacting-global-agribusiness-and-what-to-expect-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Como os eventos do Cisne Negro est\u00e3o impactando o agroneg\u00f3cio global e o que esperar em 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Embora imprevis\u00edveis, os produtores est\u00e3o cientes e talvez esperem experimentar interrup\u00e7\u00f5es. S\u00e3o os eventos inesperados, Cisne Negro<\/a> eventos que muitas vezes perturbam a ind\u00fastria. Bob Trogele<\/a>, Diretor de Opera\u00e7\u00f5es\/Vice-presidente Executivo da AMVAC, compartilhou suas ideias sobre os eventos do Cisne Negro que afetaram 2023 e suas perspectivas para 2024.<\/p>\n

Mudan\u00e7as de pre\u00e7os levaram a enormes estoques, principalmente de herbicidas, em toda a cadeia de valor. Ningu\u00e9m queria ser pego sem disponibilidade do produto. O desafio \u00e9 gerenciar esse fornecimento e decidir quando comprar novo material pelo pre\u00e7o certo.<\/p>\n

Contribuindo para os problemas de pre\u00e7os, pelo menos inicialmente, est\u00e1 a invas\u00e3o russa em andamento na Ucr\u00e2nia. Ambas as empresas s\u00e3o fornecedoras de fertilizantes, e o conflito fez os pre\u00e7os dos fertilizantes dispararem. Embora os pre\u00e7os tenham diminu\u00eddo um pouco, os desafios continuam.<\/p>\n

Muitos previram que a guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia e na R\u00fassia seria um evento de curta dura\u00e7\u00e3o, disse Trogele. Muitos acreditavam que duraria meses. E mesmo que acabe logo, os efeitos podem durar anos.<\/p>\n

\u201cMuita infraestrutura est\u00e1 destru\u00edda; mais infraestrutura est\u00e1 sendo destru\u00edda\u201d, disse Trogele. \u201cE ainda h\u00e1 o problema das minas nos campos. Ainda h\u00e1 o problema com o transporte. Do lado da oferta, a Ucr\u00e2nia ficar\u00e1 fora do radar por mais 36 a 48 meses.\u201d<\/p>\n

E quando a guerra finalmente terminar, Trogele questionou como essa infraestrutura ser\u00e1 financiada.<\/p>\n

\"Bob<\/a>

O COO da AMVAC, Bob Trogele, compartilhou suas ideias sobre os eventos do Cisne Negro que afetaram 2023 e suas perspectivas para 2024.<\/p><\/div>\n

A pr\u00f3xima preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o de Trogele foi o sistema banc\u00e1rio dos EUA. V\u00e1rias pequenas proibi\u00e7\u00f5es e at\u00e9 mesmo algumas maiores mostraram sinais de instabilidade. E os desafios ao sistema banc\u00e1rio dos EUA t\u00eam implica\u00e7\u00f5es em todo o mundo. Como Trogele disse, "Quando os EUA pegam um resfriado, o resto do mundo acaba em tratamento intensivo".<\/p>\n

O pr\u00f3ximo evento do cisne negro se concentra na Am\u00e9rica do Sul e no maior pa\u00eds do continente.<\/p>\n

\u201cO Brasil est\u00e1 em p\u00e9ssimas condi\u00e7\u00f5es. O dinheiro est\u00e1 caro, e a ind\u00fastria tem financiado o Brasil. Ent\u00e3o, se o dinheiro estiver apertado, e o dinheiro estiver muito caro, as empresas de manufatura \u2013 Alemanha, Su\u00ed\u00e7a, China, EUA v\u00e3o continuar fornecendo financiamento?\u201d<\/p>\n

Trogele tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 preocupado com a China, a segunda maior economia do mundo.<\/p>\n

\u201cPara onde vai a economia chinesa\u201d, Trogele perguntou retoricamente. \u201cEstamos todos esperando por uma reinicializa\u00e7\u00e3o.\u201d Ao falar com banqueiros nos EUA, ele disse que os EUA devem experimentar um pouso suave. \u201cSe a China n\u00e3o voltar, haver\u00e1 ondas de choque no resto do mundo porque estamos muito interconectados.\u201d<\/p>\n

Com todas essas potenciais interrup\u00e7\u00f5es, Trogele ofereceu alguns conselhos para a ind\u00fastria rumo a 2024, sugerindo que eles prestem aten\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 \u00f3tica. \u201cEu realmente observaria onde gasto meu dinheiro\u201d, disse ele. \u201c'Talvez eu seja apenas um velho fazendeiro que diz, quando h\u00e1 nuvens no horizonte, voc\u00ea apenas aperta o cinto.' No lado do mercado, concentre-se no que voc\u00ea faz de melhor com intensidade. Cuide do seu neg\u00f3cio principal. Cuide dos seus clientes A.<\/p>\n

\u201cSe houver mudan\u00e7as na ind\u00fastria, eu come\u00e7aria a criar um fundo de guerra porque haver\u00e1 disrup\u00e7\u00e3o. E utilizaria esse dinheiro para investir em um momento em que as coisas derem errado\u201d, sugeriu Trogele.<\/p>\n

Quando chegar a hora, Trogele sugeriu que usaria esse dinheiro para acesso ao mercado.<\/p>\n

\u201cDois, nunca \u00e9 demais ter mais tecnologia, seja voc\u00ea mesmo que a crie ou a compre\u201d, ele disse. \u201cN\u00e3o \u00e9 t\u00e3o dif\u00edcil.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No Trade Summit, o COO da AMVAC, Bob Trogele, compartilhou suas ideias sobre os eventos do Cisne Negro que afetaram 2023 e suas perspectivas para 2024.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":72914,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-agrochemicals","category-trade-summit"],"yoast_head":"\nHow Black Swan Events Are Impacting Global Agribusiness and What to Expect in 2024 - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"At the Trade Summit, AMVAC COO Bob Trogele shared his thoughts on the Black Swan events that affected 2023 and his outlook for 2024.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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