{"id":7322,"date":"2008-12-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-12-10T05:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2008\/12\/10\/nutrients-on-the-rise\/"},"modified":"2019-09-16T13:49:33","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T17:49:33","slug":"nutrients-on-the-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/nutrients-on-the-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Nutrientes em ascens\u00e3o"},"content":{"rendered":"

At\u00e9 mesmo os veteranos mais grisalhos da ind\u00fastria de insumos agr\u00edcolas admitir\u00e3o que nunca viram nada parecido com os desenvolvimentos nos mercados de gr\u00e3os e nutrientes agr\u00edcolas durante os \u00faltimos 12 meses. Por exemplo, os pre\u00e7os spot atuais de am\u00f4nia anidra, fosfato diam\u00f4nico (DAP) e muriato de pot\u00e1ssio nos terminais de atacado do Centro-Oeste dos EUA aumentaram cerca de 75%, 200% e 160%, respectivamente, desde janeiro de 2007.<\/p>\n

H\u00e1 poucos sinais de qualquer al\u00edvio at\u00e9 agora neste ano, mas a previs\u00e3o desses n\u00edveis deve ser qualificada como servi\u00e7o perigoso. Algumas tend\u00eancias s\u00e3o claras, no entanto, e muitos dos fatores fundamentais que se combinaram para puxar ou empurrar os pre\u00e7os para cima no ano passado parecem que permanecer\u00e3o intactos ou potencialmente se intensificar\u00e3o este ano.<\/p>\n

A demanda tamb\u00e9m aumenta<\/p>\n

Primeiro, as perspectivas de demanda por nutrientes para as culturas em todo o mundo permanecem extremamente positivas devido aos pre\u00e7os recordes para uma ampla gama de commodities agr\u00edcolas. O ritmo de crescimento da demanda por nutrientes mais que dobrou. As \u00faltimas estimativas do Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Internacional da Ind\u00fastria de Fertilizantes <\/a>(IFA) indicam que o uso mundial de nutrientes aumentar\u00e1 13% ou cerca de 20 milh\u00f5es de toneladas durante o per\u00edodo de tr\u00eas anos de 2006 a 2008. Essa \u00e9 uma taxa de crescimento anual composta de 4% e \u00e9 mais que o dobro da taxa de 1,8% de 1995 a 2005. O aumento de 20 milh\u00f5es de toneladas no uso global de nutrientes \u00e9 aproximadamente o equivalente a adicionar mais um Estados Unidos \u00e0 demanda mundial em apenas tr\u00eas anos.<\/p>\n

A perspectiva positiva de demanda reflete a for\u00e7a cont\u00ednua dos pre\u00e7os de gr\u00e3os e oleaginosas e a excelente economia agr\u00edcola na maioria das regi\u00f5es do mundo. No final de fevereiro, os pre\u00e7os da nova safra de 2008 para milho, soja e trigo vermelho duro de inverno estavam sendo negociados a aproximadamente $5,65, $14,25 e $11 por bushel, respectivamente.<\/p>\n

Previs\u00f5es de fertilizantes: boas<\/p>\n

Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 apenas um jogo de milho-soja-trigo. O contrato pr\u00f3ximo para arroz em casca na Chicago Board of Trade estava sendo negociado em um n\u00edvel recorde de cerca de $17,30 por cwt e o contrato pr\u00f3ximo para \u00f3leo de palma na bolsa de Kuala Lumpur estava sendo negociado em uma alta recorde de cerca de 3.825 ringgits por tonelada ou 54 centavos por libra no final de fevereiro.<\/p>\n

Os mercados est\u00e3o pedindo aos agricultores ao redor do mundo que pisem no acelerador e acelerem os poderosos motores da agricultura de produ\u00e7\u00e3o para atender ao crescimento mais r\u00e1pido na demanda por gr\u00e3os e sementes oleaginosas. Isso, por sua vez, est\u00e1 acelerando o crescimento da demanda por nutrientes em todo o mundo.<\/p>\n

Estimamos que o uso de nutrientes nos EUA durante o ano de fertilizantes que terminou em 30 de junho de 2007 aumentou cerca de 10% devido \u00e0 mudan\u00e7a na \u00e1rea de soja para milho, bem como aumentos moderados nas taxas de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o na maioria das culturas no ano passado. Projetamos que o uso de nutrientes nos EUA em 2007\/08 permanecer\u00e1 quase est\u00e1vel neste alto n\u00edvel como resultado de uma mudan\u00e7a de volta para a soja e taxas de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1veis. Espera-se que o uso de nitrog\u00eanio caia ligeiramente, o uso de fosfato deve permanecer inalterado e o pot\u00e1ssio deve aumentar modestamente. Essas previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o baseadas na suposi\u00e7\u00e3o de que os agricultores dos EUA plantar\u00e3o cerca de 90 milh\u00f5es de acres de milho, 69,7 milh\u00f5es de acres de soja e 63,5 milh\u00f5es de acres de todo o trigo em 2008.<\/p>\n

Press\u00e3o sobre os produtores<\/p>\n

Uma segunda tend\u00eancia que permanece intacta este ano \u2014 e ultimamente se intensificou \u2014 \u00e9 a press\u00e3o de custo sobre os produtores de nutrientes agr\u00edcolas. Pre\u00e7os mais altos de energia e mat\u00e9rias-primas est\u00e3o elevando os custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o a n\u00edveis recordes. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o e distribui\u00e7\u00e3o de nutrientes agr\u00edcolas s\u00e3o intensivas em energia, ent\u00e3o os recentes aumentos nos pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo e do g\u00e1s natural aumentaram o custo dos nutrientes agr\u00edcolas para os agricultores em todo o mundo. Em particular, a s\u00edntese de am\u00f4nia anidra requer grandes quantidades de g\u00e1s natural ou outro hidrocarboneto, tanto para abastecer o processo quanto para usar como mat\u00e9ria-prima. Uma planta t\u00edpica de nitrog\u00eanio usa g\u00e1s natural suficiente em um ano para aquecer 128.000 casas em uma grande cidade dos EUA por um ano inteiro!<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m da energia, os custos de mat\u00e9rias-primas essenciais tamb\u00e9m aumentaram drasticamente durante o \u00faltimo ano. O enxofre, uma importante mat\u00e9ria-prima para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de fertilizantes de fosfato, \u00e9 um excelente exemplo. O pre\u00e7o do enxofre aumentou por um fator de quatro a seis em pontos-chave de pre\u00e7os durante os \u00faltimos 12 meses e a escassez de enxofre est\u00e1 limitando a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de fosfato em muitas partes do mundo.<\/p>\n

Os recentes saltos nos pre\u00e7os de rocha fosf\u00e1tica, enxofre e am\u00f4nia aumentaram drasticamente os custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de fosfato, especialmente para produtores n\u00e3o integrados que compram em vez de minerar rocha. Por exemplo, o custo dessas tr\u00eas mat\u00e9rias-primas entregues a um porto indiano aumentou de cerca de $135 por tonelada de DAP h\u00e1 apenas cinco anos para aproximadamente $750 por tonelada hoje.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

At\u00e9 mesmo os veteranos mais experientes da ind\u00fastria de insumos agr\u00edcolas admitir\u00e3o que nunca viram nada parecido\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nNutrients On The Rise - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Even the most grizzled veterans of the crop input industry will admit that they have never seen anything like the developments in grain and crop nutrient\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/nutrients-on-the-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nutrients On The Rise - 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