{"id":73233,"date":"2023-09-20T13:43:12","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T17:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=73233"},"modified":"2023-09-21T10:48:49","modified_gmt":"2023-09-21T14:48:49","slug":"russian-wheat-exports-remain-biggest-risk-to-u-s-wheat-elevators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/russian-wheat-exports-remain-biggest-risk-to-u-s-wheat-elevators\/","title":{"rendered":"Exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de trigo da R\u00fassia continuam sendo o maior risco para os elevadores de trigo dos EUA"},"content":{"rendered":"

Uma modesta recupera\u00e7\u00e3o na produ\u00e7\u00e3o e fornecimento de trigo nos EUA est\u00e1 melhorando a perspectiva de lucratividade entre os elevadores de gr\u00e3os que armazenam trigo. Os carregamentos do mercado futuro melhoraram para todas as tr\u00eas principais classes de trigo e a base de compra est\u00e1 se ampliando ap\u00f3s uma colheita maior. A colheita maior segue dois anos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o ruim e uma s\u00e9rie hist\u00f3rica de mercados futuros invertidos que minaram a lucratividade do armazenamento de trigo.<\/p>\n

De acordo com um novo relat\u00f3rio do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank<\/a>, o maior risco para os elevadores no pr\u00f3ximo ano \u00e9 uma forte alta nos pre\u00e7os do trigo. Os estoques de trigo entre os principais exportadores est\u00e3o historicamente apertados, e qualquer interrup\u00e7\u00e3o no fluxo de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es russas pelo Mar Negro pode desencadear uma forte alta de pre\u00e7os.<\/p>\n

\u201cA enxurrada de trigo russo barato no mercado global pode ter criado uma falsa sensa\u00e7\u00e3o de seguran\u00e7a no mercado mundial de trigo\u201d, disse Tanner Ehmke, economista de gr\u00e3os e oleaginosas do CoBank. \u201cO maior risco de margem para armazenar trigo \u00e9 a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da safra mundial de trigo fora da R\u00fassia e da China, o que deixa o mercado vulner\u00e1vel a choques de oferta e extrema volatilidade nos pre\u00e7os do trigo.\u201d<\/p>\n

O custo de armazenamento de gr\u00e3os, incluindo trigo, permanece historicamente alto devido ao aumento acentuado nas taxas de juros. Como resultado, os elevadores ainda ter\u00e3o dificuldades para registrar lucro nos transportes mais amplos, particularmente para os trigos duros. Os elevadores que lutam para obter margem nos transportes estar\u00e3o procurando oportunidades para se beneficiar da base crescente em gr\u00e3os de propriedade da empresa durante o ano de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Colheita de trigo dos EUA<\/h2>\n

A recupera\u00e7\u00e3o na colheita de trigo dos EUA foi amplamente impulsionada por um aumento substancial na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de trigo vermelho macio de inverno no Centro-Oeste, onde os agricultores produziram a maior safra em nove anos. A colheita de trigo vermelho macio de inverno deste ano aumentou 31% ano a ano, com base nas \u00faltimas estimativas do USDA.<\/p>\n

Com amplo suprimento, os elevadores se beneficiar\u00e3o de carrys excepcionalmente amplos no mercado de futuros e da taxa de armazenamento vari\u00e1vel que adiciona cerca de 3 centavos por bushel ao spread de futuros. O trigo vermelho macio de inverno \u00e9 um trigo de baixa prote\u00edna, normalmente usado para produtos aliment\u00edcios de lanche, como biscoitos e doces.<\/p>\n

Nas Plan\u00edcies Central e Meridional, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de trigo vermelho duro de inverno perdeu rendimento significativo devido \u00e0 seca em curso. A produ\u00e7\u00e3o geral aumentou 10% ano a ano, de acordo com estimativas do USDA, com ganhos atribu\u00edveis \u00e0 expans\u00e3o da \u00e1rea cultivada. A abund\u00e2ncia de prote\u00edna na safra de trigo vermelho duro de inverno nos \u00faltimos anos resultou na queda dos pr\u00eamios de prote\u00edna. O trigo vermelho duro de inverno \u00e9 normalmente usado para p\u00e3es, p\u00e3ezinhos e rolinhos.<\/p>\n

A colheita de trigo vermelho duro de primavera nas Plan\u00edcies do Norte deve cair 7% ano a ano, apesar da \u00e1rea expandida, de acordo com o USDA. O plantio tardio seguido por seca persistente limitou os rendimentos. A colheita menor \u00e9 agravada por uma queda na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de trigo vermelho duro de primavera canadense, que deve manter os pre\u00e7os em um pr\u00eamio significativo no pr\u00f3ximo ano. O trigo vermelho duro de primavera \u00e9 um trigo rico em prote\u00ednas usado para produtos como bagels e crosta de pizza.<\/p>\n

Misturar a safra de trigo deste ano ser\u00e1 uma corda bamba para elevadores, moageiros e padeiros que s\u00e3o desafiados a encontrar trigo duro de baixa a m\u00e9dia prote\u00edna em um mercado saturado com alta prote\u00edna. Com os trigos duros sendo negociados com um pr\u00eamio consider\u00e1vel, os moageiros e padeiros ser\u00e3o motivados a misturar mais trigo vermelho macio com trigo duro. No entanto, a mistura ser\u00e1 limitada devido a diferen\u00e7as gritantes no desempenho de mistura e cozimento.<\/p>\n

Suprimentos Mundiais de Trigo<\/h2>\n

A enxurrada de trigo russo barato no mercado global, combinada com um d\u00f3lar americano forte, continua sendo um grande obst\u00e1culo para as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de trigo dos EUA. A moeda russa caiu drasticamente, 30% no acumulado do ano, colocando as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es russas \u00e0 venda e empurrando para baixo os pre\u00e7os mundiais do trigo. A R\u00fassia est\u00e1 colhendo atualmente uma safra de trigo quase recorde com estoques substanciais de sobras da colheita recorde do ano passado.<\/p>\n

Na China, o clima chuvoso durante a colheita danificou uma parcela substancial da safra de trigo chinesa, o que provavelmente resultou no aumento das importa\u00e7\u00f5es de trigo pela China.<\/p>\n

Excluindo a R\u00fassia e a China, a propor\u00e7\u00e3o de estoques de trigo para uso no mundo \u00e9 quase a mais apertada j\u00e1 registrada. A seca reduziu substancialmente o fornecimento de trigo na Argentina, Canad\u00e1 e Austr\u00e1lia. A colheita de trigo da Ucr\u00e2nia enfrenta v\u00e1rios obst\u00e1culos para ser entregue ao mercado mundial devido \u00e0 guerra R\u00fassia-Ucr\u00e2nia em andamento.<\/p>\n

O fraco desempenho da safra de trigo do Norte da \u00c1frica tamb\u00e9m se traduzir\u00e1 em maior demanda por importa\u00e7\u00f5es, assim como a proibi\u00e7\u00e3o da \u00cdndia sobre exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de arroz branco. A proibi\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 mudando a demanda por alimentos do arroz para o trigo nas principais regi\u00f5es importadoras, como o Sudeste Asi\u00e1tico e a \u00c1frica.<\/p>\n

Leia o relat\u00f3rio, Exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de trigo da R\u00fassia continuam sendo o maior risco para os elevadores de trigo dos EUA<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As perspectivas de lucratividade para o armazenamento de trigo melhoram, mas a oferta global restrita traz risco de volatilidade de pre\u00e7os.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":73234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nRussian Wheat Exports Remain Biggest Risk to U.S. Wheat Elevators - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Profitability outlook for wheat storage improves, but tight global supplies bring risk of price volatility.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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