{"id":74399,"date":"2024-01-01T16:26:04","date_gmt":"2024-01-01T21:26:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=74399"},"modified":"2024-06-17T15:35:48","modified_gmt":"2024-06-17T19:35:48","slug":"the-great-reset-in-global-agribusiness-9-black-swan-events-to-watch-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/the-great-reset-in-global-agribusiness-9-black-swan-events-to-watch-in-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"'The Great Reset' no agroneg\u00f3cio global: 9 eventos cisne negro para ficar de olho em 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nesta \u00e9poca, h\u00e1 um ano, fizemos uma previs\u00e3o para \u201cCisnes negros\u201d de 2023<\/a> \u2013 eventos imprevis\u00edveis ou n\u00e3o previstos com consequ\u00eancias extremas. A maioria desses eventos aconteceu e, como Trogele observou em um discuss\u00e3o de acompanhamento<\/a> no ver\u00e3o passado Agroneg\u00f3cio Global<\/em> C\u00fapula do Com\u00e9rcio nos dias 8 e 9 de agosto em Aventura, Fl\u00f3rida, muitos continuaram a amea\u00e7ar a ind\u00fastria global de insumos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

Quais eventos cisne negro est\u00e3o se tornando foco \u00e0 medida que nos dirigimos para 2024 e al\u00e9m? E o que podemos fazer agora para nos preparar?<\/p>\n

\"\"

Bob Trogele (\u00e0 esquerda) e Jim Sulecki apresentam seus nove Cisnes Negros para ficar de olho em 2024 e al\u00e9m.<\/p><\/div>\n

Vamos dar um nome abrangente a esses eventos e cham\u00e1-los de "a Grande Reinicializa\u00e7\u00e3o". Provavelmente, d\u00e9cadas se passaram desde que tanto tumulto abalou a agricultura global. As d\u00e9cadas de 1970 e 1980 podem ser o corol\u00e1rio mais pr\u00f3ximo dos tempos de hoje. Ent\u00e3o, como agora, a infla\u00e7\u00e3o assolou economias ao redor do mundo e a incerteza geopol\u00edtica agitou o globo. A agroind\u00fastria que quase todos n\u00f3s conhecemos e na qual passamos nossas carreiras foi moldada e remodelada em grande parte por eventos daquela \u00e9poca. Da mesma forma, os eventos desses anos do in\u00edcio e meados da d\u00e9cada de 2020 podem vir a redefinir a agricultura global por anos e d\u00e9cadas.<\/p>\n

H\u00e1 um ditado que diz que estar prevenido \u00e9 estar prevenido. Com esse esp\u00edrito, aqui est\u00e3o nossos nove Cisnes Negros para 2024 e al\u00e9m \u2013 ordenados por prioridade e urg\u00eancia com que devem ser monitorados.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 1: Estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o da Agroind\u00fastria<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A maior parte da demanda por insumos agr\u00edcolas globalmente em 2023 deve encolher 10%-30% dependendo da regi\u00e3o e do segmento. Ao mesmo tempo, as despesas \u2014 algumas fixas, como sal\u00e1rios, e algumas vari\u00e1veis, como energia \u2014 aumentaram. Este \u00e9 um raro "golpe duplo" que est\u00e1 pressionando as margens e tamb\u00e9m as avalia\u00e7\u00f5es de a\u00e7\u00f5es em todos os segmentos de fornecedores de insumos agr\u00edcolas. Espere que as empresas, em rea\u00e7\u00e3o, reduzam ainda mais as despesas operacionais em 2024, ao mesmo tempo em que fazem mudan\u00e7as estruturais, o que significa reduzir o pessoal e os investimentos de capital.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: Quanto tempo isso vai durar? <\/strong>Muito ser\u00e1 respondido por uma pergunta de acompanhamento: qual segmento? Por exemplo, em herbicidas n\u00e3o seletivos, os principais fatores seriam o pa\u00eds onde a exposi\u00e7\u00e3o mais existe (ou seja, Brasil) e a situa\u00e7\u00e3o atual do estoque do canal para o portf\u00f3lio de qualquer empresa individual l\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 2: A Desintegra\u00e7\u00e3o da China<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A China, devido \u00e0 centraliza\u00e7\u00e3o de pol\u00edticas e poder, est\u00e1 consolidando sua agroind\u00fastria dom\u00e9stica em todos os aspectos \u2013 manufatura, acesso dom\u00e9stico, regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o, etc. No curto prazo, ainda h\u00e1 uma grande quantidade de \u201ctoxicidade\u201d \u2013 ou seja, estoque de alto pre\u00e7o procurando um lar no mercado interno e\/ou de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o. Os pre\u00e7os come\u00e7aram a se recuperar, mas n\u00e3o substancialmente o suficiente para importar, e os estoques de canais globais est\u00e3o sendo reduzidos ou reacreditados. Enquanto isso, a economia chinesa ainda luta com o crescimento do PIB e a demanda estagnada ou mesmo em decl\u00ednio, incluindo na compra de commodities agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: A China ser\u00e1 um cliente e fornecedor confi\u00e1vel ou apenas um concorrente disruptivo?<\/strong> Al\u00e9m disso, com a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o dos fabricantes chineses, a \u00cdndia, que aumentou seus pr\u00f3prios ativos de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o, poder\u00e1 competir com a China para suprir a demanda global?<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 3: Energia<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo permanecem elevados devido a um embargo da R\u00fassia, um aperto no fornecimento da OPEP e reservas estrat\u00e9gicas dos EUA em n\u00edveis historicamente baixos. As tens\u00f5es no Oriente M\u00e9dio entre Ir\u00e3\/Hamas e Israel s\u00f3 colocar\u00e3o mais press\u00e3o no fornecimento global. Os EUA agora produzem mais energia do que antes da COVID, mas a capacidade de refino continua apertada, as capacidades russas impactam o fornecimento de diesel e a demanda geral por energia est\u00e1 aumentando.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: Ser\u00e1 necess\u00e1ria uma recess\u00e3o global para equilibrar a oferta e a demanda?<\/strong> Enquanto isso, a agroind\u00fastria provavelmente ver\u00e1 aumentos no custo de mat\u00e9rias-primas \u00e0 base de petr\u00f3leo, fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o, transporte, plantio, aplica\u00e7\u00f5es de insumos e colheita. A ind\u00fastria ser\u00e1 capaz de repassar esses custos aumentados aos consumidores? Se n\u00e3o, uma probabilidade, ent\u00e3o as margens diminuir\u00e3o e as despesas operacionais precisar\u00e3o ser cortadas.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 4: A Desglobaliza\u00e7\u00e3o Pol\u00edtica Levou a Guerras Comerciais e Agora a Guerra F\u00edsica<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Est\u00e1 claro agora que a guerra R\u00fassia-Ucr\u00e2nia n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 resolvida em curto prazo e que um resultado claro n\u00e3o est\u00e1 \u00e0 vista. Com uma "guerra" estourando na Faixa de Gaza, a situa\u00e7\u00e3o na porta da Europa se torna ainda mais cr\u00edtica, e mesmo que o continente seja desafiado pelo aumento da imigra\u00e7\u00e3o, pelo aperto no fornecimento de energia e pelo envelhecimento da popula\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: Como a desglobaliza\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica afetar\u00e1 a agroind\u00fastria no m\u00e9dio prazo?<\/strong> As regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es da UE sobre os n\u00edveis m\u00e1ximos de res\u00edduos (MRLs) est\u00e3o causando estragos entre produtores e fornecedores globalmente. Tend\u00eancias nacionalistas recentes est\u00e3o surgindo \u2013 por exemplo, aumento dos controles de fronteira e boicotes de gr\u00e3os ucranianos e petr\u00f3leo russo. Al\u00e9m disso, os europeus parecem querer favorecer o combate \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas em detrimento de outras prioridades e impor essa dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 agroind\u00fastria globalmente. Certo ou errado, o custo de fazer neg\u00f3cios para produtores e fornecedores na agroind\u00fastria est\u00e1 aumentando mais r\u00e1pido do que os pre\u00e7os para os consumidores. O modelo europeu continua a causar s\u00e9rios danos \u00e0 comunidade do agroneg\u00f3cio em toda a mudan\u00e7a de valor. Enquanto isso, como as guerras em Israel-Gaza e Sud\u00e3o afetar\u00e3o o transporte pelo Canal de Suez?<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 5: Infla\u00e7\u00e3o da Taxa de Juros<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Os bancos federais das na\u00e7\u00f5es ocidentais continuam a mirar uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o de dois por cento. O alto custo para tomar dinheiro emprestado ter\u00e1 um grande impacto no fluxo de caixa das empresas, e em particular do agroneg\u00f3cio que n\u00e3o tem balan\u00e7os patrimoniais ou fluxo de caixa fortes. O dinheiro \u00e9 um fator-chave de sucesso.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: Quando o aumento das taxas de juros ser\u00e1 revertido, com que rapidez e que efeito essa revers\u00e3o ter\u00e1 no com\u00e9rcio internacional?<\/strong> Hoje vemos o \u00edndice do d\u00f3lar cair mesmo com o Federal Reserve Bank dos EUA continuando a aumentar as taxas, e o Tesouro dos EUA deve levantar $1,6 trilh\u00e3o emitindo novos t\u00edtulos. E ainda assim, historicamente estamos em taxas de juros m\u00e9dias. Portanto, a agroind\u00fastria deve transitar por uma s\u00e9rie de desafios.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 6: Migra\u00e7\u00e3o Laboral<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A urbaniza\u00e7\u00e3o causou a escassez m\u00e1xima de m\u00e3o de obra para a agricultura em muitas \u00e1reas do mundo, especialmente no Hemisf\u00e9rio Ocidental. A mecaniza\u00e7\u00e3o e a automa\u00e7\u00e3o resolveram muitos problemas \u00e0 medida que a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o de produtores continua ao redor do mundo e as economias de escala se tornam necess\u00e1rias para que os agricultores possam competir globalmente. Mesmo assim, certos tipos de m\u00e3o de obra permanecem escassos nas \u00e1reas rurais.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: A migra\u00e7\u00e3o global do sul para o norte resolver\u00e1 o problema? <\/strong>Ou a ind\u00fastria precisar\u00e1 se consolidar ainda mais ou automatizar mais agressivamente por meio da tecnologia, por exemplo, por meio da rob\u00f3tica? A resposta prov\u00e1vel \u00e9: todas as op\u00e7\u00f5es acima.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 7: Volatilidade Clim\u00e1tica<\/strong><\/h2>\n

A luta da humanidade para controlar o meio ambiente remonta \u00e0 inven\u00e7\u00e3o do fogo. Bilh\u00f5es est\u00e3o sendo investidos para controlar e parar o que n\u00f3s, humanos, acreditamos ser o aquecimento global. Somente a Alemanha, nos \u00faltimos quarenta anos, gastou mais de um trilh\u00e3o de euros para atingir aproximadamente 25% de fornecimento de energia a partir de combust\u00edveis alternativos. Alem\u00e3es com combust\u00edveis f\u00f3sseis limitados, que s\u00e3o inventores e engenheiros fant\u00e1sticos, t\u00eam lutado para encontrar a bala de prata. Acordos clim\u00e1ticos foram firmados e depois ignorados pelos piores poluidores do mundo. Pa\u00edses do terceiro mundo querem que na\u00e7\u00f5es mais ricas paguem pela mitiga\u00e7\u00e3o do aquecimento global e sabemos onde isso acaba: na terceiriza\u00e7\u00e3o de m\u00e3o de obra.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave 1: Como os produtores lidar\u00e3o com o aumento das regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es governamentais na fazenda?<\/strong> E quanto aos fabricantes de fertilizantes e produtos qu\u00edmicos? Novamente, o custo est\u00e1 subindo mais r\u00e1pido do que as margens. Podemos bancar a mudan\u00e7a para fontes de energia \u201cmais limpas\u201d? E isso vai funcionar?<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave dois<\/strong>: O efeito do El Ni\u00f1o continuar\u00e1 a perturbar os principais sistemas fluviais americanos e a perturbar ainda mais o Canal do Panam\u00e1? A agricultura global depende de um sistema est\u00e1vel de transporte aqu\u00e1tico para movimentar produtos b\u00e1sicos a granel para onde h\u00e1 demanda.<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 8: Press\u00e3o Regulat\u00f3ria Cont\u00ednua<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Nossa agroind\u00fastria altamente regulamentada est\u00e1 sob ainda mais escrut\u00ednio do que nunca. Resumindo: mais regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es resultam em mais custos ao longo da cadeia de valor. Certas \u00e1reas do mundo, como os EUA e a UE, se tornar\u00e3o cada vez mais e at\u00e9 mesmo totalmente n\u00e3o competitivas. Testemunhe a mudan\u00e7a da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de culturas em linha para a Am\u00e9rica do Sul e a mudan\u00e7a na fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o de insumos qu\u00edmicos para o Leste. Al\u00e9m disso, regi\u00f5es que t\u00eam popula\u00e7\u00f5es em decl\u00ednio e riqueza herdada est\u00e3o menos preocupadas hoje com a seguran\u00e7a alimentar e o custo dos alimentos e, portanto, est\u00e3o menos inclinadas do que podem ter sido no passado a se preocupar com a terceiriza\u00e7\u00e3o e a deslocaliza\u00e7\u00e3o da produ\u00e7\u00e3o de alimentos.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: Os pa\u00edses da UE e os EUA conseguem manter sua pegada agr\u00edcola?<\/strong> Especialmente se a desglobaliza\u00e7\u00e3o e a desestabiliza\u00e7\u00e3o de na\u00e7\u00f5es, por exemplo a Ucr\u00e2nia, podem causar escassez. Al\u00e9m disso, como o custo dos alimentos aumentou, tamb\u00e9m aumentou a demanda por alimentos saud\u00e1veis da moda, especialmente entre a popula\u00e7\u00e3o mais jovem. Podemos arcar com esse custo de excesso regulat\u00f3rio "emocional" da UE e demandas de consumidores que mudam os custos?<\/p>\n

Cisne Negro 9: A tecnologia continua a avan\u00e7ar para o agroneg\u00f3cio e a agroind\u00fastria<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Com grandes empresas investindo e continuando a investir em tecnologia \u2013 por exemplo, a $300 milh\u00f5es Nutrien gastou<\/a> em solu\u00e7\u00f5es digitais e sua equipe de dados nos \u00faltimos cinco anos \u2013 a tend\u00eancia \u00e9 clara: a intelig\u00eancia artificial impulsionar\u00e1 ainda mais a forma como os neg\u00f3cios s\u00e3o executados na porteira da fazenda. Por exemplo, revendedores de equipamentos est\u00e3o assinando visorPro.ai<\/a> da start-up canadense AGvisorPRO para que seus t\u00e9cnicos possam fazer qualquer pergunta de suporte a uma IA poderosa usando uma interface de bate-papo. Outras empresas continuam a levantar dinheiro, como a start-up Rantizo, cuja recente Expans\u00e3o de financiamento de $6 milh\u00f5es<\/a> tem como objetivo ajudar varejistas agr\u00edcolas a dimensionar a automa\u00e7\u00e3o de aplica\u00e7\u00f5es a\u00e9reas de drones.<\/p>\n

Pergunta-chave: A agroind\u00fastria como um todo surfar\u00e1 na onda inicial da IA pr\u00e1tica? <\/strong>Ou ficar sentado com uma atitude de esperar para ver? Se as margens permanecerem apertadas, a melhor aposta provavelmente \u00e9 a primeira tanto quanto a \u00faltima.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Quais eventos cisne negro est\u00e3o se tornando foco \u00e0 medida que nos dirigimos para 2024 e al\u00e9m? E o que podemos fazer agora para nos preparar?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":74401,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,4,5],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-74399","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-markets","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\n'The Great Reset' in Global Agribusiness: 9 Black Swan Events to Watch in 2024 - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What black swan events are coming into focus as we head into 2024 and beyond? 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