{"id":75063,"date":"2024-01-30T10:40:47","date_gmt":"2024-01-30T15:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=75063"},"modified":"2024-01-30T10:43:03","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T15:43:03","slug":"china-price-index-2024-reorganization-of-the-pesticide-supply-chain-in-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/china-price-index-2024-reorganization-of-the-pesticide-supply-chain-in-china\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os da China: 2024 Reorganiza\u00e7\u00e3o da Cadeia de Fornecimento de Pesticidas na China"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os dos principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu boletim mensal\u00a0<\/em>\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/em><\/strong><\/a>. Abaixo, ele tamb\u00e9m fornece insights sobre como as empresas globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisar\u00e3o ajustar sua estrat\u00e9gia de cadeia de suprimentos em 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

O Ano do Drag\u00e3o, o Ano Novo Chin\u00eas, est\u00e1 se aproximando rapidamente. Na mente chinesa, o Ano do Drag\u00e3o ter\u00e1 mudan\u00e7as dr\u00e1sticas. Ele tamb\u00e9m sinaliza que 2024 provavelmente enfrentar\u00e1 muitas oportunidades. Para os praticantes de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, pode ser um ano de come\u00e7os para uma nova era.<\/p>\n

Em 2023, a ind\u00fastria de pesticidas da China pode ser resumida em duas palavras: excesso de capacidade<\/a> e colapso de pre\u00e7os. Diante de um mercado de competi\u00e7\u00e3o total, as equipes da cadeia de suprimentos global podem estar enfrentando uma das quest\u00f5es mais dif\u00edceis de todas: como reorganizar suas Estrat\u00e9gia da cadeia de suprimentos da China<\/a>?<\/p>\n

A estrutura geral da cadeia de suprimentos para empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos no exterior consiste em tr\u00eas componentes principais: Primeiro, a dimens\u00e3o do mercado. Isso inclui o estabelecimento e o gerenciamento de processos corporativos padronizados, o gerenciamento de categorias de produtos e a defini\u00e7\u00e3o de n\u00edveis razo\u00e1veis de fornecedores.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Quadro 1: Estrutura da cadeia de suprimentos em tr\u00eas dimens\u00f5es<\/p><\/div>\n

A segunda \u00e9 a dimens\u00e3o empresarial. Isso inclui uma previs\u00e3o mais precisa da demanda de vendas, compreens\u00e3o mais precisa das tend\u00eancias futuras de fornecimento de mat\u00e9rias-primas essenciais, ao mesmo tempo em que controla o risco de fornecimento. O planejamento de estoque \u00e9 o mais importante, pois afeta diretamente a execu\u00e7\u00e3o do fornecimento e das vendas do produto. Consequentemente, o planejamento adequado de estoque ter\u00e1 um impacto maior na lucratividade. Al\u00e9m disso, as vari\u00e1veis de risco tiveram que ser gerenciadas durante a execu\u00e7\u00e3o das estrat\u00e9gias da cadeia de suprimentos, como a libera\u00e7\u00e3o de nova capacidade de fornecedores, o surgimento de novos fornecedores da China, flutua\u00e7\u00f5es nos pre\u00e7os de mat\u00e9rias-primas, flutua\u00e7\u00f5es no custo do frete e o impacto de longo prazo da geopol\u00edtica no fornecimento.<\/p>\n

A terceira parte \u00e9 a dimens\u00e3o do fornecimento. Isso inclui o gerenciamento de categorias de mat\u00e9rias-primas. Com base na demanda do mercado, as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisam ajustar a pondera\u00e7\u00e3o do volume da categoria e da import\u00e2ncia da categoria. Para minimizar o risco comercial de uma empresa de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, seria necess\u00e1rio avaliar racionalmente o investimento de capital. No ambiente de mudan\u00e7a clim\u00e1tica global e incerteza na demanda do mercado, h\u00e1 uma mudan\u00e7a de ativos pesados para ativos leves para otimizar a cadeia de suprimentos. Como voc\u00ea utiliza o investimento de capital de empresas chinesas e os aninha nas vantagens competitivas das empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos? Esta \u00e9 uma quest\u00e3o a ser considerada profundamente.<\/p>\n

De 2022 a 2023, o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos muda de alto estoque para desinvent\u00e1rio. A disponibilidade de produtos est\u00e1 se tornando cada vez mais importante nas estrat\u00e9gias da cadeia de suprimentos. Uma iniciativa importante para estimular o consumo de canais \u00e9 fornecer aos agricultores os produtos de que eles precisam. A mudan\u00e7a na demanda est\u00e1 for\u00e7ando ajustes nas estrat\u00e9gias de distribui\u00e7\u00e3o de canais. Se fizermos um quadrante de n\u00edveis de estoque e disponibilidade de produtos, o mercado de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos em 2024 est\u00e1 se movendo do quadrante \u201cAlto estoque + Alta disponibilidade de carga\u201d para o quadrante \u201cBaixo estoque + Alta disponibilidade de carga\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Gr\u00e1fico 2: Diagrama de quadrantes de estoque e disponibilidade de bens<\/p><\/div>\n

O desabastecimento ocorre ao longo de um certo per\u00edodo de tempo. Para empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, a estrat\u00e9gia de desabastecimento \u00e9 baseada em tr\u00eas aspectos principais: Primeiro, \u00e9 acelerar o ciclo de rotatividade da cadeia de suprimentos. Do mercado chin\u00eas de fornecimento de pesticidas, podemos ver facilmente que as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos, incluindo multinacionais, est\u00e3o descentralizando seus pedidos de compra de longo prazo em pedidos de lotes menores. Isso \u00e9 usado por um lado para lidar com os pre\u00e7os baixos cont\u00ednuos de pesticidas na China, juntamente com a incerteza dos pre\u00e7os de mercado ap\u00f3s a expans\u00e3o da nova capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o. Por outro lado, tamb\u00e9m pode acelerar a rotatividade de mercadorias na cadeia de suprimentos das empresas, reduzindo assim o custo geral da cadeia de suprimentos.<\/p>\n

Em segundo lugar, as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisam gerenciar a incerteza na cadeia de suprimentos. O primeiro passo \u00e9 melhorar a precis\u00e3o das previs\u00f5es de vendas. Embora seja dif\u00edcil atingir a precis\u00e3o de 100%, essa dire\u00e7\u00e3o estrat\u00e9gica pelo menos pressiona a equipe de vendas. Al\u00e9m disso, as equipes de sourcing e aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e3o se esfor\u00e7ando para monitorar as mudan\u00e7as no mercado chin\u00eas. A competi\u00e7\u00e3o entre fornecedores tradicionais e novos na China est\u00e1 impulsionando a reorganiza\u00e7\u00e3o dos recursos da cadeia de suprimentos na China. Obter de forma sustent\u00e1vel a vantagem da cadeia de suprimentos da China \u00e9 a chave para determinar a sa\u00edda da competi\u00e7\u00e3o acirrada no mercado em 2024. O recente aumento da incerteza na regi\u00e3o do Mar Vermelho levou a um aumento de 200% nas taxas de frete nas rotas europeias em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o mesmo per\u00edodo do m\u00eas passado. As taxas de frete na rota da China para a Am\u00e9rica do Norte tamb\u00e9m aumentaram em cerca de 140%. A incerteza do custo de envio globalmente est\u00e1 aumentando.<\/p>\n

\"\"

Gr\u00e1fico 3: \u00cdndice B\u00e1ltico Freightos (FBX)<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, alguns distribuidores estrangeiros est\u00e3o fortalecendo ativamente suas equipes de cadeia de suprimentos na China em termos de recursos humanos. Por exemplo, alguns distribuidores norte-americanos est\u00e3o dispostos a se expandir para o mercado sul-americano e, portanto, precisam aumentar seus diversidade<\/a> de categorias de produtos. Requer que equipes de cadeia de suprimentos e equipes de sourcing mais experientes da China se juntem a elas. Ao mesmo tempo, a equipe de intelig\u00eancia de mercado de suprimentos est\u00e1 se tornando cada vez mais cr\u00edtica no sistema geral da cadeia de suprimentos. Dentro das empresas internacionais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos de hoje, a equipe de sourcing e a equipe de intelig\u00eancia de mercado de suprimentos s\u00e3o dois pilares indispens\u00e1veis para o sucesso. Correspondentemente, a introdu\u00e7\u00e3o de novas equipes trar\u00e1 mudan\u00e7as no comportamento organizacional. Os mecanismos de tomada de decis\u00e3o ser\u00e3o influenciados. A precis\u00e3o da an\u00e1lise preditiva da organiza\u00e7\u00e3o para o futuro ser\u00e1 inestim\u00e1vel para a tomada de decis\u00f5es da cadeia de suprimentos e economia de custos da cadeia de suprimentos.<\/p>\n

Em 2024, o momento da demanda global provavelmente ser\u00e1 no Q3 para Q4. Al\u00e9m de controlar os estoques, o momento das compras tamb\u00e9m precisa ser avaliado. \u00c0 medida que os pre\u00e7os atingem o fundo do po\u00e7o no mercado de suprimentos chin\u00eas, muitos fabricantes est\u00e3o ajustando suas taxas de opera\u00e7\u00e3o em resposta. Devido \u00e0 efeito chicote<\/a> na cadeia de suprimentos, os pre\u00e7os de mat\u00e9rias-primas e intermedi\u00e1rios upstream est\u00e3o se movendo inversamente ao mercado de IA downstream. Depois de experimentar menor demanda em 2023, os fabricantes de mat\u00e9rias-primas e intermedi\u00e1rios ver\u00e3o suas taxas de opera\u00e7\u00e3o diminu\u00edrem de acordo com a lenta demanda downstream.<\/p>\n

Portanto, no est\u00e1gio inicial da libera\u00e7\u00e3o da demanda no exterior em 2024, o mercado de fornecimento de mat\u00e9ria-prima da China provavelmente passar\u00e1 por um processo de aumento de pre\u00e7os. No entanto, com a libera\u00e7\u00e3o total da capacidade de fornecimento no mercado, o pre\u00e7o do fornecimento ainda retornar\u00e1 \u00e0 faixa razo\u00e1vel de equil\u00edbrio entre oferta e demanda. A economia oportuna de custos de fornecimento e aquisi\u00e7\u00e3o se tornar\u00e1 uma compensa\u00e7\u00e3o para as empresas de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos.<\/p>\n

Em termos de regi\u00f5es de vendas, o mercado europeu provavelmente ver\u00e1 uma chegada antecipada da demanda devido \u00e0 crise do Mar Vermelho. O mercado norte-americano provavelmente ver\u00e1 uma demanda mais otimista do que o esperado ap\u00f3s voltar aos trilhos. A demanda sul-americana e a demanda asi\u00e1tica ser\u00e3o liberadas suavemente. A vantagem de pre\u00e7o e o efeito de escala dos pesticidas chineses economizar\u00e3o mais custos para os agricultores globais para a temporada de plantio de 2024. Al\u00e9m das IAs, a capacidade de IAs patenteadas quase prontas ser\u00e1 liberada centralmente em 2025-2026. No longo prazo, o ajuste e a mudan\u00e7a de layout das empresas globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos na cadeia de suprimentos da China permanecem inevit\u00e1veis.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O colaborador David Li compartilha insights sobre como as empresas globais de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos precisar\u00e3o ajustar sua estrat\u00e9gia de cadeia de suprimentos em 2024.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":67003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,4,28,5,1849,1882],"tags":[1836,54],"class_list":["post-75063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-markets","category-sourcing-insider","category-sourcing-insider-china","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: 2024 Reorganization of the Pesticide Supply Chain in China - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Contributor David Li shares insight into how global crop protection companies will need 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