{"id":75985,"date":"2024-05-20T12:00:05","date_gmt":"2024-05-20T16:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=75985"},"modified":"2024-05-20T13:02:28","modified_gmt":"2024-05-20T17:02:28","slug":"agribusiness-in-mercosur-why-new-strategies-are-a-must-in-a-uncertain-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/agribusiness-in-mercosur-why-new-strategies-are-a-must-in-a-uncertain-world\/","title":{"rendered":"Agroneg\u00f3cio no Mercosul: Por que novas estrat\u00e9gias s\u00e3o essenciais em um mundo incerto"},"content":{"rendered":"

O estado atual Mercosul<\/a> as rela\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais enfrentam muitos desafios.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m do impacto global da guerra R\u00fassia-Ucr\u00e2nia, a guerra entre Israel e Hamas, bem como entre Ir\u00e3 e Israel, est\u00e3o apresentando preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es. Paralelamente, os EUA e a China continuam a ter diferen\u00e7as e os medos de conflito na \u00c1sia-Pac\u00edfico est\u00e3o aumentando.<\/p>\n

Durante 2024, haver\u00e1 mais de 100 elei\u00e7\u00f5es de parlamentos e mais de 60 para presidentes ao redor do globo. As rela\u00e7\u00f5es comerciais e de neg\u00f3cios s\u00e3o afetadas por quest\u00f5es pol\u00edticas e geopol\u00edticas, bem como pelo crescimento econ\u00f4mico. As rela\u00e7\u00f5es comerciais do Mercosul com as economias centrais, como a China, s\u00e3o influenciadas por esses eventos pol\u00edticos e geopol\u00edticos.<\/p>\n

Acordos Internacionais do Mercosul<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O Mercado Comum do Sul (Mercosul por suas iniciais em espanhol) \u00e9 um processo de integra\u00e7\u00e3o regional, estabelecido pela Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai em 26 de mar\u00e7o de 1991, e posteriormente unido pela Venezuela e Bol\u00edvia. No caso da Venezuela, este pa\u00eds est\u00e1 suspenso devido a quest\u00f5es pol\u00edticas associadas ao governo Maduro, e a Bol\u00edvia ainda est\u00e1 cumprindo com o procedimento de ades\u00e3o para se tornar um membro pleno.<\/p>\n

Quando falamos do Mercosul, devemos levar em conta que \u00e9 um dos grupos comerciais mais fechados do mundo, n\u00e3o apenas em termos de n\u00famero de acordos de livre com\u00e9rcio, mas tamb\u00e9m, medidas n\u00e3o tarif\u00e1rias e tarifas m\u00e9dias, o dobro das tarifas do resto do mundo. Para nossa regi\u00e3o \u00e9 especialmente importante vender a produ\u00e7\u00e3o, e \u00e9 um ponto-chave que continuemos promovendo de associa\u00e7\u00f5es privadas e c\u00e2maras industriais.<\/p>\n

Em termos da agenda internacional do Mercosul, o bloco fechou recentemente um acordo com Cingapura. Tem negocia\u00e7\u00f5es abertas com o Canad\u00e1, a Associa\u00e7\u00e3o Europeia de Livre Com\u00e9rcio (EFTA), a Uni\u00e3o Europeia (UE), a Coreia do Sul e o L\u00edbano. A negocia\u00e7\u00e3o mais importante para a regi\u00e3o \u00e9 com a UE, mas recentemente na reuni\u00e3o de Macron e Lula no Brasil, foi confirmado que o acordo entre UE e MERCOSUL<\/a>, n\u00e3o ir\u00e1 adiante, pelo menos no curto e m\u00e9dio prazo. No bloco econ\u00f4mico sul, e tamb\u00e9m do lado dos EUA, um acordo de livre com\u00e9rcio entre esses dois atores n\u00e3o est\u00e1 na agenda.<\/p>\n

Devido aos resultados limitados do Mercosul na agenda internacional e levando em conta o novo fracasso das negocia\u00e7\u00f5es com a UE, a regi\u00e3o est\u00e1 reestrategizando as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es. A primeira op\u00e7\u00e3o para nossa regi\u00e3o, e para o Uruguai, \u00e9 a China, que continua sendo o principal mercado de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de todos os pa\u00edses sul-americanos.<\/p>\n

Embora o crescimento da China seja menor do que antes, ele ainda \u00e9 maior do que o da UE e dos EUA (em torno de 4,5% para 2024 e 2025). Muitas empresas est\u00e3o focadas em tentar aprofundar o relacionamento entre o Mercosul e a China durante esta nova fase da economia chinesa.<\/p>\n

\"Figure

Fonte: IFM<\/p><\/div>\n

A rea\u00e7\u00e3o do Mercosul \u00e0 China, na \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o pol\u00edtica dos pa\u00edses do Mercosul mais Bol\u00edvia e Chile, podemos confirmar que a maior economia da \u00c1sia n\u00e3o est\u00e1 na agenda do Mercosul. Podemos ver muitas boas inten\u00e7\u00f5es no t\u00f3pico das negocia\u00e7\u00f5es do FTA, mas n\u00e3o podemos ver nenhum resultado. Em julho pr\u00f3ximo, o Paraguai transferir\u00e1 a presid\u00eancia tempor\u00e1ria para o Uruguai pelos pr\u00f3ximos seis meses, ent\u00e3o \u00e9 um bom desafio para o Uruguai tentar lan\u00e7ar um di\u00e1logo entre a China e o Mercosul.<\/p>\n

As rela\u00e7\u00f5es entre Mercosul e China t\u00eam que ser muito pragm\u00e1ticas porque o Paraguai tem rela\u00e7\u00f5es diplom\u00e1ticas com Taiwan, e o novo governo de Milei mostra profundas diferen\u00e7as com a China. No caso do Brasil, al\u00e9m das fortes rela\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas e pol\u00edticas do Brasil com a China (ambos os pa\u00edses s\u00e3o membros do BRICS), o governo Lula est\u00e1 longe de assinar um TLC com a economia asi\u00e1tica. \u00c9 por isso que o Uruguai est\u00e1 exigindo a flexibilidade do Mercosul para avan\u00e7ar com a China em um acordo bilateral, para o qual j\u00e1 assinou um acordo de viabilidade.<\/p>\n

Nova Agenda<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Independentemente da estrat\u00e9gia com a China, abrir a economia para outras regi\u00f5es \u00e9 necess\u00e1rio. Por exemplo, o Mercosul pode aprofundar a rela\u00e7\u00e3o com a \u00cdndia, que crescer\u00e1 mais de 6% seu produto interno bruto (PIB) e est\u00e1 se tornando grande compradora de alimentos. Tamb\u00e9m n\u00e3o devemos esquecer as economias da \u00c1frica e os 10 pa\u00edses da ASEAN (Associa\u00e7\u00e3o das Na\u00e7\u00f5es do Sudeste Asi\u00e1tico) que foram criados na d\u00e9cada de 1960 e t\u00eam enorme potencial em crescimento econ\u00f4mico e populacional.<\/p>\n

A regi\u00e3o do Mercosul, que produz alimentos, deve ser uma \u00e1rea-chave do mundo, onde as empresas precisam aumentar os esfor\u00e7os. O Mercosul, como um bloco, est\u00e1 tentando iniciar conversas com a Indon\u00e9sia. Este \u00e9 um bom come\u00e7o, mas as conversas precisam ir mais longe na constru\u00e7\u00e3o de relacionamentos com a Tail\u00e2ndia, Mal\u00e1sia, Filipinas e Vietn\u00e3 (o bloco j\u00e1 fechou um FTA com Cingapura). Estamos falando de 600 milh\u00f5es de pessoas que precisam garantir sua seguran\u00e7a alimentar. As economias da \u00c1sia-Pac\u00edfico explicar\u00e3o mais de 60% do aumento do PIB nas pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas. Os pa\u00edses da Am\u00e9rica Latina e os membros do Mercosul se beneficiar\u00e3o no suporte a esses consumidores.<\/p>\n

Novas Estrat\u00e9gias<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Precisamos promover novas estrat\u00e9gias para um novo mundo, especialmente para o novo contexto global, crise ambiental, novas dificuldades log\u00edsticas (pre\u00e7os de fretes da \u00c1sia para a Am\u00e9rica do Sul est\u00e3o em n\u00edveis hist\u00f3ricos), e incidentes futuros esperados podem gerar novos aumentos de pre\u00e7o a qualquer momento. A incerteza veio para ficar.<\/p>\n

\"Figure

Fonte: Statista.<\/p><\/div>\n

A maneira como os agricultores do Mercosul mitigam os riscos \u00e9 importante, como explorar novas culturas e contratos futuros que permitem fixar pre\u00e7os mais cedo. Produtores acessando seguros ou mesmo aumentando a irriga\u00e7\u00e3o nas culturas, essas solu\u00e7\u00f5es eram impens\u00e1veis anos antes \u2014 agora s\u00e3o poss\u00edveis. Um bom exemplo \u00e9 a evolu\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado de gr\u00e3os, que depende de muitos fatores, incluindo operadores em toda a cadeia de suprimentos, e tamb\u00e9m problemas geopol\u00edticos que afetam os custos de frete.<\/p>\n

Problemas geopol\u00edticos<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Os custos de frete que aumentaram devido \u00e0 guerra no Oriente M\u00e9dio, na Ucr\u00e2nia e na R\u00fassia, aos desafios nas mudan\u00e7as clim\u00e1ticas, ao uso de novas estrat\u00e9gias em cultivos, produtos biol\u00f3gicos e ao uso do crescimento tecnol\u00f3gico na agricultura ser\u00e3o especialmente importantes.<\/p>\n

Devemos assumir que o contexto internacional manter\u00e1 os pre\u00e7os das commodities e da log\u00edstica em patamares elevados, mas com flutua\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

\"Figure

Fonte: FAO.<\/p><\/div>\n

Rela\u00e7\u00f5es entre fabricantes de suprimentos na China e na \u00cdndia com distribuidores no exterior<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Se houver excesso de capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, n\u00e3o \u00e9 um grande problema. Se houver falta de um determinado ingrediente ativo, ser\u00e1 um fator-chave para o desenvolvimento do neg\u00f3cio. Para enfrentar essas dificuldades, \u00e9 importante se conhecer. Durante a pandemia, as empresas que t\u00eam relacionamentos regulares com a cadeia conseguiram suportar a crise. Isso provou que ter um profundo entendimento um do outro resolver\u00e1 muitos problemas que podem acontecer.<\/p>\n

Vivemos em um mundo incerto, o que nos obriga a implementar novas estrat\u00e9gias e imaginar cen\u00e1rios diferentes para continuar operando. O desafio \u00e9 para os governos, mas tamb\u00e9m para o setor privado.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Um mundo incerto nos obriga a implementar novas estrat\u00e9gias e imaginar diferentes cen\u00e1rios globais para continuar operando, diz Nicolas Potrie, da TAFIREL.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":70926,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,26,5],"tags":[54],"class_list":["post-75985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-americas","category-markets","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nAgribusiness in Mercosur: Why New Strategies Are a Must in a Uncertain World - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An uncertain world forces us to deploy new strategies and imagine different global scenarios to continue operating, says TAFIREL's Nicolas Potrie.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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