{"id":78142,"date":"2024-12-12T15:19:31","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T20:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=78142"},"modified":"2024-12-17T11:05:58","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T16:05:58","slug":"cobank-releases-2025-year-ahead-report-forces-that-will-shape-the-u-s-rural-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/cobank-releases-2025-year-ahead-report-forces-that-will-shape-the-u-s-rural-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"CoBank divulga relat\u00f3rio do ano de 2025 \u2013 For\u00e7as que moldar\u00e3o a economia rural dos EUA"},"content":{"rendered":"

Os EUA continuam a se beneficiar de um crescimento econ\u00f4mico s\u00f3lido, baixo desemprego e infla\u00e7\u00e3o moderada. Do ponto de vista de hoje, a economia dos EUA parece prov\u00e1vel que continue nessa trajet\u00f3ria at\u00e9 2025. No entanto, a perspectiva para a economia rural \u00e9 mais vol\u00e1til e incerta. As ind\u00fastrias rurais est\u00e3o desproporcionalmente expostas \u00e0 pol\u00edtica federal, e o resultado do ciclo eleitoral de 2024 promete trazer mudan\u00e7as significativas na abordagem do governo federal para tudo, desde com\u00e9rcio internacional e imigra\u00e7\u00e3o at\u00e9 explora\u00e7\u00e3o de energia e desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico rural.<\/p>\n

De acordo com um plano abrangente para o ano que vem relat\u00f3rio de perspectivas<\/a> do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank, o alto n\u00edvel de incerteza pol\u00edtica enfrentado pelas ind\u00fastrias rurais aumenta sua j\u00e1 longa lista de obst\u00e1culos e desafios.<\/p>\n

\u201cO ambiente em que entraremos em 2025 ainda n\u00e3o est\u00e1 totalmente definido, mas muitas das pol\u00edticas propostas pela nova administra\u00e7\u00e3o provavelmente teriam um impacto negativo na agricultura dos EUA\u201d, disse Rob Raposa<\/a>, diretor do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank. \u201cO acesso aberto aos mercados de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o e a disponibilidade de m\u00e3o de obra s\u00e3o extremamente importantes para produtores e processadores agr\u00edcolas. Dependendo de como a pol\u00edtica se desenrolar, essas duas \u00e1reas podem ser grandes desafios em 2025 e al\u00e9m.\u201d<\/p>\n

O relat\u00f3rio de perspectivas do CoBank para 2025 examina v\u00e1rios fatores-chave que moldar\u00e3o os setores agr\u00edcolas e de mercado que atendem comunidades rurais nos EUA:<\/p>\n

Economia dos EUA: Uma nova era econ\u00f4mica come\u00e7a<\/h2>\n

A maioria dos economistas est\u00e1 prevendo um crescimento do PIB dos EUA em 2025 em torno de 2,5%-3,0%, essencialmente o mesmo de hoje. No entanto, essas previs\u00f5es s\u00e3o baseadas em suposi\u00e7\u00f5es bastante brandas sobre as pr\u00f3ximas mudan\u00e7as de pol\u00edtica. Quando tomadas isoladamente, as pol\u00edticas propostas pelo presidente eleito Trump \u2014 cortes de impostos, redu\u00e7\u00e3o da oferta de m\u00e3o de obra e tarifas sobre produtos importados \u2014 s\u00e3o todas inflacion\u00e1rias. Consequentemente, as taxas de juros de longo prazo j\u00e1 subiram um pouco, e o mercado reduziu as expectativas de mais cortes nas taxas do Fed em 2025. H\u00e1 uma boa chance de que as tarifas propostas e a repress\u00e3o aos imigrantes sem documentos sejam mais perturbadoras do que os mercados precificaram, particularmente em setores como constru\u00e7\u00e3o e agricultura.<\/p>\n

Governo dos EUA: Administra\u00e7\u00e3o Trump e Congresso prontos para in\u00edcio de janeiro agitado<\/h2>\n

Espera-se que o Congresso encerre a sess\u00e3o de pato manco do 118\u00ba Congresso at\u00e9 19 de dezembro, com sorte abordando importantes partes de neg\u00f3cios inacabados. Uma extens\u00e3o de um ano do Farm Bill de 2018 \u00e9 cada vez mais prov\u00e1vel. Espera-se que o presidente eleito Trump busque ambiciosos primeiros 100 dias de ordens executivas e outras atividades legislativas que provavelmente incluir\u00e3o muitas de suas promessas de campanha. Isso pode incluir esfor\u00e7os significativos de deporta\u00e7\u00e3o e reforma da imigra\u00e7\u00e3o, implementa\u00e7\u00e3o de tarifas, extens\u00e3o dos cortes de impostos de 2017 e fornecimento de al\u00edvio regulat\u00f3rio revertendo as iniciativas do governo Biden. O 119\u00ba Congresso ter\u00e1 uma longa e desafiadora lista de tarefas quando os membros retornarem a Washington em 3 de janeiro.<\/p>\n

Economia agr\u00edcola dos EUA: guerra comercial pode levar a economia agr\u00edcola de mal a pior<\/h2>\n

O curto boom das commodities precipitado pelas secas globais, a guerra na Ucr\u00e2nia e os problemas de fornecimento da COVID-19 agora s\u00e3o uma mem\u00f3ria distante. Os pre\u00e7os das culturas em linha ca\u00edram quase 50% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s m\u00e1ximas de 2022. Mas os custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o permaneceram elevados e a lucratividade caiu para m\u00ednimas de mais de uma d\u00e9cada. O lado positivo \u00e9 que os produtores de latic\u00ednios e gado s\u00e3o geralmente lucrativos devido aos baixos custos de ra\u00e7\u00e3o e \u00e0 demanda resiliente do consumidor. No entanto, mais ventos contr\u00e1rios podem estar chegando para os setores de cultivo e gado. O presidente eleito Trump chegou \u00e0 vit\u00f3ria em duas principais propostas de pol\u00edtica econ\u00f4mica: promulgar tarifas de importa\u00e7\u00e3o significativas e reduzir a imigra\u00e7\u00e3o enquanto deportava residentes indocumentados. Em teoria, essas pol\u00edticas poderiam atingir alguns objetivos limitados, mas \u00e9 dif\u00edcil pint\u00e1-las como algo que n\u00e3o seja negativo para a economia agr\u00edcola dos EUA.<\/p>\n

Gr\u00e3os, Abastecimento Agr\u00edcola e Biocombust\u00edveis: Incerteza Pol\u00edtica Pesa Sobre Exporta\u00e7\u00f5es e Biocombust\u00edveis<\/h2>\n

Um fortalecimento do d\u00f3lar americano, combinado com o potencial de disputas comerciais e safras recordes na Am\u00e9rica do Sul, pesam fortemente nas perspectivas para os pre\u00e7os de gr\u00e3os e oleaginosas em 2025. Espera-se que os agricultores dos EUA enfrentem mais compress\u00e3o de margem, j\u00e1 que pre\u00e7os mais fracos de commodities testam a capacidade dos agricultores de reduzir os custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o. As decis\u00f5es sobre insumos agr\u00edcolas ser\u00e3o avaliadas muito mais de perto, com foco em insumos que fornecem o maior retorno sobre o investimento. A perspectiva pessimista para os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo diminui o quadro de demanda por etanol, biodiesel e diesel renov\u00e1vel. A incerteza sobre a pol\u00edtica de biocombust\u00edveis dos EUA sob a nova administra\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m obscurece as perspectivas de demanda por biocombust\u00edveis.<\/p>\n

Prote\u00edna Animal: Margens crescentes melhoram as perspectivas de crescimento<\/h2>\n

A queda nos custos de alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o e o aumento nas margens dos produtores renovaram o interesse pela expans\u00e3o nos segmentos de prote\u00edna animal. No entanto, os custos de m\u00e3o de obra, constru\u00e7\u00e3o e terra permanecem elevados, moderando as expectativas de qualquer crescimento significativo da oferta no curto prazo. A expans\u00e3o do rebanho bovino dos EUA n\u00e3o deve come\u00e7ar antes de 2026 ou 2027. O rebanho menor apoiar\u00e1 ainda mais os pre\u00e7os mais altos do gado de engorda e do gado alimentado no pr\u00f3ximo ano. Com os consumidores agora pressionando os pre\u00e7os da carne bovina j\u00e1 pr\u00f3ximos de m\u00e1ximas hist\u00f3ricas, as margens dos frigor\u00edficos permanecer\u00e3o sob press\u00e3o at\u00e9 2025.<\/p>\n

Latic\u00ednios: Investimento recorde continuar\u00e1 a fazer a categoria crescer<\/h2>\n

Os EUA ver\u00e3o um investimento sem precedentes de $8 bilh\u00f5es em novos processamentos de latic\u00ednios at\u00e9 2026. Algumas das novas plantas est\u00e3o prontas para entrar em opera\u00e7\u00e3o em 2025, com cerca de metade do investimento na categoria de queijos. O aumento esperado na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de queijo e soro provavelmente pressionar\u00e1 para baixo os pre\u00e7os dos produtos l\u00e1cteos no segundo semestre do ano. Obter suprimentos adicionais de leite para preencher a capacidade da nova planta \u00e9 uma quest\u00e3o iminente. 2023 e 2024 ser\u00e3o os primeiros anos consecutivos desde o final dos anos 1960 em que a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de leite dos EUA caiu. Por outro lado, n\u00edveis mais altos de componentes no leite da fazenda, principalmente gordura do leite e prote\u00edna, aumentaram os rendimentos do produto final.<\/p>\n

Alimentos e bebidas: sa\u00fade e nutri\u00e7\u00e3o ocupam o centro do palco<\/h2>\n

A manchete para alimentos, bebidas e bens de consumo embalados em 2025 \u00e9 a nomea\u00e7\u00e3o de Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pelo presidente eleito Trump para liderar o Departamento de Sa\u00fade e Servi\u00e7os Humanos. Os supostos objetivos de Kennedy incluem eliminar ingredientes proibidos em outros pa\u00edses e "tirar os produtos qu\u00edmicos" do suprimento de alimentos dos Estados Unidos. Enquanto isso, o foco renovado dos consumidores em sua sa\u00fade e a popularidade dos medicamentos para perda de peso GLP-1 est\u00e3o mostrando sinais de impacto nos fabricantes de alimentos. Os usu\u00e1rios de GLP-1 compram cerca de 8% menos alimentos em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com os consumidores m\u00e9dios, de acordo com a pesquisa do JP Morgan. As preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es dos fabricantes de alimentos e bebidas sobre o desgaste do volume provavelmente continuar\u00e3o at\u00e9 2025.<\/p>\n

Energia e energia: como pode ser uma revers\u00e3o do IRA<\/h2>\n

O retorno do presidente eleito Trump \u00e0 Casa Branca sinalizar\u00e1 uma mudan\u00e7a significativa na pol\u00edtica energ\u00e9tica dos EUA. Embora ele tenha prometido acabar com o Inflation Reduction Act, desacelerar o \u00edmpeto da energia limpa que se acelerou sob o IRA pode ser mais dif\u00edcil do que se imaginava. Programas populares no IRA direcionaram investimentos significativos para muitas comunidades rurais e economicamente carentes. E mais de uma d\u00fazia de republicanos da C\u00e2mara expressaram preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o de que revogar o IRA poderia prejudicar o desenvolvimento cont\u00ednuo em suas comunidades. Recuperar fundos do IRA que j\u00e1 foram alocados pode ser muito dif\u00edcil. O cen\u00e1rio mais prov\u00e1vel \u00e9 que o financiamento n\u00e3o alocado do IRA seja redirecionado para outras prioridades.<\/p>\n

Infraestrutura digital: a conectividade rural enfrenta novos desafios<\/h2>\n

A incerteza pol\u00edtica e a baixa participa\u00e7\u00e3o no programa Banda Larga, Equidade, Acesso e Implanta\u00e7\u00e3o levantam grandes quest\u00f5es para a redu\u00e7\u00e3o da exclus\u00e3o digital no pr\u00f3ximo ano. O programa BEAD de $42,5 bilh\u00f5es, criado pelo Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, inclui um n\u00edvel sem precedentes de suporte governamental. No entanto, a falta de participa\u00e7\u00e3o das operadoras pode atenuar o impacto deste programa bem-intencionado para levar acesso confi\u00e1vel \u00e0 banda larga para \u00e1reas rurais carentes. Muitas pequenas operadoras n\u00e3o t\u00eam a experi\u00eancia especializada ou os recursos financeiros para atender a alguns dos complicados requisitos do BEAD.<\/p>\n

Leia o relat\u00f3rio completo, O Ano que Vem: For\u00e7as que Moldar\u00e3o a Economia Rural dos EUA em 2025<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A economia dos EUA continua superando as expectativas anteriores, mas as ind\u00fastrias rurais est\u00e3o desproporcionalmente expostas \u00e0 pol\u00edtica federal e enfrentam riscos de queda.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":78143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,26,1848,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-americas","category-executive-outlook","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"\nCoBank Releases 2025 Year Ahead Report \u2013 Forces That Will Shape the U.S. Rural Economy - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The U.S. economy continues to outpace earlier expectations, but rural industries are disproportionately exposed to federal policy and face downside risks.\" \/>\n<meta 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