{"id":79253,"date":"2025-04-23T14:11:13","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T18:11:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=79253"},"modified":"2025-04-23T14:11:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T18:11:13","slug":"raboresearch-global-fertilizer-markets-face-yet-another-challenging-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/plant-health\/npk\/raboresearch-global-fertilizer-markets-face-yet-another-challenging-year\/","title":{"rendered":"RaboResearch: Mercados globais de fertilizantes enfrentam mais um ano desafiador"},"content":{"rendered":"

Os desafios geopol\u00edticos que marcaram o in\u00edcio de 2025 geraram incertezas em diversos mercados. Insumos agr\u00edcolas, como fertilizantes, foram particularmente afetados. Os pre\u00e7os dos fertilizantes apresentam tend\u00eancia de alta para 2025, o que reduz o poder de compra dos agricultores, j\u00e1 que os pre\u00e7os das commodities n\u00e3o est\u00e3o acompanhando o ritmo de crescimento.<\/p>\n

\u201cRaboResearch's<\/a> "O \u00edndice de acessibilidade de fertilizantes indica uma transi\u00e7\u00e3o entre ciclos, passando de um per\u00edodo de relativa acessibilidade para um em que os fertilizantes s\u00e3o menos acess\u00edveis e o \u00edndice se torna negativo", observa Bruno Fonseca, Analista S\u00eanior de Insumos Agr\u00edcolas da RaboResearch. "Esperamos que esse cen\u00e1rio desfavor\u00e1vel para o mercado de fertilizantes persista ao longo do ano."<\/p>\n

Considerando os diversos fatores em jogo, o mercado de fertilizantes provavelmente enfrentar\u00e1 mais um ano desafiador em 2025. Isso se aplica particularmente aos fertilizantes \u00e0 base de nitrog\u00eanio e fosfato. "Os agricultores enfrentar\u00e3o a redu\u00e7\u00e3o do poder de compra desses nutrientes, o que pode n\u00e3o resultar imediatamente em cortes na demanda em 2025, mas o \u00edndice de acessibilidade negativo indica que tais redu\u00e7\u00f5es ocorrer\u00e3o eventualmente", explica Fonseca.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Os compradores est\u00e3o adotando uma abordagem de esperar para ver em meio \u00e0s restri\u00e7\u00f5es de fornecimento<\/h2>\n

Apesar de toda essa incerteza geopol\u00edtica, as necessidades de fertilizantes permanecem est\u00e1veis em regi\u00f5es como \u00c1frica, Austr\u00e1lia, Am\u00e9rica do Sul, Europa e EUA. A \u00cdndia tem sido consistentemente uma grande compradora no mercado de fertilizantes, destacando-se como um player muito importante e garantindo a liquidez necess\u00e1ria em alguns momentos. No entanto, a demanda sazonal na \u00cdndia diminuiu e os estoques foram esgotados. Consequentemente, a atividade do mercado diminuiu, \u00e0 medida que os participantes adotam uma abordagem de esperar para ver antes de tomar qualquer nova a\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o fornecimento de alguns nutrientes, como fosfatos, permanece limitado devido a mudan\u00e7as na din\u00e2mica global dos principais players e \u00e0s restri\u00e7\u00f5es \u00e0s exporta\u00e7\u00f5es da China. Essas restri\u00e7\u00f5es tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o impactando os fertilizantes nitrogenados. "Esperamos que a China retome as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es no segundo semestre de 2025, assim que a demanda interna diminuir ap\u00f3s a conclus\u00e3o das aplica\u00e7\u00f5es de cobertura", acrescenta Fonseca.<\/p>\n

Os mercados e os agricultores enfrentam incertezas de todas as dire\u00e7\u00f5es<\/h2>\n

Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s commodities agr\u00edcolas, o sentimento do mercado varia de acordo com a din\u00e2mica de cada setor. O mercado de milho apresenta um potencial significativo de alta devido aos estoques globais apertados e \u00e0 queda na rela\u00e7\u00e3o estoque\/consumo ao longo de v\u00e1rios anos. A soja est\u00e1 no outro extremo do espectro de pre\u00e7os, j\u00e1 que as perspectivas de uma safra recorde no Brasil e a queda nas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de soja dos EUA para a China sinalizam um cen\u00e1rio de baixa para os pre\u00e7os da soja.<\/p>\n

Mas as amea\u00e7as tarif\u00e1rias s\u00e3o o principal problema. Tarifas interrompem e prejudicam rela\u00e7\u00f5es comerciais de longa data. No caso dos EUA, a participa\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado ser\u00e1 transferida para seus concorrentes (por exemplo, o Brasil) e ser\u00e1 dif\u00edcil recuper\u00e1-la. A expectativa \u00e9 de que as tarifas e os conflitos comerciais em curso pesem sobre os pre\u00e7os das commodities agr\u00edcolas, que j\u00e1 est\u00e3o deprimidos h\u00e1 dois anos. "H\u00e1 muito tempo alertamos que os produtores americanos ser\u00e3o os que mais sofrer\u00e3o com as tarifas rec\u00e9m-impostas. Em \u00faltima an\u00e1lise, a economia de oferta e demanda e o pre\u00e7o das toneladas marginais se mostrar\u00e3o relevantes. Ao longo do \u00faltimo ano ou mais, mudan\u00e7as de pol\u00edtica levaram \u00e0 escassez, resultando em pre\u00e7os mais altos para fertilizantes nos EUA em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com os mercados globais, e essa tend\u00eancia pode continuar no futuro", alerta Fonseca. "No entanto, os mercados de milho, soja e trigo ainda est\u00e3o sendo negociados dentro da faixa estabelecida no ver\u00e3o de 2024, apesar de toda a volatilidade do mercado e do sentimento de baixa, e o aumento da volatilidade oferece oportunidades para todos."<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o fornecimento de alguns nutrientes, como fosfatos, permanece limitado devido a mudan\u00e7as na din\u00e2mica global dos principais players e \u00e0s restri\u00e7\u00f5es \u00e0s exporta\u00e7\u00f5es da China. Essas restri\u00e7\u00f5es tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o impactando os fertilizantes nitrogenados. "Esperamos que a China retome as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es no segundo semestre de 2025, assim que a demanda interna diminuir ap\u00f3s a conclus\u00e3o das aplica\u00e7\u00f5es de cobertura", acrescenta Fonseca.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Apesar da incerteza geopol\u00edtica, as necessidades de fertilizantes permanecem est\u00e1veis em regi\u00f5es como \u00c1frica, Austr\u00e1lia, Am\u00e9rica do Sul, Europa e EUA<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":74683,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,1848,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-executive-outlook","category-npk"],"yoast_head":"\nRaboResearch: Global Fertilizer Markets Face Yet Another Challenging Year - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite geopolitical uncertainty, fertilizer needs remain stable in regions such as Africa, Australia, South America, Europe, and the U.S.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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