{"id":79595,"date":"2025-08-10T12:25:27","date_gmt":"2025-08-10T16:25:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=79595"},"modified":"2025-08-25T16:26:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T20:26:13","slug":"china-price-index-structural-capacity-adjustments-drive-price-volatility-for-glyphosate-and-glufosinate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/abg-update-feature\/china-price-index-structural-capacity-adjustments-drive-price-volatility-for-glyphosate-and-glufosinate\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os da China: Ajustes na Capacidade Estrutural Impulsionam a Volatilidade dos Pre\u00e7os do Glifosato e do Glufosinato"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nota do editor: O escritor colaborador David Li oferece um instant\u00e2neo das tend\u00eancias atuais de pre\u00e7os para os principais herbicidas, fungicidas e inseticidas no mercado agroqu\u00edmico chin\u00eas em seu\u00a0\u00cdndice de pre\u00e7os da China<\/a>. Abaixo, ele tamb\u00e9m discute como os pre\u00e7os do glifosato est\u00e3o se recuperando em meio \u00e0 oferta mais restrita, por que o glufosinato enfrenta dificuldades com a fraca demanda e mudan\u00e7as na regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o, al\u00e9m de outras tend\u00eancias importantes que moldar\u00e3o as decis\u00f5es de compra de agroqu\u00edmicos em 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n

Decis\u00f5es de compra s\u00e3o quase imposs\u00edveis de serem tomadas quando o pre\u00e7o est\u00e1 no fundo do po\u00e7o e, sendo mais realista, o comportamento de compra ocorre antes ou depois dos pontos de inflex\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o. Como compradores, precisamos apenas reconhecer onde ocorreram os verdadeiros pontos de inflex\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Recentemente, a volatilidade do lado da oferta de pesticidas tem aumentado na China. Em termos de mat\u00e9rias-primas b\u00e1sicas, a tens\u00e3o no fornecimento de piridina continua. Os produtores de pesticidas a jusante t\u00eam se concentrado em estocar em etapas, resultando em certa tens\u00e3o de programa\u00e7\u00e3o para produtos a jusante de piridina. Portanto, o pre\u00e7o do ingrediente ativo de pesticidas a jusante de piridina est\u00e1 apresentando uma tend\u00eancia de estabiliza\u00e7\u00e3o em forma de U. Por exemplo, o pre\u00e7o atual do paraquate est\u00e1 sob alta press\u00e3o de custo, de modo que os principais produtores de paraquate est\u00e3o programando a produ\u00e7\u00e3o basicamente para o final de julho.<\/p>\n

A partir de agosto de 2025, os estoques dom\u00e9sticos da China e as compras no hemisf\u00e9rio norte no segundo semestre do ano podem impactar positivamente a oferta de paraquate. A capacidade da planta chinesa pode ficar aqu\u00e9m da demanda externa e afetar o fornecimento de paraquate na temporada de compras de 2025\/2026, que dever\u00e1 apresentar pre\u00e7os cada vez mais altos, visto que o fornecimento de paraquate \u00e9 dominado principalmente pela produ\u00e7\u00e3o uniforme. Agosto pode ser o melhor momento para clientes estrangeiros estocarem mat\u00e9ria-prima de paraquate na China. At\u00e9 o final de 2025 e o in\u00edcio de 2026, quando o estoque de inverno da China se sobrep\u00f5e \u00e0 demanda da Am\u00e9rica do Norte, o pre\u00e7o do paraquate AI EXW da China pode retornar ao n\u00edvel de 2,5 USD\/Kg.<\/p>\n

O mercado de bromo est\u00e1 relativamente est\u00e1vel. O fornecimento de bromo est\u00e1 sendo afetado pela fase de inspe\u00e7\u00f5es de prote\u00e7\u00e3o ambiental, e o estoque do mercado est\u00e1 sob alguma press\u00e3o. No entanto, a libera\u00e7\u00e3o de capacidade a longo prazo ainda \u00e9 relativamente otimista. Alguns produtos a jusante est\u00e3o entrando na entressafra, especialmente a temporada de compras na Am\u00e9rica do Sul, que termina antes do final de julho, portanto, o ambiente de transa\u00e7\u00f5es do mercado est\u00e1 tranquilo. Este tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 o principal motivo pelo qual o pre\u00e7o do diquate se estabilizou ap\u00f3s um per\u00edodo de tens\u00e3o para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m do impacto das mat\u00e9rias-primas upstream nos pre\u00e7os da IA chinesa, as empresas chinesas de pesticidas est\u00e3o, em geral, ajustando suas taxas de opera\u00e7\u00e3o em 2025. Isso aumenta a probabilidade de pre\u00e7os mais altos para o mercado fornecedor. Um novo equil\u00edbrio entre oferta e demanda est\u00e1 gradualmente se formando.<\/p>\n

Glifosato<\/a> Os pre\u00e7os na China t\u00eam apresentado uma tend\u00eancia de alta nos \u00faltimos tempos. Isso se deve principalmente \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o de estoques no mercado fornecedor e \u00e0 libera\u00e7\u00e3o concentrada de demanda na Am\u00e9rica do Sul. Os compradores brasileiros migraram de compras just-in-time<\/a> para compras pontuais de grandes quantidades. Isso teve um impacto significativo nos produtores chineses de glifosato. O agendamento do lado da oferta levou a uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o gradual nos pre\u00e7os do glifosato na China a partir de fevereiro de 2025, ap\u00f3s atingirem o fundo do po\u00e7o. Espera-se que os pre\u00e7os do glifosato permane\u00e7am est\u00e1veis at\u00e9 agosto.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Para o fornecimento de glufosinato<\/a> Na China, a competi\u00e7\u00e3o de mercado \u00e9 ca\u00f3tica. A demanda externa est\u00e1 fraca e a chamada tend\u00eancia de substitui\u00e7\u00e3o do glifosato pelo glufosinato \u00e9 improv\u00e1vel. Clientes estrangeiros s\u00e3o mais propensos a utilizar o glufosinato para o manejo da resist\u00eancia em campo.<\/p>\n

Por exemplo, a combina\u00e7\u00e3o de glufosinato com cletodim \u00e9 uma coformula\u00e7\u00e3o comumente utilizada. O pre\u00e7o do principal ingrediente ativo, como o cletodim, na coformula\u00e7\u00e3o aumentou acentuadamente, o que tamb\u00e9m levou a um aumento no pre\u00e7o dos produtos de marca com glufosinato e cletodim no mercado externo. Consequentemente, a rela\u00e7\u00e3o custo-benef\u00edcio da formula\u00e7\u00e3o de glufosinato no mercado diminuiu.<\/p>\n

No curto prazo, n\u00e3o h\u00e1 possibilidade de um aumento significativo na oferta de glufosinato. Isso tamb\u00e9m afeta o aumento da demanda no mercado de glufosinato. No geral, o pre\u00e7o baixo cont\u00ednuo do glufosinato n\u00e3o pode ser trocado por um aumento no volume de vendas, visto que os diversos fatores que afetam a demanda est\u00e3o se tornando mais complexos.<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, vale ressaltar que a China est\u00e1 desenvolvendo um padr\u00e3o para o teor de cloro em formula\u00e7\u00f5es de glufosinato. No futuro, as formula\u00e7\u00f5es de glufosinato do mercado chin\u00eas ter\u00e3o que ser formuladas a partir do IA e n\u00e3o diretamente do MUP n\u00e3o purificado (a ICAMA estipula que os MUPs tamb\u00e9m devem, em princ\u00edpio, ser formulados a partir do IA).<\/p>\n

Com o aumento das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de produtos formulados da China, o governo chin\u00eas est\u00e1 intensificando seus esfor\u00e7os para monitorar a qualidade das formula\u00e7\u00f5es e gerenci\u00e1-la em conjunto com a Alf\u00e2ndega Chinesa. Com a introdu\u00e7\u00e3o do padr\u00e3o chin\u00eas para \u00edons cloreto em formula\u00e7\u00f5es de glufosinato, os clientes estrangeiros que compram formula\u00e7\u00f5es de glufosinato tamb\u00e9m fortalecer\u00e3o o monitoramento do teor de \u00edons cloreto nas formula\u00e7\u00f5es de seus fornecedores. Espera-se que a qualidade das formula\u00e7\u00f5es de glufosinato chinesas se desenvolva ainda mais em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 padroniza\u00e7\u00e3o e \u00e0 alta qualidade. Portanto, o pre\u00e7o das formula\u00e7\u00f5es de glufosinato chinesas tamb\u00e9m ter\u00e1 uma certa margem de varia\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Assim como os herbicidas, a produ\u00e7\u00e3o de mancozebe na China se mant\u00e9m relativamente est\u00e1vel. Os pre\u00e7os do moncozebe na China tamb\u00e9m se mantiveram firmes, com a demanda da Am\u00e9rica do Sul continuando a aumentar. A oferta spot de moncozebe no mercado chin\u00eas est\u00e1 baixa, com os clientes sul-americanos migrando de pedidos just-in-time fragmentados para pedidos de longo prazo em 2025, garantindo assim a oferta. Este \u00e9 o principal fator que influencia a tend\u00eancia cont\u00ednua de alta dos pre\u00e7os do moncozebe.<\/p>\n

A oferta restrita de 1,2,4-triazol diminuiu, de modo que os pre\u00e7os dos fungicidas triaz\u00f3licos permaneceram, em geral, est\u00e1veis. Os pre\u00e7os do protioconazol est\u00e3o enfrentando grandes desafios devido \u00e0 libera\u00e7\u00e3o gradual da capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o fornecida pela China. Espera-se que o pre\u00e7o deste produto continue em baixa em 2025-2026, e o pre\u00e7o do protioconazol ainda pode ter espa\u00e7o para queda.<\/p>\n

No caso dos pesticidas, a maior aten\u00e7\u00e3o foi dada ao impacto da Explos\u00e3o qu\u00edmica de Youdao em clorantraniliprole (CTPR)<\/a> na China. O impacto do acidente no pre\u00e7o do CTPR AI \u00e9 indireto, visto que a taxa de utiliza\u00e7\u00e3o da Youdao Chemical n\u00e3o era muito alta antes da explos\u00e3o. Atualmente, h\u00e1 oferta suficiente do principal intermedi\u00e1rio \u00e1cido K no mercado chin\u00eas, mas o gargalo de fornecimento \u00e9 a K amina. Os intermedi\u00e1rios de nitrifica\u00e7\u00e3o a montante da K amina n\u00e3o s\u00e3o capazes de garantir a produ\u00e7\u00e3o suficiente de mat\u00e9ria-prima por v\u00e1rios fabricantes devido \u00e0 natureza perigosa da produ\u00e7\u00e3o. A escassez de intermedi\u00e1rios de nitrifica\u00e7\u00e3o a montante da K amina pode continuar a sustentar o pre\u00e7o do CTPR na China. Em particular, o pre\u00e7o do CTPR na China pode atingir o pico ap\u00f3s o lan\u00e7amento da demanda de armazenamento de inverno no mercado chin\u00eas local no final de 2025.<\/p>\n

Os produtores chineses de abamectina est\u00e3o em um equil\u00edbrio apertado em termos de ajuste da taxa de opera\u00e7\u00e3o, o que continua a elevar os pre\u00e7os do produto no pa\u00eds. Os produtores de benzoato de abamectina est\u00e3o enfileirando pedidos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, e as altas ofertas est\u00e3o em um jogo acirrado com a demanda do mercado. O custo dos inseticidas piretroides est\u00e1 em alta, principalmente devido ao aumento no custo dos principais intermedi\u00e1rios.<\/p>\n

Em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o mesmo per\u00edodo do ano passado, o padr\u00e3o e a situa\u00e7\u00e3o do fornecimento de IA na China est\u00e3o passando por uma mudan\u00e7a profunda. Com a sa\u00edda da capacidade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o de pequeno e m\u00e9dio porte, a concentra\u00e7\u00e3o da ind\u00fastria chinesa est\u00e1 avan\u00e7ando com grande efici\u00eancia.<\/p>\n

No entanto, pre\u00e7os baixos n\u00e3o s\u00e3o condi\u00e7\u00e3o suficiente para fornecedores de primeira linha. Analisando a situa\u00e7\u00e3o geral das empresas chinesas, a independ\u00eancia em P&D tecnol\u00f3gico, bem como o apoio de toda a cadeia industrial de mat\u00e9rias-primas a montante, s\u00e3o a base da capacidade de desenvolvimento sustent\u00e1vel das empresas. Al\u00e9m disso, avan\u00e7os em mercados de alto valor e o aumento da oferta de servi\u00e7os est\u00e3o permitindo que as empresas chinesas de pesticidas, com estrat\u00e9gias de longo prazo e vis\u00e3o de globaliza\u00e7\u00e3o, escapem da armadilha da concorr\u00eancia de pre\u00e7os baixos no Mar Vermelho.<\/p>\n

Ainda mais promissor \u00e9 o fato de que a administra\u00e7\u00e3o de pesticidas da China est\u00e1 fortalecendo a prote\u00e7\u00e3o dos direitos de propriedade intelectual. O respeito \u00e0 propriedade intelectual e as penalidades por roubo de propriedade intelectual de processos de outros fornecedores chineses ser\u00e3o mais prop\u00edcios ao surgimento de inova\u00e7\u00e3o cont\u00ednua na ind\u00fastria chinesa de pesticidas. O estabelecimento de padr\u00f5es de qualidade e o controle de impurezas essenciais est\u00e3o ajudando ativamente os clientes estrangeiros a obter produtos chineses de melhor qualidade. Isso demonstra a responsabilidade da segunda maior economia do mundo.<\/p>\n

O \u00fanico aspecto insatisfat\u00f3rio \u00e9 que o processo de aceita\u00e7\u00e3o m\u00fatua de dados (MAD) entre a China e o exterior est\u00e1 basicamente paralisado no momento. Os novos produtos patenteados de empresas multinacionais n\u00e3o podem ser comercializados na China. Em vez disso, as empresas chinesas de pesticidas s\u00f3 podem escolher laborat\u00f3rios BPL estrangeiros para a prepara\u00e7\u00e3o de dados BPL. A interrup\u00e7\u00e3o do credenciamento de laborat\u00f3rios BPL chineses por organiza\u00e7\u00f5es internacionais \u00e9 a principal raz\u00e3o para a situa\u00e7\u00e3o dif\u00edcil do MAD. Em um ambiente econ\u00f4mico e geopol\u00edtico global altamente incerto, remover as barreiras entre o mundo e a China \u00e9 mais prop\u00edcio para compensar os riscos de ambos os lados do que "construir um muro de separa\u00e7\u00e3o".<\/p>\n

Em meados de 2025, compreender profundamente o mercado de fornecimento de pesticidas da China e influenciar o fornecimento do pa\u00eds est\u00e1 se tornando um componente estrat\u00e9gico importante para empresas multinacionais. A volatilidade dos pre\u00e7os e a complexidade dos fatores de influ\u00eancia est\u00e3o em uma dupla h\u00e9lice. A gest\u00e3o de risco e a previs\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os est\u00e3o sendo ponderadas no mesmo n\u00edvel.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Os pre\u00e7os do glifosato se recuperam em meio \u00e0 oferta mais restrita; o glufosinato enfrenta dificuldades com a fraca demanda e mudan\u00e7as na regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o. Conhe\u00e7a as principais tend\u00eancias que moldar\u00e3o as decis\u00f5es de compra em 2025.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1477,"featured_media":68009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1917,4,28,1848,1849,1882],"tags":[1836,54],"class_list":["post-79595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-asia","category-executive-outlook","category-sourcing-insider","category-sourcing-insider-china","tag-china-price-index","tag-featured-home"],"yoast_head":"\nChina Price Index: Structural Capacity Adjustments Drive Price Volatility for Glyphosate and Glufosinate - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Glyphosate prices rebound amid tighter supply; glufosinate struggles with weak demand and regulation shifts. 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