{"id":80476,"date":"2025-10-06T15:39:22","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T19:39:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=80476"},"modified":"2025-10-06T15:39:22","modified_gmt":"2025-10-06T19:39:22","slug":"record-u-s-grain-harvest-collides-with-storage-crunch-weak-soybean-demand-and-trade-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/markets\/record-u-s-grain-harvest-collides-with-storage-crunch-weak-soybean-demand-and-trade-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"Colheita recorde de gr\u00e3os nos EUA colide com crise de armazenamento, fraca demanda por soja e incerteza comercial"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Os EUA est\u00e3o se preparando para uma colheita recorde de gr\u00e3os, totalizando 21,5 bilh\u00f5es de bushels de milho, soja e sorgo gran\u00edfero neste outono. A safra recorde chega em um per\u00edodo de grande incerteza em torno do futuro da rela\u00e7\u00e3o comercial dos EUA com a China, baixa demanda do mercado de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o por soja americana e pre\u00e7os baixos das safras. Enquanto isso, a log\u00edstica de armazenamento e transporte de gr\u00e3os est\u00e1 se tornando muito mais complexa do que o normal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">De acordo com um <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cobank.com\/knowledge-exchange\/grain-and-farm-supply\/grain-logistics-outlook-record-crop-meets-trade-uncertainty?utm_source=mediabase&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=knowledge-exchange&amp;utm_content=grain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">novo relat\u00f3rio do Knowledge Exchange do CoBank<\/a>O espa\u00e7o de armazenamento de gr\u00e3os ser\u00e1 extremamente limitado neste outono, com os comerciantes de gr\u00e3os cobrando taxas mais altas devido \u00e0 capacidade limitada e \u00e0 infraestrutura sobrecarregada. Embora os elevadores de gr\u00e3os possam se beneficiar da compra de bases mais baratas e da captura de carregamentos mais amplos nos mercados futuros, as oportunidades de lucro n\u00e3o s\u00e3o isentas de riscos.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">\u201cO desafio para os elevadores ser\u00e1 priorizar o armazenamento escasso de gr\u00e3os\u201d, disse Tanner Ehmke, economista de gr\u00e3os e oleaginosas do CoBank. \u201cEntre os 12 principais estados produtores de milho, os EUA enfrentam uma escassez de 1,4 bilh\u00e3o de bushels em armazenamento vertical de gr\u00e3os este ano, com os elevadores dependendo mais de bunkers e armazenamento de emerg\u00eancia, como pilhas no ch\u00e3o. A escassez deste ano contrasta fortemente com a do ano passado, quando esses estados tiveram um total de 361 milh\u00f5es de bushels de excesso de armazenamento.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Exporta\u00e7\u00f5es desiguais t\u00eam um peso enorme<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Os volumes de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de milho e trigo dos EUA t\u00eam sido excepcionalmente fortes. Pre\u00e7os baixos, d\u00f3lar em queda e custos de transporte favor\u00e1veis impulsionaram o ritmo das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es. As vendas pendentes de milho aumentaram 941 TP3T em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior, e as vendas de trigo integral n\u00e3o embarcado aumentaram 411 TP3T. Nenhuma das safras foi afetada pela disputa comercial em curso entre os EUA e a China.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Por outro lado, as vendas de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de soja e sorgo gran\u00edfero est\u00e3o bem abaixo dos anos anteriores. As vendas de soja ca\u00edram 511 TP3T em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior, enquanto as vendas de sorgo gran\u00edfero est\u00e3o come\u00e7ando a temporada com queda de 581 TP3T. O ritmo lento de embarque de soja e sorgo gran\u00edfero permitir\u00e1 o uso de maior capacidade de transporte e eleva\u00e7\u00e3o para atender aos embarques de milho e trigo para o Noroeste Pac\u00edfico e o Golfo dos EUA.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">\u201cO ritmo lento das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de soja e sorgo gran\u00edfero pode beneficiar o milho e o trigo\u201d, disse Ehmke. \u201cOs produtores que enfrentam dificuldades com armazenamento restrito podem priorizar o milho e o trigo em detrimento da soja e do sorgo gran\u00edfero devido aos fluxos de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o mais confi\u00e1veis e ao menor risco associado ao milho e ao trigo.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Redirecionamento de tarifas ferrovi\u00e1rias, de barca\u00e7as e de navios<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">As redu\u00e7\u00f5es nas tarifas ferrovi\u00e1rias est\u00e3o ajudando a impulsionar a demanda por commodities americanas, especialmente milho e trigo, para o M\u00e9xico e a regi\u00e3o do Golfo. No entanto, a aus\u00eancia de uma oferta de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de soja na Regi\u00e3o Nordeste do Pac\u00edfico (PNW) fez com que as empresas ferrovi\u00e1rias operassem um programa limitado para a regi\u00e3o e se concentrassem em embarques de milho e trigo. &quot;O risco para o mercado ferrovi\u00e1rio seria uma resolu\u00e7\u00e3o comercial entre EUA e China que resultasse no retorno de uma oferta de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de soja para a Regi\u00e3o Nordeste do Pac\u00edfico (PNW) e causasse um aumento repentino nas tarifas de frete ferrovi\u00e1rio&quot;, disse Ehmke.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Os baixos n\u00edveis de \u00e1gua no baixo rio Mississippi levaram a restri\u00e7\u00f5es no calado e no tamanho do reboque, elevando as tarifas de barca\u00e7as para o transporte de gr\u00e3os ao longo do baixo Mississippi. Em 23 de setembro, a tarifa de frete de barca\u00e7a para o transporte de gr\u00e3os ao longo do baixo Mississippi era de $19,53 por tonelada, de acordo com o USDA-AMS. Isso representa um aumento de 31% em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s quatro semanas anteriores, mas ainda 14% a menos do que no mesmo per\u00edodo do ano passado, quando a seca extrema restringiu o movimento de barca\u00e7as. No entanto, embarques de soja abaixo da m\u00e9dia pelo Mississippi podem desacelerar o aumento das tarifas de frete de barca\u00e7as e permitir embarques maiores de milho e trigo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">As tarifas de navios oce\u00e2nicos no Pac\u00edfico Noroeste para transporte de gr\u00e3os ca\u00edram 6,81 TP3T em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao ano anterior, enquanto as tarifas no Golfo dos EUA ca\u00edram 12,71 TP3T, incentivando as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de gr\u00e3os e oleaginosas dos EUA. Mas as tarifas est\u00e3o subindo agora com a aproxima\u00e7\u00e3o da alta temporada de embarques. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">A preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com as novas taxas sobre navios de bandeira chinesa ou de fabrica\u00e7\u00e3o chinesa que atracam nos EUA tem sido amenizada entre os comerciantes de gr\u00e3os. Isen\u00e7\u00f5es para navios com arquea\u00e7\u00e3o bruta inferior a 80.000 toneladas ou que cheguem vazios amenizaram a preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o. As taxas sobre navios chineses devem entrar em vigor em 14 de outubro. No entanto, algumas companhias de navega\u00e7\u00e3o ainda est\u00e3o preocupadas com a incerteza pol\u00edtica e relutam em enviar navios para os EUA, o que pode afetar as tarifas de frete mar\u00edtimo durante a alta temporada de embarques. <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">M\u00e1ximas e m\u00ednimas b\u00e1sicas<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Os n\u00edveis de base do milho no interior dos EUA continuam a enfraquecer devido \u00e0 perspectiva de uma colheita recorde de outono e \u00e0 capacidade limitada de armazenamento. A forte demanda por milho incentivar\u00e1 os produtores a comprar e armazenar mais milho do que outras commodities, sabendo que haver\u00e1 ampla oportunidade de comercializ\u00e1-lo posteriormente. O milho tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 armazenado com mais facilidade em bunkers e pilhas de gr\u00e3os do que a soja, o trigo ou o sorgo gran\u00edfero, e apresenta menor risco de encolhimento devido \u00e0 deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">A falta de demanda para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o de soja enfraqueceu os n\u00edveis de base nos EUA, especialmente nas regi\u00f5es das Plan\u00edcies do Norte, que dependem fortemente de embarques de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o para o Pac\u00edfico Noroeste. No entanto, a r\u00e1pida expans\u00e3o da capacidade dom\u00e9stica de esmagamento de soja sustentou os n\u00edveis de base em algumas regi\u00f5es.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">\u201cDevido ao risco de perda de demanda para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o, alguns silos nas Plan\u00edcies do Norte que n\u00e3o t\u00eam demanda local para esmagamento podem n\u00e3o aceitar soja por medo de n\u00e3o conseguir acessar o mercado de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o posteriormente\u201d, disse Ehmke. \u201cPara silos relutantes em receber entregas e com base de soja curta, a base est\u00e1 sendo fixada em n\u00edveis historicamente baixos, com taxas de armazenagem fixadas em valores mais altos.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Elevadores com amplos alqueires de trigo, com previs\u00e3o para a colheita de outono, est\u00e3o aumentando as taxas de armazenamento. Embora os elevadores de trigo tenham se beneficiado de uma base mais barata e de carregamentos maiores, alguns ainda decidiram movimentar o trigo para abrir espa\u00e7o para a colheita de outono. Os EUA est\u00e3o atualmente desfrutando de um programa de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o impressionante de trigo, permitindo que os elevadores abram espa\u00e7o para milho, soja e sorgo gran\u00edfero.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Como a China normalmente responde por 80-90% das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de sorgo gran\u00edfero dos EUA, a perda de neg\u00f3cios na China afetou drasticamente a base. A base de sorgo gran\u00edfero caiu para n\u00edveis historicamente baixos, com os produtores relutantes em assumir o risco de comprar e armazenar a commodity no atual ambiente de mercado. A forte demanda por etanol para sorgo gran\u00edfero tem sustentado a base em alguns mercados locais.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">\u201cOs comerciantes de gr\u00e3os se beneficiar\u00e3o de maiores estoques de milho, soja e trigo, que continuam a aumentar, dando aos elevadores ampla oportunidade de lucrar com a armazenagem\u201d, disse Ehmke. \u201cMas os elevadores precisar\u00e3o priorizar o espa\u00e7o de armazenagem escasso. A soja ter\u00e1 o maior custo de transporte em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o milho, o trigo ou o sorgo gran\u00edfero. Armazenar soja indefinidamente em meio a um ritmo lento de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m traz o risco de degrada\u00e7\u00e3o da qualidade ao longo do tempo.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Programas de Pre\u00e7os Atrasados<\/span><\/h2>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Com os pre\u00e7os das commodities em m\u00ednimas plurianuais, os agricultores podem preferir comercializar gr\u00e3os por meio de programas de precifica\u00e7\u00e3o diferida, em que a propriedade \u00e9 transferida para o fornecedor, permitindo que o agricultor precifique os gr\u00e3os posteriormente. Esses programas representam um risco maior para os comerciantes de gr\u00e3os se o pre\u00e7o de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o do agricultor n\u00e3o cobrir o custo de transporte.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">Para eliminar o risco e a incerteza associados aos programas de DP, alguns produtores optaram por programas de pagamento em dinheiro com os agricultores. Outros podem oferecer contratos de pre\u00e7o m\u00ednimo e contratos de pre\u00e7o estendido para criar programas de comercializa\u00e7\u00e3o alternativos para os agricultores.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"pf0\"><span class=\"cf1\">\u201cO risco para os elevadores ser\u00e1 que os agricultores n\u00e3o vendam e optem por programas de PD\u201d, disse Ehmke. \u201cTaxas sobre programas de PD adequadamente estruturados antes da colheita podem incentivar os agricultores a vender. Os programas de PD precisar\u00e3o ser bem estruturados e limitados para compensar o maior risco de transportar gr\u00e3os sem pre\u00e7o em um mercado de transporte.\u201d<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elevadores de gr\u00e3os e comerciantes enfrentam uma mistura complexa de oportunidades e riscos \u00e0 medida que a temporada de colheita entra em pleno andamento.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":80477,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[26,1848,489,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-americas","category-executive-outlook","category-industry-news","category-markets"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Record U.S. Grain 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