{"id":80634,"date":"2025-11-18T10:16:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T15:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=80634"},"modified":"2025-11-18T10:19:17","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T15:19:17","slug":"global-crop-protection-at-a-crossroads-stability-returns-as-industry-eyes-new-growth-drivers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/pt\/agrochemicals\/global-crop-protection-at-a-crossroads-stability-returns-as-industry-eyes-new-growth-drivers\/","title":{"rendered":"Prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos global em uma encruzilhada: a estabilidade retorna enquanto a ind\u00fastria busca novos motores de crescimento."},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Derek

Derek Oliphant, s\u00f3cio da AgbioInvestor, apresentou a sess\u00e3o \u201cProte\u00e7\u00e3o Global de Cultivos: O que est\u00e1 acontecendo e o que vem a seguir?\u201d na C\u00fapula Global de Com\u00e9rcio do Agroneg\u00f3cio de 2025 em Orlando, Fl\u00f3rida, Estados Unidos.<\/p><\/div>\n

O mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos encontra-se numa encruzilhada \u2014 pressionado por mudan\u00e7as regulat\u00f3rias, tecnologias em evolu\u00e7\u00e3o, incerteza clim\u00e1tica e crescente demanda por solu\u00e7\u00f5es sustent\u00e1veis. Nesta sess\u00e3o, ser\u00e3o discutidos diversos temas. \u201cProte\u00e7\u00e3o Global de Cultivos: O que est\u00e1 acontecendo e o que vem a seguir?\u201d<\/em> em 2025 Cimeira Global de Com\u00e9rcio AgriBusiness<\/strong><\/a>, Derek Oliphant, S\u00f3cio da AgbioInvestidor<\/a>, ofereceu uma an\u00e1lise aprofundada de como o mercado est\u00e1 evoluindo e onde surgir\u00e1 a pr\u00f3xima fase de crescimento.<\/p>\n

\u201cOs \u00faltimos anos foram alguns dos mais dif\u00edceis que j\u00e1 vimos para a prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos\u201d, disse Oliphant. \u201cMas, embora os desafios sejam reais \u2014 pre\u00e7os baixos das commodities, clima adverso e press\u00e3o sobre os pre\u00e7os \u2014, agora estamos vendo os primeiros sinais de recupera\u00e7\u00e3o.\u201d<\/p>\n

Da Decad\u00eancia \u00e0 Estabiliza\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O setor global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos sofreu quedas acentuadas em 2023 e 2024, duramente atingido pela queda dos pre\u00e7os das commodities e pelo ac\u00famulo de estoques em diversas regi\u00f5es. "Os agricultores estavam ganhando menos com suas colheitas, o que naturalmente significava menos dinheiro para investir em insumos", explicou Oliphant. "Ao mesmo tempo, as condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas desfavor\u00e1veis em pa\u00edses importantes limitaram o uso dos produtos, e os fabricantes tiveram dificuldades para escoar seus estoques."\u201c<\/p>\n

Agora, com o ano de 2025 chegando ao fim, o mercado parece estar se estabilizando. A AgbioInvestor estima uma queda no valor global de apenas 1,81 trilh\u00e3o de d\u00f3lares em termos nominais para 2025 \u2014 bem menos acentuada do que a previs\u00e3o de quase [valor omitido] 7%<\/strong> queda registrada no ano anterior. "Se excluirmos os efeitos cambiais, o mercado na verdade mostra um leve crescimento", disse Oliphant. "A recupera\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 acontecendo \u2014 s\u00f3 est\u00e1 sendo mascarada pelas flutua\u00e7\u00f5es cambiais."\u201c<\/p>\n

Os pre\u00e7os das commodities direcionam o mercado.<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Poucos fatores influenciam a demanda por defensivos agr\u00edcolas de forma t\u00e3o direta quanto os pre\u00e7os das commodities. "H\u00e1 uma correla\u00e7\u00e3o muito forte entre os pre\u00e7os das commodities e o desempenho do mercado", observou Oliphant. "Quando os agricultores ganham mais, eles reinvestem em suas lavouras \u2014 e isso beneficia todo o setor."\u201c<\/p>\n

Ap\u00f3s atingirem o pico em 2022-2023, os pre\u00e7os globais das commodities ca\u00edram acentuadamente, mas desde ent\u00e3o se estabilizaram. Os contratos futuros sugerem n\u00edveis est\u00e1veis at\u00e9 2026. "A situa\u00e7\u00e3o para os agricultores agora est\u00e1 muito mais est\u00e1vel", disse ele. "N\u00e3o esperamos as grandes quedas que vimos recentemente, o que proporciona um ambiente mais saud\u00e1vel para os gastos com insumos agr\u00edcolas."\u201c<\/p>\n

Press\u00f5es sobre os pre\u00e7os e diferen\u00e7as regionais<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Os pre\u00e7os dos agroqu\u00edmicos, outra vari\u00e1vel crucial, sofreram uma oscila\u00e7\u00e3o dr\u00e1stica. Ap\u00f3s as restri\u00e7\u00f5es de oferta e a alta demanda impostas pela pandemia, os pre\u00e7os atingiram o pico em 2022, antes de ca\u00edrem abaixo dos n\u00edveis pr\u00e9-pandemia em 2024. "Tivemos uma demanda menor devido \u00e0s condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas e aos altos estoques, al\u00e9m da entrada em opera\u00e7\u00e3o de nova capacidade produtiva na China", disse Oliphant. "Essa combina\u00e7\u00e3o fez com que os pre\u00e7os ca\u00edssem acentuadamente."\u201c<\/p>\n

Na China, os pre\u00e7os est\u00e3o est\u00e1veis, mas permanecem historicamente baixos. Em contraste, a Europa e os Estados Unidos est\u00e3o se estabilizando em n\u00edveis mais altos. "Na UE, os custos de energia ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o russa da Ucr\u00e2nia elevaram os custos de produ\u00e7\u00e3o", disse ele. "Esses custos agora se estabilizaram, mas ainda est\u00e3o bem acima dos n\u00edveis de alguns anos atr\u00e1s."\u201c<\/p>\n

Regula\u00e7\u00e3o e Inova\u00e7\u00e3o: For\u00e7as G\u00eameas<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Uma das maiores for\u00e7as que moldam o futuro da prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos \u00e9 a regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o \u2014 especialmente na Uni\u00e3o Europeia, onde muitos ingredientes ativos j\u00e1 foram retirados do mercado e espera-se que outros sigam o mesmo caminho. \u201cA UE continua sendo um mercado muito rigoroso\u201d, explicou Oliphant. \u201cPerdemos v\u00e1rios herbicidas pr\u00e9-emergentes importantes e outros sair\u00e3o em breve. A quest\u00e3o \u00e9: o que os substituir\u00e1?\u201d<\/p>\n

Novas qu\u00edmicas e tecnologias alternativas est\u00e3o entrando em cena. Oliphant destacou. da Sumitomo Chemical<\/a> Herbicidas \u00e0 base de oxifluorfeno e v\u00e1rios compostos inovadores est\u00e3o sob an\u00e1lise da UE como potenciais substitutos. "Alguns deles t\u00eam sido tradicionalmente usados em frutas e vegetais, mas poderiam ser adaptados para cereais", disse ele.<\/p>\n

A regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o, no entanto, n\u00e3o \u00e9 um problema exclusivo da Europa. Os mercados emergentes tamb\u00e9m est\u00e3o refor\u00e7ando a supervis\u00e3o. "Estamos vendo pa\u00edses como o Brasil e a China adotarem padr\u00f5es mais semelhantes aos da Uni\u00e3o Europeia", acrescentou Oliphant. "Isso est\u00e1 impulsionando uma mudan\u00e7a em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a tecnologias mais seguras e avan\u00e7adas em todo o mundo."\u201c<\/p>\n

Resist\u00eancia e a Ascens\u00e3o dos Produtos Biol\u00f3gicos<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O controle da resist\u00eancia continua sendo uma quest\u00e3o cr\u00edtica \u2014 e uma grande oportunidade para inova\u00e7\u00e3o. "\u00c0 medida que as terapias qu\u00edmicas mais antigas perdem a efic\u00e1cia, vemos novos modos de a\u00e7\u00e3o e solu\u00e7\u00f5es biol\u00f3gicas preenchendo essa lacuna", disse Oliphant.<\/p>\n

Os produtos biol\u00f3gicos, embora ainda representem um mercado pequeno (menos de 1,4 a 2 bilh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares no n\u00edvel do fabricante), est\u00e3o crescendo rapidamente.<\/p>\n

\u201cEsperamos que os biopesticidas e bioestimulantes cres\u00e7am a taxas muito superiores \u00e0s do segmento qu\u00edmico\u201d, previu ele. \u201cGrande parte desse crescimento prov\u00e9m do manejo da resist\u00eancia, de perfis toxicol\u00f3gicos aprimorados e de uma maior efic\u00e1cia no campo.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

O Brasil est\u00e1 emergindo<\/a> como um ponto de destaque para produtos biol\u00f3gicos em culturas agr\u00edcolas, impulsionado pela demanda dos produtores e pelos avan\u00e7os tecnol\u00f3gicos. "Os produtos agora t\u00eam maior prazo de validade e podem apresentar bom desempenho em condi\u00e7\u00f5es de campo aberto", disse Oliphant. "Isso muda completamente o jogo para a ado\u00e7\u00e3o."\u201c<\/p>\n

Inova\u00e7\u00e3o a um pre\u00e7o elevado<\/strong><\/h2>\n

O custo para lan\u00e7ar um novo ingrediente ativo no mercado disparou \u2014 ultrapassando agora, em m\u00e9dia, 1.043 milh\u00f5es de d\u00f3lares. "Esse n\u00edvel de investimento significa que as empresas est\u00e3o sendo muito mais seletivas", disse Oliphant. "Observamos uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o na entrada de mol\u00e9culas verdadeiramente inovadoras no mercado."\u201c<\/p>\n

Ainda assim, a inova\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o est\u00e1 parada. Startups de biotecnologia menores, muitas vezes derivadas de universidades ou da ind\u00fastria farmac\u00eautica, est\u00e3o cada vez mais ativas em pesquisa e desenvolvimento de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos. "Elas est\u00e3o usando IA e tecnologias avan\u00e7adas de triagem para reduzir o tempo e os custos de desenvolvimento", observou ele.<\/p>\n

A colabora\u00e7\u00e3o entre startups e grandes empresas est\u00e1 acelerando essa mudan\u00e7a. "Temos visto a Corteva trabalhando com a AI Planet, uma empresa de descoberta baseada em IA, Syngenta se une \u00e0 Enko<\/a>, \u201dA Nufarm est\u00e1 em parceria com diversos centros de inova\u00e7\u00e3o\u201c, disse Oliphant. \u201dEssas parcerias est\u00e3o ajudando a ind\u00fastria a lan\u00e7ar novas mol\u00e9culas no mercado mais rapidamente.\u201d<\/p>\n

Olhando para 2030<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Para onde o mercado est\u00e1 se encaminhando? A Oliphant prev\u00ea um crescimento lento, por\u00e9m constante, na prote\u00e7\u00e3o convencional de cultivos \u2014 cerca de 21.000 toneladas anualmente at\u00e9 2030 \u2014 enquanto os produtos biol\u00f3gicos ter\u00e3o um crescimento expressivo.<\/p>\n

\u201cO mercado de produtos qu\u00edmicos est\u00e1 maduro e enfrenta muitos desafios \u2014 regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o, redu\u00e7\u00e3o das taxas de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o e tecnologias de aplica\u00e7\u00e3o de precis\u00e3o que diminuem os volumes totais\u201d, disse ele. \u201cMas ainda existe potencial de crescimento por meio da inova\u00e7\u00e3o e da substitui\u00e7\u00e3o de produtos mais antigos.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Os principais fatores que impulsionar\u00e3o os pr\u00f3ximos anos incluem:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Pre\u00e7os est\u00e1veis de commodities e insumos<\/li>\n
  • Condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas e de produ\u00e7\u00e3o melhoradas<\/li>\n
  • Crescimento em produtos biol\u00f3gicos e bioestimulantes<\/li>\n
  • Inova\u00e7\u00e3o tecnol\u00f3gica em formula\u00e7\u00f5es e sistemas de administra\u00e7\u00e3o de medicamentos<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \u201cO mercado global de prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos est\u00e1 evoluindo, n\u00e3o desaparecendo\u201d, concluiu Oliphant. \u201cAs empresas que tiverem sucesso ser\u00e3o aquelas que se adaptarem \u00e0s novas regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es, abra\u00e7arem a inova\u00e7\u00e3o e anteciparem de onde vir\u00e1 a pr\u00f3xima onda de demanda.\u201d<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Ap\u00f3s anos de volatilidade, a prote\u00e7\u00e3o de cultivos est\u00e1 se estabilizando. Descubra como a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o, a regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o e a inova\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e3o remodelando o mercado at\u00e9 2030.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":110,"featured_media":80635,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1917,4,1848],"tags":[54,1913],"class_list":["post-80634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-agrochemicals","category-executive-outlook","tag-featured-home","tag-trade-summit-exclusive"],"yoast_head":"\nGlobal Crop Protection at a Crossroads: Stability Returns As Industry Eyes New Growth Drivers - AgriBusiness Global<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After years of volatility, crop protection is stabilizing. 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