影响行业发展的最重要因素是从专有材料到非专利材料再到通用材料的转变。
截至 2013 年底，专利到期产品占农药市场总量的 77% 刚刚超过 77%。该数字每年平均增加 2% 至 3%。在剩余的 22% 专利产品中，54% 将在未来五年内过渡到非专利产品，其余 46% 将在 2020 年后过渡到专利到期。虽然一些跨国公司仍在进行研究，新的活性成分将上线，但大多数新的专利产品来自预混料。
While that is an accurate way of looking at the market, said Fairclough, who was speaking to attendees of the Farm Chemicals International Global Sourcing Summit held in India in December, it is rather simplistic. It’s important to break down the off-patent market further. Fairclough divides the off-patent market into three categories: commodity (28%), generic (40%) and in transition (9.75%).
What’s important, Fairclough said, is the price per kilogram. “It’s a lot easier to make margin when you’ve got $209/kg as opposed to $17/kg assuming production costs are the same.”
未来五年内专利到期的产品平均为 $243/kg。那些在 2020 年后获得专利的平均 $235/kg。产品处于非专利生命周期的哪个阶段会产生巨大的差异。处于过渡阶段的产品——大约在专利失效后的前五年——平均为 $80/kg。一个通用的 $28/kg。当它到达商品阶段时，产品带来的平均仅为 $9/kg。
It’s better to be in that “in transition” space than in the commodity space.
“As it stands today, the generic industry has never had such potential opportunity in terms of the value of active ingredients coming off patent in the next five years,” Fairclough said.
商品价格
从包括农业原材料、食品和燃料在内的各种材料的商品价格来看，价格在 2008 年之前相对稳定，当时出现了飙升。 Fairclough 说，从那时起，这些地区就变得更加不稳定了。
预计大宗商品价格将继续出现小幅下跌，直到它们回到 2008 年飙升之前的水平。
库存使用比率
Basically, the stock-to-use ratio looks at the amount of next year’s crop that is stored. When that amount drops below 20% it is expected that prices will rise, and when they rise above 20% prices should decrease. In 2014, wheat and maize crop ratios were headed up while the rice ratio was decreasing. Fairclough points out that this is not an absolute ratio. In 2008, the ratios for wheat, for example, were dropping but prices increased anyway.
美国农业部展望估计 2014/15 年度全球稻米产量接近 4.75 亿吨（略低于上一年度的 4.77 亿吨），与 21.7% 的 S/U 比率一致，低于上一年度的 23.3%，但远高于 2006/07 年的低点。近期大米价格的上涨压力反映了印度、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和斯里兰卡的生产前景恶化。
肥料
Fairclough 说，肥料占农民投入成本的一半。如果化肥价格上涨，农民在作物保护上的支出就会减少。化肥价格往往反映天然气价格，预计未来几年天然气价格会下降或至少保持稳定。
尽管化肥价格在 2014 年第三季度扭转了下降趋势（上涨 4.9%），但比一年前下降了 6%，比 2008 年年中的历史高点低了 60%。
预计2014年化肥价格指数下降11.5%，今年再下降3.5%。这种下降是在 2013 年 13% 下降的基础上出现的。然而，该指数的各个组成部分将遵循不同的路径。 2015 年氯化钾将下降近 25%，尿素将平均下降 6.5%，DAP 将小幅上涨。这一前景是基于美国天然气价格将适度上涨的假设。
生物燃料
生物燃料是另一个大故事。四五年前，生物燃料市场每年增长 10% 至 15%。在过去的三年中，它一直相对稳定。
Fairclough doesn’t expect the amount of maize the U.S. dedicates to biofuels is going to decrease. Nor is the sugar cane market going to go away in Brazil.
“I do believe the impetus for creating alternative fuel sources from other crops in other parts of the world is going to disappear a bit,” Faircloughs said. Biofuels will continue to play a key role in the behavior of agricultural commodity markets, but that role will be less important than in the recent past.