一个新的 荷兰合作银行报告 表示巴西草甘膦悬浮的威胁仍然存在，如果农民被迫采购替代除草剂，他们将面临更高的成本。
8 月，一名巴西法官下令暂停销售和使用草甘膦，直至巴西卫生监管机构完成毒性重新评估。禁令 被推翻 9 月，但草甘膦禁令的支持者仍可能对该决定提出上诉。报告称，如果该判断仍然存在，由于对该产品的高度依赖，大豆链可能会在下一个作物季节面临控制杂草侵扰的困难。
Rabobank 预计下一季巴西大豆种植面积扩张的步伐将受到轻微影响。这将略微抑制生产潜力。尽管不会削减现有田地的种植面积，但如果缺乏替代除草剂，产量仍可能受到负面影响。
“If the glyphosate suspension continues, farmers will have to go back to the market and procure substitutes for this active ingredient – an alternative is a basket of herbicides used in conventional soybean areas. This could increase farmers’ expenditure on herbicides by around 80%, at current prices, or $30/ha. Although, the increase in costs could be much higher because the additional demand will boost the prices of other herbicides,” the report says.
巴西将于 9 月中旬开始播种 2018/19 季，荷兰合作银行预计巴西大豆种植面积将达到 3670 万公顷，高于上季的 3510 万公顷。鉴于更高的出口溢价和巴西雷亚尔贬值，良好的利润率预期推动了面积的潜在增长。
“We cannot ignore the scenario in which farmers are both unable to use glyphosate and are unable to find enough substitute products in the market. The reduction in demand for the substitutes during last decades has affected production and current stocks level could not fulfil demand expectations. This means that the ban could cause unpredictable losses in soybean yields, in total Brazilian crop size, and in uncountable losses for the whole chain,” according to the report.
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