全球农作物观察家之间的谈话表明，随着农民继续利用有利的软商品价格并投资于更高的产量，杀菌剂的全球使用量将继续超过杀虫剂和除草剂市场。与此同时，杀菌剂制造商计划应对多样化的世界气候和市场条件。
The global agrochemical market will keep growing in the future – around 2.2% annually between 2010 and 2015, according to Phillips McDougall. However, fungicides are expected to have a higher growth rate than insecticides, so in the mid term (by 2015) fungicides will have a higher market value than insecticides.
“In 2009 and 2010, we didn’t see quite as much fungicide growth as we expected,” says Matthew Phillips, partner at Phillips McDougall. “That was primarily due to later warm weather.
In 2011, we saw early spring. Fungicides are primarily a crop-driven market that drives yield. When you’ve got increased wealth and economic conditions, you’ll generally see more fungicide usage. As go good crops, here come fungicides.”
Early seasonal crops in Europe and South America tend to have a trickle-down effect for fungicide use by farmers in the United States, he adds. “We’re looking at three seasonal applications, the third being the most expensive. All have a ‘greening effect’ that keeps crops fresh. When the economics are right, farmers will invest vast monies to bolster yields.”
Significantly, high soft commodity prices also play a key role in fungicide usage. A primary indicator of the soft commodity market is cotton. For example, the US market saw historic levels of increases in 2010 with prices spiking 80% in summer months to the $1.30-a-pound range. “Due to high soft commodity prices, farmers have been willing to invest in their crops and apply fungicide even in situations with less disease pressure,” says Elise Kisling, BASF head of media relations, crop protection.
目前有五种产品推动杀菌剂市场。
- 嘧菌酯（每年 $10 亿）
- 嘧菌酯（$7亿）
- 代森锰锌（$6亿）
- 百菌清（$535万）
- 铜基杀菌剂（$4.5亿）
A new trend emerging among fungicide manufacturers is treating “disease complexes” with chemicals that stem more than one disease state. These hydrogenate inhibitors “kill a whole trend of diseases. It’s like taking medicine for headache and having it treat your headache and your allergy at the same time,” Phillips says.
当今对杀菌剂的主要要求是有效的病害控制、广谱控制、生理效应、法规规定的使用限制、最大残留水平、耐药性管理和易于使用的配方。
“BASF is planning to address the needs of farmers with several new technologies. In fungicides, the main innovations will be Xemium, which has an active ingredient for broad-spectrum disease control in a wide range of crops for reliable and flexible use, which provides higher yield and improved quality, and Initium, which has an environmentally friendly chemistry with a new mode of action for vine and vegetable growers,” Kisling says.
An increase in worldwide demand for high-quality food is perhaps the most compelling factor driving fungicide use. This is particularly true of driving the yield of Europe’s wheat and barley, fruits and vegetables, soybeans, rice, and maize, Phillips says.
Feeding a growing world population is daunting to today’s farmers. “Today’s growers face a huge challenge: They will be instrumental in feeding a growing global population,” says Pete Thomas, global portfolio manager, DuPont Crop Protection. “We will need to double food production by 2050 if we are to meet this escalating need. Clearly, improving crop productivity and protecting food quality is part of that equation.”
他说，包括中国和印度在内的快速发展中国家的人们对食物的需求量越来越大，并且寻求更有营养的食物。这些愿望正在增加对许多商品的需求，从谷物到蛋白质来源，这反过来又给商品价格带来了上行压力。
“So you can see we are serious about helping growers feed the world,” Thomas says. “Toward that end, we have developed collaborative approaches to research and development that are bringing new crop protection solutions to market more effectively and in concert with countries around the world.”
随着种植者开始看到杀菌剂在帮助他们实现这一目标方面的好处，他们更愿意投资这项技术。他们越愿意投资，作物保护对市场的价值就越大。
• Generic Agrochemical Companies Report Growth in 2010
“At DuPont, we see this as an opportunity to work with our customers to provide fungicide answers that help them continue to improve the health, quantity and quality of their crops in the face of the world’s growing food security challenges,” Thomas says. “Quite simply, it’s good business for them and it’s good business for us.”
杜邦一直在与世界各地的客户和监管机构合作，以 DuPont Approach 和 Acanto 为品牌推出基于啶氧菌酯的一系列产品中的几种新型杀菌剂，这些产品已在多个地区使用。 Approach 计划于 2012 年第二季度在美国推出，等待监管部门的批准。此外，该公司预计年底前将获得监管部门批准在美国推出另外两种新型杀菌剂 Fontelis 和 Vertisan。
菲利普斯说，寻找中国、印度和巴西成为推动农用化学品和杀菌剂增长的国家。
到 2015 年，这三个国家将代表近 40% 的农化市场增长。然而，根据巴斯夫提供的统计数据，来自美国、加拿大、德国和法国的增长将占农化市场增长的 15%。
“Growers adopt technology based on their specific local needs, pests and value that technology delivers,” says Paul Minehart, head of corporate communications North America, Syngenta.
Minehart 说，2010 年，新兴市场杀菌剂在拉丁美洲和亚洲的销量显着增加，这与技术采用的增加以及疾病压力有关。 2011 年上半年，所有地区（尤其是北美）的杀菌剂销售额均出现增长。
“Growers make their buying decisions based on need and value delivered,” Minehart says. “A combination of agronomic and market demands combined with advanced technology has impacted the uptake and use of fungicides.”