In 2008, fungicides overtook insecticides in global market value for the first time, giving producers newfound opportunities. Two main reasons stand out: The increased use of insect and herbicide resistant or tolerant crops, and farmers’ desire to maximize yields.
通用汽车减少农药使用
去年转基因 (GM) 作物种植面积增加 7% 至 1.34 亿公顷 (ha)。哥斯达黎加于 2009 年加入转基因国家，而欧盟批准种植 巴斯夫公司’s Amflora potato in March.
GM cultivation is growing, and with 25 countries now planting biotech crops, insecticides have taken a hit. One of GM’s marketing points is that it reduces the need for chemical pesticides; therefore, the growing market segment of biotech crops has lessened sales of pesticides that perform the same duty as the insect-resistant crops. “Insecticides and herbicides can be affected by biotechnological solutions like 基于BT的 cotton or glyphosate-resistant crops. So far, no such program is noticed in fungicides,” says N.C. Rane, general manager, strategy and international business for Mumbai, India-based fungicide manufacturer 吲哚非.
Other industry sources agree. “There’s no direct impact on the fungicides market from GM crops, whereas insect resistance and herbicide-tolerant varieties have taken some value out of the herbicide and insecticide markets,” says Matthew Phillips of agriculture consulting firm 菲利普斯·麦克杜格尔. “This resulted in different market conditions.”
The drop has not been drastic, though. “We have lost some value from the uptake of insect-resistant GM crops,” says Phillips. “The traits used for insect resistance predominantly affect some lepidopteran species and have not as yet moved specifically out of the lepidopteran area. There’s still a significant market for other pest species.”
Manufacturers counting on the continued need for insecticides are looking to innovation to compensate for market trends. “We have not backed off on our insecticides; in fact, we increased it a few years ago with our discovery program looking for new active ingredients, new modes of action,” says BASF’s Dr. Rick Chamblee, manager of technical services and pipeline expert. “We put a little more focus on the sucking insects — aphids, whiteflies, plant bugs, things like that. But if we had a good lepidopteran compound come along in our discovery efforts, we would certainly entertain bringing it to the marketplace.”
Rane also offers words of caution: “Value increase may not be a correct indicator of increase in usage,” he says, explaining that three basic fungicides — copper-based, sulphur-based, and EBDC — experienced a huge cost increase in 2009. “There was also a general increase in most other fungicides,” Rane says. “This cost increase had led to price increases in the fungicide market. We do not see a usage trend wherein fungicides outstripped all three classes of pesticides on a global level.” However, Rane added, “There was definitely some increase in fungicide usage in Europe due to climate.”
| 各国转基因作物 | ||
| 国家 |
区域 （百万公顷） |
庄稼 |
| 美国 | 64 | 大豆、玉米、棉花、油菜、南瓜、木瓜、苜蓿 |
| 巴西 | 21.4 | Soybean, corn, cotton |
| 阿根廷 | 21.3 | 大豆、玉米、棉花 |
| 印度 | 8.4 | 棉布 |
| 加拿大 | 8.2 | 油菜、玉米、大豆、甜菜 |
| 中国 | 3.7 | 棉花、番茄、杨树、木瓜、甜椒 |
| 巴拉圭 | 2.2 | 黄豆 |
| 南非 | 2.1 | 大豆、玉米、棉花 |
| 乌拉圭 | 0.8 | 大豆、玉米 |
| 玻利维亚 | 0.8 | 黄豆 |
| 菲律宾 | 0.5 | 玉米 |
| 澳大利亚 | 0.2 | Cotton, canola |
| Source: ISAAA | ||
|
以下国家在 2009 年也种植了转基因作物：布基纳法索、智利、哥伦比亚、哥斯达黎加、捷克共和国、埃及、洪都拉斯、墨西哥、波兰、葡萄牙、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克和西班牙。 |
||
农民采用杀菌剂
Longer-term, farmers are looking at fungicides to drive quality and yield. While the segment has been somewhat marginalized in the past, the more educated growers become, the more they realize the benefit fungicides can have on production. “What we’ve seen emerge is a grower segment, growing fairly rapidly, looking to maximize their yield profitably and have high-quality crops,” says Chamblee. “They want to have more efficient operations, and certainly manage their risk. We believe that’s a very big driver for this.”
This trend is expected to continue, because fungicides drive yield and quality, says Phillips. “In 2008, you had a very strong fungicide year in the US on maize and soybeans, and also in EU on cereals because of the drive to maximize yields,” he says. “The long-term trend is because of the advanced developing countries where the general economy is improving rapidly; people have more money to spend on food; they want more food, they want better quality food.”
根据一项研究表明，当出现叶面病害时，叶面杀菌剂可使每英亩大豆产量提高 3 蒲式耳。 先锋良种, 种子业务 杜邦.
Companies such as Indofil, which specializes in fungicides like mancozeb, are continuing to push these yield-increasers through the pipeline. “We have four generic fungicides under development,” says Rane, adding that the company is also investing in manufacturing and data development for EBDC and cymoxanil. “Going forward, Indofil will continue its development in fungicides for fruits and vegetables, potato, grapes and banana.”
Chamblee believes another reason the fungicide market is growing is the availability of better products. “As an example, Headline wasn’t available a few years back,” he says. “It’s a very broad-spectrum fungicide that gives excellent disease control and other plant health benefits such as stress relief on the crop and helps their product operate more efficiently.”
昆虫生长旺盛
The value of the insecticide market in 2010 will mostly depend on one factor: the weather. In an El Niño year, much of the world sees wetter weather, whether it manifests in heavy rains and flooding or in massive amounts of snow, like the US eastern seaboard experienced this winter. “A lot of snow cover going on, which can impact insect survival,” says Chamblee. “Snow sometimes is an insulator.”
This year’s El Niño is “moderate to strong,” according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration. South America will be warm; North America will be wet; and Southeast Asia and Australia can expect to see drought. The increase in insect pressure in warmer, wetter regions could improve sales of insecticides this year. China is also predicting a higher pest occurrence in 2010 compared to a mild insect presence last year.
Climate change in coming years will also increase insect life cycles; as the world gets warmer, insects have more chances to breed. The soybean aphid, for example, is becoming an annual pest, says Chamblee. “What we’ve seen over the last few years is that it used to be a predictable pest, every other year; now it seems like they want to come along every year. We’re seeing more and increased applications for soybean aphid.”
除草剂坚持下去
据孟山都称，2010 年草甘膦的全球品牌净平均售价预计约为每加仑 US$10 至 $12。供应应该不是问题； 3 月，孟山都公司宣布在美国路易斯安那州新奥尔良郊外新建工厂，扩大草甘膦生产规模，这将使 Roundup 产能提高 20%。
“The shift toward herbicide-tolerant crops and increasing usage of glyphosate has resulted in some value being lost in the marketplace in overall terms,” says Phillips. A key factor in the herbicide sector is the price of glyphosate, “Because that has a significant impact on the overall value of the herbicide market.”
However, glyphosate is only part of the herbicide market, and glyphosate resistance offers opportunities. “It wasn’t long ago people were saying that glyphosate would be the only herbicide that you’d need,” says Chamblee. “They weren’t worried about resistance issues with glyphosate. We looked at it from a different tact, and that’s the reason we’re able to bring on our Kixor product line in 2010. We’ll be launching that into four different products: Integrity, in corn; OpTill, in soybeans; Sharpen, in multiple crops for burn-down and residual; and Treevix, in tree crops.”
这种趋势将走向何方？
Despite this short-term reality, R&D pipelines are strong, according to basic producers. “We have 28 products that we’ll introduce over the next four years, 2010-13,” says Chamblee. BASF, which accounts for 40% of new active ingredients in the last seven years, will introduce 16 more. “Not only fungicides, herbicides, and insecticides, but split among the different crop groups, as well. There are things for row crop farmers, cereal farmers, and specialty crop farmers.”
其他公司似乎也有同感；市场上不乏新的除草剂或杀虫剂，虽然预计杀菌剂的销量会增长，但它们增加的销量不应过多地切入其他领域。
“While GM acceptance is growing, it’s still a hot-button issue in many parts of the world,” says Phillips. “With many countries still opposed to the acceptance of GM food, herbicides and insecticides still have a definite place in crop protection.”