一周年 Bayer’s September 14, 2016 announcement that it had agreed to acquire Monsanto 每股$128的全现金交易正在临近。在过去的两个月里，孟山都的交易价格平均比该报价低 8.4%， 根据 John Abbink 在 SeekingAlpha.com 上的一篇文章.
与交易宣布后立即贴现的水平相比，这是一个相当大的收窄。但这仍然是一个相当大的折扣，至少表明套利者仍不确定收购何时结束。信心 Bayer’s CEO expressed on July 27 that, as Bayer has always hoped, it will close before the end of 2017, 似乎没有给可能把钱押在线上的交易员留下深刻印象。如果有，他们不太可能将他建议的 21.5% 的无杠杆年化回报率留在桌面上。由于套利者通常杠杆化三到四倍，他们会在五个月内将其转化为 60% 至 80% 的回报。
然而，时间只是一个问题。鉴于为获得监管批准而提取的特许权 陶氏/杜邦 和 中国化工/先正达 transactions, the value of Monsanto to Bayer could end up falling short of the consideration Bayer has offered for it. Sufficiently onerous regulatory demands — involving pieces of Bayer’s existing business as well as parts of Monsanto’s — could subtract enough value from the proposed combination to kill it. Abbink said he was not aware of anyone predicting this, but that it is by no means impossible.