By this time of the year (at this writing, it’s early November), we usually have a pretty clear picture of where agriculture is headed in the year to come. There are always surprises, of course, but we are rarely caught flat footed as we look over the horizon.
感觉明显不一样 当我们审视 2009 年的前景时。我们最初认为可能只会在美国造成问题的经济危机很快在全世界引发了货币灾难的涟漪。 And the initial days following the election of a new president have not provided any more clarity on the global economy.一句话，不确定性。
我们为来年做了很多准备工作，包括我们自己的内部计划会议、读者调查、你们中的许多人参与的行业研究以及与行业专家的圆桌讨论。每个问题都会产生一些关键问题，然后我们将这些问题用作来年计划的基础。
我们主持了一次这样的会议 was held in mid-October in Chicago, Illinois — the timing just late enough to give the 20 invited industry experts a flavor for how challenging the economic situation was going to get.
会议的一个主要目标是提出与来年相关的关键问题，并努力就我们应该采取的方向达成某种解决方案。在这种经济环境下提出问题只会制造更多问题。
What appears to be the biggest question right now in the US is: Can growers get the credit they need to produce the crops they want to produce? This was proving to be a difficult question even before the economic crisis — crop prices have been dropping precipitously from their record high levels late spring and early summer this year, while the cost of fertilizer, crop protection, and seed have gone up with no clear signs of relief. As growers do the numbers, they are finding that the cost of inputs placed against current crop prices won’t even deliver a break-even balance sheet.
厂商担心 that orders for product on the books could be dropped by growers who are not able to get credit. Purchases made based on the anticipation of “high clover” economic times for the foreseeable future could be postponed or cut.
At this point these are worst case scenarios — some experts say that because the rural banking community did not get caught up in the risky real estate ventures that have brought down so many of the larger financial institutions, growers will be in better shape to get credit than their urban counterparts. But that remains to be seen.
在不同的战线上, biofuels in the US — or, at least the concept of corn-based ethanol — suffered against the wildly fluctuating price of corn in 2008 and, more recently, the global drop in oil prices. Verasun, one of the country’s largest ethanol manufacturers, was forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as a result of having to buy corn to feed ethanol facilities at those high mid-year prices.
以玉米为原料的乙醇作为燃料贸易的食品在世界范围内广受批评，它不会完全消失。但人们清楚地认识到，生物燃料的未来发展不会涉及粮食作物。它会朝哪个方向移动？总之，不确定性。
明年商品作物种植者将种植什么？在美国，农民的收入创历史新高。因此，尽管他们对未来一年的繁荣前景更加悲观，但总体情绪并不像人们预期的那么糟糕。实际上，由于总体投入需求较低，种植者似乎希望种植更多的大豆而不是玉米。美国棉花带似乎特别准备将棉花推向豆类。但美国中西部仍将有大量玉米发芽。
尽管前路充满不确定性，但归根结底，我们是让衣食住行成为可能的行业。我们在 农用化学品国际 致力于为您提供信息和资源，帮助您应对前方的困难水域。祝您 2009 年事业蒸蒸日上，期待为您服务。