由于中国、印度和其他国家希望增加储备，今年小麦、玉米、大豆和棉花的收成尤为重要。
“Prices of commodities are high by historical standards,” says Dr. William G. Tomek, Professor Emeritus at Cornell University. This has, in turn, caused a steep increase in farm incomes.
中国和印度不断增长的人口和收入继续成为商品需求的重要推动力，因为更好的饮食增加了对牲畜和饲料的需求。
小麦
Wheat export demand remains strong in the US, Tomek says. Prices are more than a dollar a bushel over last year’s price, and the crop is not in short supply.
“In the US, the increase in grain production is also related to the increase in productivity: a 0.5-bushel-per-acre increase in yield in addition to a 45,000- acre increase in harvested area,” says Bill Coe, partner and US agribusiness leader, Pricewaterhouse Coopers.
美国农业部将其美国小麦出口预测上调 100 万吨至 2650 万吨，因为作为原料的小麦对韩国和墨西哥的销售量继续增加。
In South America, Brazil’s 2011/12 wheat imports are estimated 7.1 million metric tons (mmt), a 6% increase from 2010/11 due to higher domestic consumption. Brazil historically has produced enough wheat to meet only half of its consumption needs, USDA said in a recent production report.
Coe 说，阿根廷的气候条件导致美国、乌克兰、欧盟 27 国、俄罗斯和巴西等其他国家在出口中占据更大的地位。
玉米
美国是最大的玉米生产国和出口国，正努力跟上需求的步伐。
“The corn market is now highly dependent on the next US crop and hence farmers’ intentions to plant (expected acreage) will influence prices,” Tomek says. “The new crop, about to be planted in North America, will be critical to future supplies.”
Coe 说，自 2009 年以来，玉米市场一直很火爆，主要是由于对其用于生物燃料的需求增加以及全球肉类消费量的增加，因此玉米作为动物饲料的原材料具有独特的重要性。
然而，据美国农业部称，由于美国和乌克兰创纪录的收成压低了 2012/13 年度全球价格，乌克兰在过去几年因干旱造成巨大损失后，正成为一个竞争市场。在欧盟，玉米饲料估计数正在上升，因为预计谷物将取代价格较高的小麦作为原料。
大豆
2012 年初，南美大豆产量下降了 1200 万吨，导致美国大豆价格迅速上涨。
““The price of soybean, similar to corn, will be to rise due to the decrease in Argentina’s and Brazil’s production caused by the huge drought in the main agricultural regions,” Coe says.
In the 2011/12 harvest, La Niña caused a huge drought that drastically impacted the production of soybean and corn in both Brazil and Argentina, which directly contributed to the trends of high in commodity prices, he says.
The USDA recently cut Brazil’s soybean exports for 2012 to 36.9 million tons, or by 900,000 tons because of reduced production and strong demand by domestic processors. However, global soybean demand has as major buying countries have decreased their imports.
棉布
据美国农业部称，预计 2012 年全球棉花产量将下降，而今年消费量预计将增加。
Cotton Australia reported that the country’s cotton crop is forecast to reach 4.4 million bales this season. In contrast, US cotton growers are hoping to recover from severe drought during the 2011 production season.
“US production is highly dependent on whether the huge West Texas growing area comes out of the drought this year or not,” said Andy Ryan, Senior Risk Management Consultant for INTL FCStone LLC . “Production there was dramatically lower last season and prospects for this year are highly weather dependent.”