巴西:2OO7 及以后

2007 年,巴西农业综合企业的增长率超过巴西国内生产总值 (GDP) 的增长 7.89%,总计 $359 亿美元。在供应链中,增长更大,为 12.99%。对于 2008 年,预测将再次攀升 5.8%,同样优于 GDP 增长预测。这些数字与 2005 年和 2006 年形成鲜明对比,当时农业综合企业报告的数字令人失望:分别为 -4.66% 和 0.45%。

The current positive performance comes as a result of a number of factors, such as the all-time high grain harvest of 131.5 million tons and the steep climb in agricultural commodity prices (dry beans by 102%, soybeans by 97%, and corn by 35%), even considering the sharp devaluation of the dollar vis-à-vis the local currency by 16.9% in 2007.

整体的一部分

在全球范围内,食品需求紧张、全球谷物库存下降以及生物燃料生产代替食品的增长可能会保持农业综合企业的这一趋势,尤其是在该行业的主要参与者之一巴西。然而,由于美国次级抵押贷款市场的后果,这一大局可能会发生变化,迄今为止,这一市场尚未得到适当的了解或评估。

In the pesticide market, these factors have led to an excellent sales performance of approximately US $5.31 billion (distributor level), representing a 28% growth compared to 2006. Considering that 2006 was an atypical year — as a result of the sum of a number of negative variables — the 2005 to 2007 market growth was an impressive 20%, representing an average yearly growth of 8% since 2000. The prospects for this year are bright as well, with sales in excess of US $6 billion.

市场构成

该行业的 15 家顶级公司的销售额为 $53 亿美元,占整个市场的 95% 以上,其中大多数是全球公司。近三年,行业排名变化不大;突出显示没有。 1、先正达销售额接近$10亿美元,较2006年增长29.23%。

The four top players — 先正达, 拜耳, 巴斯夫公司,和 孟山都 — are way ahead of all others in revenues, in product portfolio (with the exception of Monsanto), and in off-patent threats for key products (again with the exception of Monsanto), to name a few.

Taken together, the four top players’ total revenues of US $2.75 billion represent a market share of 50% of the market as a whole. Among the top 15 there is only one domestic corporation, Nortox, which has held the same position for the last three years.

由此得出竞争激烈的结论。信用额度和付款期限很长(在某些情况下可能长达 520 天),市场需要广泛的产品组合、面向大型最终用户的直接销售和技术援助。

The key sellers of “me-too” products — Milenia/马克特希姆-阿甘, 纽发姆, 诺托克斯,和 切米诺娃 — totaled US $929 million in sales, representing 17.4% of the market. Contrary to conventional wisdom, in view of the market share of these four players, it seems that having lower than average market prices is not enough to ensure success in this marketplace, as is the case in many other countries.

重点产品

除了上述经济/结合因素外,一个关键问题是亚洲大豆锈病管理的技术发展,由 豆薯层锈菌,这在过去六年中导致了大约 $100 亿美元的损失。

管理包括对亚洲大豆锈病爆发的密集监测和收获之间 90 天的种植禁令(通常有利于种植目的),以及消除在此期间可能自发生长的任何植物。

Also, with the launch of new “me-too” products, the cost of fungicide applications was reduced by approximately 10%. As a result, the sales of fungicides from chemical families such as triazole and strobilurin has dropped.

然而,由于大豆价格高昂,没有人会冒险不使用杀真菌剂对农场进行处理以预防该病害。考虑到大豆是巴西农药的主要市场,接近 50%,其次是甘蔗、棉花和玉米,这些作物的任何变化都会对整个市场产生重大影响。

因此,随着在大豆锈病防治方面的成功努力,杀菌剂在巴西最畅销产品中的市场份额被杀虫剂夺走。

最大的市场份额在于除草剂,由于转基因生物 (GMO) 种植的增长以及该国最畅销产品草甘膦价格的上涨,预计这不会发生变化。杀螨剂等其他品种主要用于柑橘和棉花,种植面积稳定,销量持平。

政策动向

Since the enactment of the Brazilian legislation on the registration of “me-too” products based on product equivalency which has been in force since December 2006, many new players are trying to enter the market, especially small-sized domestic corporations and foreign companies from India and China.

从新获批的注册开始,多次重复注册,抢占大量经销商,让不同品牌的经销商尽可能多的买到产品,同一个注册数据包,价格便宜很多比新注册。被称为克隆的工具正在变得相当普遍。在某些情况下,同一注册已被克隆五次。

目前,巴西是迄今为止农药市场上最赚钱的国家。拥有生产甘蔗酒精和使用酒精作为燃料的尖端技术;广阔的农业边界(世界上最大的);凭借其在农产品生产方面的能力和专业水平,巴西正在实现飞跃,成为农药销售的 #1,很快就会超过美国。