亚洲连续第四年令人印象深刻的经济增长和世界大部分地区有利的天气条件为 2007 年强劲的农产品市场奠定了基础。自 2007 年上半年以来，农产品市场状况异常好，全球谷物需求旺盛，推动由生物乙醇和肉类部门。二十年来最低的库存转化为小麦、玉米和大米的高价格；由于生产被谷物取代，大豆和棉花库存下降，价格上涨。
Since the prices of their crops weigh heavily in farmers’ decisions regarding fertilizer usage, global consumption is expected to remain at a high level for the foreseeable future.
商品前景乐观
Given the continued political pressure for biofuel production and changing dietary preferences, the outlook is likely to remain rosy for agricultural commodities. Meat production, which requires significant inputs of cereals for feed, is increasing as a result of higher incomes, especially in China and India. IFA’s review of global fertilizer use by crop revealed that oft-cited figures overstate the share of cereals and overlook the importance of fruit and vegetable production as a key driver of fertilizer demand today.
Against this backdrop, 2007 was a record production year for most nutrients as buoyant demand stretched the industry’s ability to provide adequate supply.
氮平衡
2007年氮肥供需基本平衡，多数生产商开工接近产能，出口国停产和新产能延迟增加了合成氨和尿素供应紧张。预计 2008 年氮过剩量将扩大三分之一，但如果需求保持坚挺且目前闲置的工厂未重新投入使用，则可能会降至 1.5% 以下。
磷酸盐产量增长
在磷酸盐方面，岩石产量在两年下降后有所上升，贸易有所扩大。由于生产国国内需求旺盛，磷酸供应紧张，但贸易平稳。 2007 年运力下降，但 2008 年将超过反弹。但是，由于需求将保持同步，平衡将保持紧张。
加工磷酸盐的产量有所增长，但产能几乎没有扩张，氨和硫磺等投入品的成本继续攀升。磷酸一铵贸易量的增加足以弥补磷酸二铵贸易量的下降。
需求钾肥
Stronger-than-anticipated demand for potash in 2007 stretched producers’ ability to supply a widening base of customers. Indeed, a rapid decline of the prevailing surplus has been witnessed since 2006. Important capacity additions were completed in 2007, mostly in Canada and China, and should be fully operational by the end of 2008. Furthermore, non-readily available capacity in Canada will also be operational by the end of 2008.
硫磺强
过去一年强劲的需求和低于预期的产量使硫磺市场保持强劲。由于贸易受到物流限制，这将价格推至二十年来的最高点。净供应短缺导致生产商诉诸库存撤回。市场预计将在 2008 年达到相对平衡，并在 2009 年走向显着盈余。
亚洲连续第四年令人印象深刻的经济增长和世界大部分地区有利的天气条件为 2007 年强劲的农产品市场奠定了基础。自 2007 年上半年以来，农产品市场状况异常好，全球谷物需求旺盛，推动由生物乙醇和肉类部门。二十年来最低的库存转化为小麦、玉米和大米的高价格；由于生产被谷物取代，大豆和棉花库存下降，价格上涨。
Since the prices of their crops weigh heavily in farmers’ decisions regarding fertilizer usage, global consumption is expected to remain at a high level for the foreseeable future.
商品前景乐观
Given the continued political pressure for biofuel production and changing dietary preferences, the outlook is likely to remain rosy for agricultural commodities. Meat production, which requires significant inputs of cereals for feed, is increasing as a result of higher incomes, especially in China and India. IFA’s review of global fertilizer use by crop revealed that oft-cited figures overstate the share of cereals and overlook the importance of fruit and vegetable production as a key driver of fertilizer demand today.
Against this backdrop, 2007 was a record production year for most nutrients as buoyant demand stretched the industry’s ability to provide adequate supply.
氮平衡
2007年氮肥供需基本平衡，多数生产商开工接近产能，出口国停产和新产能延迟增加了合成氨和尿素供应紧张。预计 2008 年氮过剩量将扩大三分之一，但如果需求保持坚挺且目前闲置的工厂未重新投入使用，则可能会降至 1.5% 以下。
磷酸盐产量增长
在磷酸盐方面，岩石产量在两年下降后有所上升，贸易有所扩大。由于生产国国内需求旺盛，磷酸供应紧张，但贸易平稳。 2007 年运力下降，但 2008 年将超过反弹。但是，由于需求将保持同步，平衡将保持紧张。
加工磷酸盐的产量有所增长，但产能几乎没有扩张，氨和硫磺等投入品的成本继续攀升。磷酸一铵贸易量的增加足以弥补磷酸二铵贸易量的下降。
需求钾肥
Stronger-than-anticipated demand for potash in 2007 stretched producers’ ability to supply a widening base of customers. Indeed, a rapid decline of the prevailing surplus has been witnessed since 2006. Important capacity additions were completed in 2007, mostly in Canada and China, and should be fully operational by the end of 2008. Furthermore, non-readily available capacity in Canada will also be operational by the end of 2008.
硫磺强
过去一年强劲的需求和低于预期的产量使硫磺市场保持强劲。由于贸易受到物流限制，这将价格推至二十年来的最高点。净供应短缺导致生产商诉诸库存撤回。市场预计将在 2008 年达到相对平衡，并在 2009 年走向显着盈余。
This article is based on reports presented by Michel Prud’homme and Patrick Heffer, available on IFA’s Web site, www.fertilizer.org.