干旱的未来

在最近的一篇社论中,我提出了生物燃料成为现代农业中几个严重问题的替罪羊的话题,最重要的是食品价格的快速上涨。

Opinions I received on the topic were mixed. Some readers believed (correctly, I think) that part of the problem is certainly attributable to the crop area shifts and lower availability of feed corn as contributing to price increases — one reader in China noted that the cost of milk, in particular, has skyrocketed, as a result of the increase in costs for dairy farmers.

On the other hand, as I referenced in the editorial, there is also a certain amount of reactionary backlash that isn’t as well founded. The price of rice, which has also risen and provides the bigger issue for the world’s food supply, as it is our most important food crop, overall – is only slightly affected by biofuel production. Sure, input costs for rice farmers are affected by input price increases, but not at the level of more intensely farmed crops. In its case, weather is the bigger topic, especially as we gain a clearer understanding of the debated issue of global warming.

我最近读了一篇关于 黎明网,一个巴基斯坦新闻网站,讨论了该国大米的价格飙升(在某些情况下翻了一番,甚至更多),这导致了许多其他问题,例如经销商削减低质量的溢价和消费者尽可能少地购买存活。

几个亚洲国家政府的直接反应是介入并试图通过政策手段阻止价格上涨:文章指出印度已呼吁实施出口禁令以控制价格;其他国家已经或正在考虑配给制度或征收出口税,以将大米留在国内。

很难说这些是否是可持续的举措。也许一年后稻米丰收,问题就会得到解决,价格就会恢复正常。但如果没有,水稻仍有希望,以种子技术的形式出现。

许多团体和公司都在关注耐旱水稻品种,包括主要的种子企业、学术机构和政府机构。而且,值得庆幸的是,还有大量的合作可以使这些技术起步。

今天和未来几年,农业的权重增加可能不会成为问题。事实上,如果生物燃料要对饥饿负责,那可能只是因为尽管生物燃料成为了媒体和全球研发部门的焦点,但我们面临的最紧迫的问题却被忽视了。

如果要认真对待气候变化,我们就需要准备好改变我们的农业生产方式;缺水意味着更多的作物需要更少的水滴。现在在耐旱作物上所做的工作,即使它在媒体雷达下仍然关注生物燃料,也可能使我们能够避免未来世界饥饿加剧。