Never one to shy away from an opportunity to prognosticate, Farm Chemicals International’s sister publication, CropLife asked Jim Budzynski of MacroGain Partners to project out to the end of 2013 and provide a prediction for what the industry will look like, what surprise we would have encountered during the year and what big concern the industry will be focused on going into 2014. Here’s what he shared with us:
你认为明年这个时候会是什么样子？
我认为 ag 的牛市还会再长一年，而且会更强劲，也许会进入第 5 或第 6 局。相比之下，美国经济其他领域的疲软（部分原因是欧洲的混乱局面和中国经济放缓）将使美国农业更具吸引力。
2013 年会发生什么意外，我们需要做出反应？
The industry will be surprised by the number of “cross sector deals” by established companies as ag production technology convergence deepens. Also surprising is the number of financial investors who move from purchasing land to purchasing private agribusinesses (chemicals, specialty fertilizer, niche seeds, and ag retail). For example, the explosion of seed treatments will make deals between seed, nutrition, crop protection and equipment companies ever more common as companies seek to “control their destiny” by assembling all the technologies they need to succeed under one roof.
进入2014年，我们最关心的是什么？
In an election year the focus will shift to government support to agriculture, with farm support payments being endangered by the fiscal conservatives’ efforts to separate the food stamp program (“exorbitant”) from the rest of the farm bill, ironically resulting in significant damage to the traditional farm support lobby. Debate on government support to corn ethanol will also endanger support for 40% of U.S. corn demand.
此外，本·伯南克 (Ben Bernanke) 即将在美联储退休，这将使人们清楚地看到通过 QE1 至 QE5 货币刺激计划累积了多少额外的联邦债务，但没有多少可以证明这一点。大规模的凯恩斯主义印钞实验会继续吗？否则，大宗商品价格可能面临巨大压力。