India’s economy is red hot. Despite a global recession, the country has bolstered consumption, incomes, jobs, currency and investment. And the rising middle class is growing and fueling a prosperity like never seen before.
India’s Finance Ministry reported in August that the country’s GDP grew in the second quarter at 8.8% compared to the same period last year, and the government expects annual growth to exceed 9%, led largely on industrial manufacturing.
The country’s private sector is showing strong gains as a result of heightened consumption. The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, topped 19,000 for the first time since January 2008, rebounding from a May 25 low by 20%, the level that signifies a bull market according to some analysts.
India’s relative prosperity is the envy of many developed countries that have struggled to enjoy meaningful economic recovery. For the first time in modern history, it will likely be emerging economies that lead a reversal of the global economy instead of the West. The International Monetary Fund said recently that major emerging economies like China, India, Indonesia and Brazil are, in fact, leading the global economic recovery.
But India’s tale among these other major developing economies is a bit different. Unlike its counterparts, India’s growth is fueled largely by domestic consumption instead of exports. Indian exports account for less than 20% of its GDP. Instead, growth in India is led by services, which is 55% of India’s economy and is enjoying close to double-digit growth. Manufacturing expanded almost 12.5% so far this year, and mining rose almost 9%.
这种现象几乎触及经济的每个部门，包括电子、汽车、住房和服务。
And agriculture is reaping its rewards as well. Although the sector is not experiencing the meteoric rise of other parts of India’s economy, its steady increases continue to cater to a rising middle class who increasingly demand more diversity in their diet.
Agriculture output in India is expected to rise about 3% this year, although an extended monsoon season is hampering the ability to update those estimates. Agriculture’s total share of GDP might be declining: Agriculture is responsible for 20% of India’s GDP, down from 50% in 1950. However, India still is an agrarian economy providing employment to more than 65% of the population, and the practice of crop diversification in India holds larger importance in light of the changing consumer preferences.
The changing food consumption patterns of India’s population is expected to grow the sector in real terms to $230 billion by 2013, and a richer diet will also instigate heightened purchasing of major commodities as diets shift increasingly toward more processed foods.
Of course, India’s robust crop protection sector is reaping the rewards of this burgeoning adoption of a more diverse diet. Largely fueled by the fungicide market for higher-value fruits and vegetables, Indian pesticide manufacturers are experiencing a boom that correlates to rising discernment of the middle-class palate.
In the past three years, India’s crop protection industry has enjoyed double-digit growth, rising at a rate of 10% to 15% per year, according to data from PMFAI (Pesticide Manufacturers and Formulators Association of India). The total industry reached more than $3.35 billion in global sales in 2009, more than half of which — $1.8 billion — was used for domestic consumption. Many industry players expect the value of the domestic market to continue to rise.
“Agriculture practices are changing in India,” says Abhimanyu Jhaver, director of 塔格罗斯化工印度公司, a $300 million company in Egmore, Chennai. “Farmers are starting to use more modern molecules, and cropping practices are changing, too. Even the multinationals are introducing new products to capitalize on this, which has never happened in India.”
Indian farmers are experiencing a sort of renaissance, with support from private industry, academia and the government. A new generation of farmer is making its way into the Indian heartland. Government subsidies for education, crop production and inputs have made farmers more profitable in recent years, in turn creating a perpetuating cycle of more education — especially for farmers’ children — and more sophisticated agronomic practices.
结合土地改革，这些受过更好教育的农民和更多样化的作物预计将迎来农业和作物保护的快速扩张期，预计到 2014 年其价值将翻一番。有 11 家跨国公司在当地开展业务在印度，还有 60 家活性成分生产商和 450 家配方设计师。约80%的市场份额被仿制药控制。
“Over a period of time, we are going to see a consolidation of land happening in India,” says Vijay Mundhra, director of 柳林有限公司, which is based in Hong Kong but does its research, development, manufacturing and a majority of its sales in India. “More corporate groups are getting into farming, so there is going to be significantly greater use of modern techniques.”
India has already been a large user of insecticides, largely due to its huge cotton cultivation. Insecticides represent almost 60% of the country’s total domestic-use value, although the insecticide market is shrinking as the adoption of 基于BT的 棉花继续攀升。
The fungicide market is growing rapidly as well as a result of higher-quality fruits and vegetables making their way to the tables of India’s middle class. Second to China, India is the largest producer of fruits and vegetable in the world with 11.7 million hectares in cultivation, roughly 10% of global production.
“We are planning to introduce more fungicide combinations from group companies in India (to meet domestic need),” says Dinesh Prajapati, director of registrations and regulatory affairs for 旁遮普化工 在孟买。
除草剂可能是印度最大的增长部门。制造业和服务业收入的增加在全国范围内创造了更多的就业机会，使农业劳动力更难找到。这与较小的家庭相结合，正在更广泛地采用化学除草。
“The only answer in an economy where workers no longer want to do field labor is for farmers to use modern agriculture,” Mundhra says.
到目前为止，印度对农业劳动力的流失毫无准备。 2009 年约三分之一的作物损失归因于杂草管理不善。
除草剂和杀菌剂市场的增长前景如此看好，以至于领先的制造商都在投资基础设施以满足不断增长的需求并避免国内竞争。
Punjab Chemicals 于 2006 年收购了 IA & IC Chem Ltd.，以获得现代化设施来生产越来越受印度农民欢迎的 WDG 配方。如今，该公司能够生产硫 WDG、己唑醇和甲霜灵的现代制剂，并且正在开发戊唑醇制剂。
“We have a strong team that works with dealers, distributors and development that has resulted in better coverage of the domestic market,” Prajapati says. “Now we are in the process of developing newer, more effective fungicide combinations to combat the phenomenon of resistance, if any.”
预计更多的设施整合将继续进行，但 Willowood 在印度的增长更加有机。 Willowood 正在建设制造和研究设施，以补充其目前的业务。该公司计划在印度建立一个合成工厂，以及一个拥有足够种植面积的研发设施，以对其配方进行田间试验。
印度制造商面临的挑战仍然是产品注册。根据 PMFAI 的数据，印度目前注册的产品数量少得可怜，只有 194 种，不到邻国巴基斯坦 (495) 和其他新兴经济体的一半。
“The government is emphasizing the need for increased agriculture production to meet the demand of current trends as well as the demands of an increasing population to ensure food security and to compensate for possible agricultural shifts due to climate change,” says AIMCO农药 Managing Director Elizabeth Shrivastava, who cited Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s recent address that called for the country to double the farm growth rate.
“For this to happen, farmers must have access to new technologies and products more quickly,” she says. “Considering our diversity of crop, regions and pest complexities, we need more new products and the best crop protection technologies that are available to the rest of the world.