The world is in its fifth season of grain price volatility, and it doesn’t appear the ebbs and flows of key commodity crops will stabilize in 2012, analysts say.
自 2008 年以来，玉米、大豆、小麦和燕麦的价格一直很优惠，当时粮食短缺导致国家储备减少，并产生了一些无法预测的进出口计划。现在，分析师正试图确定大宗商品价格是否已达到新高，或者它们是否可能处于泡沫之中。
“Wheat, I would say, is priced too high right now,” said Jack Watts, senior analyst of cereals and oilseeds for UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board and the Home-Grown Cereals Authority. His comments came during a presentation at CropWorld London Oct. 31.
One reason for the inflationary prices is last year’s drought in the Black Sea region, which decimated the production of wheat, especially in Russia, the world’s fourth-largest producer behind China, India and the US. The US and Canada were able to fill some of the void. But the resulting low stock-to-use ratios painted a frightening picture for those in favor of more predictable prices.
“The world is becoming more reliant on less-stable markets for wheat production, and there is an export shift from the US to the Black Sea region,” Watts said.
造成高粮价和波动的主要因素有四个：
1) 不断增长的牲畜饲料需求转移了人类食物供应中的食物，并可能降低全球处于不稳定低点的库存使用率和国家储备。
2) 作物争夺耕地：玉米和大豆价格处于健康水平，农民不太愿意将土地用于种植小麦和燕麦。
3) 随着对食用油、原料和优质蔬菜的需求增加，新兴市场正在加剧市场状况。
4）投资界的投机创造了比实际生产更多的衍生品。
“Reactions in the futures market are not reflective of underlying fundamentals, but rather a reaction to what is going on today,” Andersons Research Economist Graham Redman said during a CropWorld discussion on hard grains. “But the noise created by the speculators is clouding the real factors contributing to volatility, such as demand. The 7 billionth consumer of agriculture was born today, and the industry might remain a bit unsettled until we know what policy developments and concerns might arise.”
据 CBOT 11 月 18 日报道，12 月交割的小麦价格下跌 8.25 美分至每蒲式耳 $5.90。 12 月玉米下跌 13.25 美分至每蒲式耳 $5.97； 12 月燕麦下跌 4 美分至每蒲式耳 $3； 1 月大豆价格下跌 16.25 美分至每蒲式耳 $11.52。