生物燃料提振欧盟油菜籽需求

尽管单产较低,但 2005 年欧盟双低油菜籽产量达到创纪录水平,原因是生物燃料生产商需求增加了专用面积,这一趋势将持续受生物燃料生产商需求的启发,这一趋势将在 2006 年继续。许多欧洲工厂生产生物柴油所需的作物油需求量很大,使欧盟价格高于国际价格。甚至压榨商也注意到了,许多人从大豆转向油菜籽。

根据欧盟统计局的数据,2005 年欧盟 25 国的油菜籽收成达到 1550 万吨,比该地区的五年平均水平增加 25%。

While the production increase was partly attributable to higher yielding canola hybrid varieties and the recent EU sugar reform (which called for 900,000 fewer hectares of sugar beets in the EU, thus creating more room for canola), the biggest force of change was demand for canola oil keying a growth in planted area — in 2005, there were 4.8 million hectares (Ha) planted with canola across the EU-25, which was 6% more than in 2004, and a 14% more than the average over the last five years. The rising demand for biodiesel is forecast to keep the price for canola oil constant — or even give it another boost. Oddly, forecasts see EU demand for canola oil in 2006 between 6 and 7 million tons. At the same time, prices for canola are weaker. The growing price differential is the result of a bottleneck: the production capacity of the oil mills is limited, so canola oil demand exceeds supply, despite an excess of canola.

局部变化

欧盟最大的两个油菜籽生产国是德国和法国,它们的油菜籽种植面积分别增加了 11% 和 9.9%。据 USDA-FAS 称,还有报道称,德国油菜种植面积的增长趋势仍在继续。与上一季相比,本季德国最重要的冬季油菜籽种植面积增加了 5.8%。 FAS Stockholm 报告称,2005-06 年瑞典冬季油菜籽种植面积增加了 40%,达到 50,000 公顷,而 FAS Paris 报告冬季油菜籽种植面积增加了 8%,达到 130 万公顷,将于 2006 年收获。波兰的播种面积与去年大致相同(约 500,000 公顷)。

面积增幅最大的是拉脱维亚和荷兰,这两个国家的同比增幅都很大。在拉脱维亚,油菜籽增长超过一倍,增长 228%%,而在荷兰,增长固定在 138%%。比利时的产量最高,达到 4.1 吨/公顷。西班牙的平均单产最低,为 1.1 吨/公顷,原因是该地区夏季严重干旱。

总体而言,2005 年欧盟油菜籽平均产量达到 2.7 吨/公顷。这比 2004 年创纪录的收成下降了近 20%,但比五年平均水平高 4.2%%。