分析师马修菲利普斯告诉 CAC 的与会者，在根据通货膨胀和货币估值进行调整后，作物保护行业将攀升约 8%。尽管 2011 年的最终计算结果尚未最终确定，但这比预期高出四倍。
2011 年强劲增长背后的许多原因与许多公司对 2012 年持乐观态度的因素相同：
1) 有利的商品价格产生了强劲的农业收入。
2) 对需要更多农作物投入的蛋白质饮食和蔬菜的需求不断增加。
3) 油价上涨可能会在未来几个月推高商品价格，强劲的期货市场就是明证。
4) 除草剂（尤其是草甘膦）的价格上涨，以及依赖麦草畏、2,4-D 和草甘膦的生物技术的采用增加。
5) Adverse 2011 weather events, such as flooding in Thailand, drought in the Black Sea Region, Japan’s tsunami and a heavy monsoon season in India are unlikely to repeat.
6) 2011 年全球谷物库存量低。
These factors and others have many analysts bullish on prospects for 2012, so much that companies are confident that farmers will be willing to pay higher prices for crop protection products in 2012. “The expectation in 2012 is that volumes will be about flat, but price inflation will create better value; farm incomes were favorable in 2011, and many companies are talking about price increases for 2012,” Phillips says.
尽管 Phillips 表示，包括欧盟和美国在内的成熟市场销量增长可能持平，但市场规模和价格走强应该会在 2012 年推动整体市场价值上升。
拉丁美洲和东南亚显示出最大的增长潜力，尽管每公顷的采用率仍落后于发达市场。 2012 年，由于种植面积增加、采用更好的种子技术（包括转基因）以及在商品价格上涨的情况下作物集约化，金砖国家显示出最大的扩张性增长潜力。
自 2008 年以来，杀菌剂的采用率继续增加，并且在作物保护方面的价值超过了杀虫剂，这一趋势预计将持续下去。
Weather events continue to be a wild card. Drought in Argentina could affect the country’s soybean crop. And political developments in the US and EU could drastically change the way subsidies are expressed in the two largest crop protection markets in the world.
Editor’s note: See our February issue for a complete 2012 Outlook on crop protection, fertilizer, biotechnology and ethanol subsidies.
Continue to tune in as FCI evaluates the 2012 US Farm Bill and the EU Common Agriculture Policy to determine how the world’s largest subsidy providers are changing the way they fund their farming systems that influence commodity prices around the world.