唐纳德·特朗普总统——对农用化学品和中国贸易的影响
2025 年 八月 1 日 自2025年4月2日“解放日”以来，美国进口商一直面临着巨大的不确定性，他们面临着巨大的担忧。不幸的是，这种不确定性将持续存在，直到特朗普政府能够与影响我们行业的关键国家完成互惠关税安排的谈判，以及/或者直到美国最高法院就政府行动的合宪性做出裁决。
对中国的芬太尼关税仍维持在20%的固定税率，且不享受出口退税。对不符合《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》（USMCA）原产地规则的进口产品，加拿大（现为35%）和墨西哥（现为25%）也征收芬太尼关税。
Reciprocal tariffs on China are currently set at a rate of 10%, with many exceptions that are applicable to all trading partners. While the exceptions list has been stable, the rate has been as high as 125%.
This rate is to be held until August 12. Secretary’s Bessent and Lutnik had a successful round of negotiations with their Chinese counterparts in Europe and came away with an agreement to extend the pause an additional 90 days, subject to a final decision by President Trump. While not yet finalized, it is likely that the pause will be extended until November 10, 2025. However, current reports suggest that China continues to hold back exports of rare earth metals and magnets. This may cause the Administration to reverse course and re-impose very high tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S.
美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）一直在与多个国家合作，试图达成协议。USTR所使用的杠杆是关税互惠，其理论上旨在抵消各国对美国出口产品征收的关税和非关税壁垒。
Many of these rates were recently modified by an exchange of letters. Many of these letters include significant commitments for investments in the U.S. (especially the EU, Japan, UK) as well as significant commitments to purchase U.S. Goods and Services. They all feature very favorable terms for U.S. exported goods, including the removal of non-tariff barriers and preferential duty-free tariff treatment.
Revised rates for countries important to agrochemical trade, effective August 7, 2025, appear to be as follows: Brazil (10% + 40%), EU (15%), India (25%), Indonesia (19%), Israel (15%), Japan (15%), Malaysia (19%), South Korea (15%), Switzerland (39%), Taiwan (20%), Vietnam (20%) and the UK (10%). It needs to be assumed that countries that are not on this list snapped back to the originally posted rates.
除中国、加拿大和墨西哥（适用于符合USMCA原产地规则的产品）外，所有国家现行的10%税率很可能将继续适用于所有其他国家。理论上，对于那些正在做出诚意努力的国家，或许仍有时间进行一些修改。然而，最终决定权显然在特朗普总统手中。
It appears that all of these agreements include a tariff on “transshipments” of 40%. The definition of such shipments is fuzzy at this time as generally such shipments are illegal. It appears that the intent is to apply this new 40% rate on top of existing penalties for such actions.
三个不同的法院已裁定总统的行为不符合他所引用的法规。这些行动中，唯一真正重要的可能是国际贸易法院（CIT）。该法院位于纽约市，由国会指定处理涉及国际贸易的争端。他们裁定整个计划无效，其中包括芬太尼关税（加拿大、墨西哥、中国）以及互惠关税。
The Administration promptly appealed and as of the date of this article, the CIT decision has been held open until the Appeals Court rules. Arguments were held in front of an 11-judge panel on July 31. Reports are that the judges were very skeptical of the Administration’s position
另外两起案件，一起发生在华盛顿特区，另一起发生在加利福尼亚州，很可能也会并入此案。
Whomever wins in the Appellate Division will surely appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. It is highly likely that a stay will be granted until they rule. It is hoped that the Supreme Court would take this case on an expedited schedule. However, even so, it is unlikely that a final ruling could be completed until the middle of quarter 4, at the earliest. If this schedule holds, the Administration will have plenty of running room to accomplish their objectives.
If the Supreme Court rules against the Administration, any tariff deals that have been made will likely be null and void. Further, such a ruling may require any tariffs that have been collected to be refunded. However, non-tariff provisions that have been agreed by individual trading partners might stick.
此外，还有一项集体诉讼，要求退还所有已支付的关税。如果法院判决政府胜诉，该诉讼将失去意义。
If the court rules against the Administration, there are other ways to accomplish their objectives. However, they are much more limited in scope and require notice and comment periods.
其中一个流程是允许在有限时间内（可能是 150 天）全面实施 15% 关税。
总统还可以扩大其第一届政府时期使用的、目前仍然对中国有效的301调查程序。鉴于中国已成为目标，他们或许可以继续以类似的方式对中国采取强硬态度。然而，其他目标国家则需要经过通知和评论期，该期限可能至少持续六个月。同时对多个国家采取此类行动将是史无前例的。
目前尚无迹象表明，除铜衍生物外，这些情况正在考虑适用201号法案（该法案需与国防相关）。针对铜化合物的新关税税率50%将于8月1日生效。
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