{"id":134947,"date":"2026-06-25T16:41:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T20:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=134947"},"modified":"2026-06-25T16:41:11","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T20:41:11","slug":"el-nino-and-agriculture-regions-most-at-risk-for-crop-and-weather-impacts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/zh\/markets\/africa-middle-east\/el-nino-and-agriculture-regions-most-at-risk-for-crop-and-weather-impacts\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u4e0e\u519c\u4e1a\uff1a\u4f5c\u7269\u548c\u5929\u6c14\u5f71\u54cd\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5730\u533a"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u7684\u00a0\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61<\/a>\u00a0\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u51e0\u5468\u5185\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u4f7f\u519c\u4e1a\u2026\u2026\u00a0<\/a>\u5168\u7403\u53d1\u51fa\u8b66\u62a5\u3002\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7cae\u98df\u53ca\u519c\u4e1a\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08\u7cae\u519c\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff09\u4e13\u5bb6\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u5206\u6790\u53ef\u4ee5\u8be6\u7ec6\u7ed8\u5236\u51fa\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u5f15\u53d1\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u548c\u7267\u573a\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u4e3a\u00a0\u4e16\u754c\u6c14\u8c61\u7ec4\u7ec7\uff08WMO\uff09<\/a>\u00a0\u7cae\u519c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u5468\u671f\u5c06\u6bd4\u5f80\u5e38\u66f4\u5f3a\u3002\u7cae\u519c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u5206\u6790\u501f\u9274\u4e86\u517641\u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u536b\u661f\u56fe\u50cf\u3002\u00a0\u519c\u4e1a\u80c1\u8feb\u6307\u6570\u7cfb\u7edf\uff08ASIS\uff09<\/a>\uff09\uff0c\u8ffd\u8e2a\u5f3a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u5357\u65b9\u6d9b\u52a8\uff08ENSO\uff09\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5f80\u5f80\u5bfc\u81f4\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u5730\u533a\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u8428\u8d6b\u52d2\u5730\u533a\u3001\u5357\u90e8\u975e\u6d32\u3001\u5357\u4e9a\u548c\u4e1c\u5357\u4e9a\u3001\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u5e72\u65f1\u8d70\u5eca\u548c\u52a0\u52d2\u6bd4\u5730\u533a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u4e3a\u4e25\u5cfb\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u519c\u4e1a\u548c\u7267\u573a\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u6709\u8d85\u8fc7 50% \u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u53d1\u751f\u5e72\u65f1\u3002.<\/p>\n

2015-16 \u5e74\u548c 2023-24 \u5e74\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u5bf9\u8bb8\u591a\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5730\u533a\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u5468\u671f\u66b4\u9732\u4e86\u540c\u6837\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u5f80\u5f80\u5f15\u53d1\u4f5c\u7269\u6b49\u6536\u3001\u7272\u755c\u635f\u5931\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u503a\u52a1\u589e\u52a0\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u5bfb\u627e\u98df\u7269\u548c\u6c34\u800c\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u8fc1\u5f99\u3002\u4ec5\u5728 2015-16 \u5e74\uff0c\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u5c31\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u2026\u2026\u00a0\u505a\u4f5c\u7684<\/a>\u00a0\u8d85\u8fc7 6000 \u4e07\u4eba\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u5728 23 \u4e2a\u56fd\u5bb6\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86 1450 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u63f4\u52a9\u547c\u5401\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u968f\u7740\u6781\u7aef\u6c14\u5019\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e0e\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u538b\u529b\u65e5\u76ca\u53e0\u52a0\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5982\u4eca\u5df2\u5411\u597d\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u503e\u659c\u3002\u201c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u5730\u7403\u6e29\u5ea6\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u95ee\u9898\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u65b0\u9636\u6bb5\u5c06\u5bf9\u90a3\u4e9b\u672c\u5c31\u8106\u5f31\u4e14\u5e94\u5bf9\u80fd\u529b\u6709\u9650\u7684\u5730\u533a\u9020\u6210\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u201d\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7cae\u519c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u81ea\u7136\u8d44\u6e90\u5b98\u5458\u8c6a\u5c14\u8d6b\u00b7\u963f\u5c14\u74e6-\u8d1d\u5c14\u7279\u5170\u8868\u793a\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u5730\u56fe\u7a81\u51fa\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5728\u9884\u6d4b\u53d8\u6210\u635f\u5931\u4e4b\u524d\u9700\u8981\u5c3d\u65e9\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4f18\u5148\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u65e5\u76ca\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\uff0c\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7cae\u519c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u7cae\u98df\u8ba1\u5212\u7f72\u5df2\u542f\u52a8\u4e00\u9879\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u00a0\u8054\u5408\u9884\u5148\u884c\u52a8\u4e0a\u8bc9<\/a>\u00a0\u4e3a\u4fdd\u62a422\u4e2a\u9ad8\u98ce\u9669\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684880\u4e07\u4eba\u514d\u53d7\u5f3a\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u547c\u5401\u7b79\u96c610\u4ebf\u81f32020\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6b64\u6b21\u52df\u6350\u65e8\u5728\u6269\u5927\u65e9\u671f\u5e72\u9884\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u652f\u6301\u519c\u6c11\u548c\u7267\u6c11\u3001\u63d0\u4f9b\u9884\u5148\u73b0\u91d1\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u52a0\u5f3a\u9884\u8b66\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u9632\u6b62\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u6d2a\u6c34\u548c\u98ce\u66b4\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u4eba\u9053\u4e3b\u4e49\u7d27\u6025\u60c5\u51b5\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u66dd\u5149\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u5730\u65b9<\/h2>\n

\u98ce\u9669\u5f88\u5c11\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4e0e\u964d\u96e8\u4e0d\u8db3\u6709\u5173\u3002\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u672c\u5c31\u9971\u53d7\u51b2\u7a81\u548c\u957f\u671f\u9965\u997f\u56f0\u6270\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u4e2d\u7b49\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u6bc1\u706d\u6027\u6253\u51fb\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u7684\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u5b8c\u5168\u4f9d\u8d56\u964d\u96e8\uff0c\u7272\u755c\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u800c\u5bb6\u5ead\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u6062\u590d\u7684\u4f59\u5730\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u8d85\u8fc780%\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c06\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u548c\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u3002\u201c\u519c\u6c11\u53ef\u80fd\u5148\u662f\u635f\u5931\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u662f\u7272\u755c\uff0c\u6700\u7ec8\u5931\u53bb\u5168\u90e8\u751f\u8ba1\uff0c\u201d\u963f\u5c14\u74e6-\u8d1d\u5c14\u7279\u5170\u8bf4\u9053\u3002\u201c\u591a\u91cd\u5371\u673a\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u8fde\u9501\u53cd\u5e94\u5df2\u7ecf\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u5c3d\u65e9\u91c7\u53d6\u884c\u52a8\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8428\u8d6b\u52d2\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u72b6\u51b5\u5df2\u8fde\u7eed\u4e94\u5e74\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u51b2\u7a81\u6301\u7eed\u5bfc\u81f4\u6c11\u4f17\u6d41\u79bb\u5931\u6240\uff0c\u5e76\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u5f31\u52bf\u7fa4\u4f53\u83b7\u5f97\u63f4\u52a9\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5730\u56fe\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u4e00\u6761\u5e7f\u9614\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u5e72\u65f1\u5e26\u4ece\u585e\u5185\u52a0\u5c14\u548c\u6bdb\u91cc\u5854\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5357\u90e8\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u79d1\u7279\u8fea\u74e6\u3001\u52a0\u7eb3\u3001\u591a\u54e5\u3001\u8d1d\u5b81\u548c\u5c3c\u65e5\u5229\u4e9a\uff0c\u5e76\u5411\u4e1c\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u57c3\u585e\u4fc4\u6bd4\u4e9a\u548c\u82cf\u4e39\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5728\u5357\u90e8\u975e\u6d32\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4fe1\u53f7\u66f4\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u7ed9\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u591a\u4e16\u7eaa\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u5e72\u65f1\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f46100\u4e07\u4eba\u9700\u8981\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u7272\u755c\u3001\u4f9b\u6c34\u7cfb\u7edf\u548c\u7267\u573a\u4e0d\u582a\u91cd\u8d1f\uff0c\u8d85\u8fc7800\u4e07\u4eba\u9677\u5165\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u8054\u5408\u56fd\u7cae\u519c\u7ec4\u7ec7\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7eb3\u7c73\u6bd4\u4e9a\u548c\u535a\u8328\u74e6\u7eb3\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u53d1\u751f\u519c\u4e1a\u5e72\u65f1\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8d85\u8fc750%\uff0c\u5e72\u65f1\u8303\u56f4\u8fd8\u5c06\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u5b89\u54e5\u62c9\u3001\u8d5e\u6bd4\u4e9a\u3001\u6d25\u5df4\u5e03\u97e6\u3001\u5357\u975e\u4ee5\u53ca\u83ab\u6851\u6bd4\u514b\u548c\u9a6c\u8fbe\u52a0\u65af\u52a0\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u3002\u5728\u755c\u7267\u4e1a\u65e2\u662f\u7cae\u98df\u5b89\u5168\u53c8\u662f\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u5bcc\u57fa\u77f3\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u7267\u573a\u7684\u4e27\u5931\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u8d44\u4ea7\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5728\u00a0\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u548c\u52a0\u52d2\u6bd4\u6d77\u5730\u533a<\/a>, \u5e72\u65f1\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u9965\u997f\u30022015-2016\u5e74\u7684\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6d32\u5e72\u65f1\u8d70\u5eca350\u4e07\u4eba\u9762\u4e34\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u800c\u6d77\u5730\u7684\u6536\u6210\u9510\u51cf\u9ad8\u8fbe70%\uff0c\u77ed\u77ed\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u5185\u7cae\u98df\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u4eba\u53e3\u5c31\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u964d\u96e8\u91cf\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6b63\u5e38\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6982\u7387\u9ad8\u8fbe70%\u3002\u5e72\u65f1\u8d70\u5eca\u6cbf\u7ebf\u3001\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u3001\u59d4\u5185\u745e\u62c9\u4ee5\u53ca\u53e4\u5df4\u3001\u591a\u7c73\u5c3c\u52a0\u5171\u548c\u56fd\u548c\u6d77\u5730\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u5e72\u65f1\u98ce\u9669\u6700\u9ad8\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\uff0c\u98ce\u9669\u5df2\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u573a\u3002\u5384\u5c14\u5c3c\u8bfa\u73b0\u8c61\u53ef\u80fd\u524a\u5f31\u5370\u5ea6\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u533a\u7684\u590f\u5b63\u5b63\u98ce\uff0c\u4f7f\u6c34\u7a3b\u548c\u7389\u7c73\u7b49\u96e8\u517b\u4f5c\u7269\u5728\u5173\u952e\u751f\u957f\u5b63\u9762\u4e34\u538b\u529b\u30022015\u5e74\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\u7684\u7389\u7c73\u548c\u6c34\u7a3b\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u63a8\u9ad8\u4e86\u5173\u952e\u7cae\u98df\u4f5c\u7269\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u5e72\u65f1\u98ce\u9669\u4ece\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u548c\u5370\u5ea6\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u7f05\u7538\u3001\u6cf0\u56fd\u3001\u67ec\u57d4\u5be8\u548c\u8d8a\u5357\uff0c\u5e76\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u5411\u4e1c\u8513\u5ef6\u81f3\u83f2\u5f8b\u5bbe\u3001\u5370\u5ea6\u5c3c\u897f\u4e9a\u548c\u4e1c\u5e1d\u6c76\u7b49\u5730\u3002.<\/p>\n

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\u884c\u52a8\u5730\u56fe<\/h2>\n

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FAO experts map where crops and pasturelands are most vulnerable to 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