{"id":135027,"date":"2026-07-08T12:54:38","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T16:54:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=135027"},"modified":"2026-07-08T12:54:38","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T16:54:38","slug":"fertilizer-cost-pressures-shift-from-logistics-to-inputs-as-agribusinesses-brace-for-next-supply-chain-challenge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/zh\/plant-health\/npk\/fertilizer-cost-pressures-shift-from-logistics-to-inputs-as-agribusinesses-brace-for-next-supply-chain-challenge\/","title":{"rendered":"\u968f\u7740\u519c\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u4e3a\u8fce\u63a5\u4e0b\u4e00\u8f6e\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u6311\u6218\u505a\u597d\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u5316\u80a5\u6210\u672c\u538b\u529b\u6b63\u4ece\u7269\u6d41\u8f6c\u5411\u6295\u5165\u54c1\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u867d\u7136\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u4e0e\u8fd0\u8f93\u548c\u7269\u6d41\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4f46\u5316\u80a5\u5e02\u573a\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee3\u8868\u519c\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u5927\u6210\u672c\u6311\u6218\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u725b\u6d25\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u9884\u6d4b\u5316\u80a5\u4ef7\u683c<\/a> could climb more than 30% this year as geopolitical tensions and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to pressure global supply. The firm’s report also projects urea prices are expected to rise even faster.<\/p>\n

“However, the impact across countries and crops will vary while historically low fertilizer affordability, as measured by the grains-to-fertilizer price ratio, will result in a bigger impact on the agriculture sector than otherwise in terms of yields and margins,” wrote Lead Economist Kiran Ahmed in the firm’s latest outlook.<\/p>\n

\u80a5\u6599\u534f\u4f1a (TFI)<\/a> \u4e5f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u62c5\u5fe7\u3002TFI\u603b\u88c1\u517c\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u79d1\u91cc\u00b7\u7f57\u68ee\u5e03\u65bd\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u79cd\u690d\u6237\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u5168\u7403\u5316\u80a5\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u56fd\u9645\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u5bf9\u56fd\u5185\u5316\u80a5\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u65e5\u76ca\u52a0\u5267\u3002.<\/p>\n

“They need transparency. They need to understand how global fertilizer supply and demand works, and why it’s impacting their price in Illinois,” Rosenbusch said, \u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u300a\u5168\u7403\u519c\u4e1a\u5546\u4e1a\u62a5\u544a\u300b\u4e2d\u3002.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u548c\u5206\u9500\u5546\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u5728\u540e\u9762\u3002.<\/p>\n

“The fertilizer piece is the next hit,” said Frank Kenney, Vice President of Go-to-Market Strategy and Enablement at \u514b\u83b1\u5965<\/a>. “Many of the larger agricultural companies had already locked in their 2026 fertilizer costs before this latest spike moved through the market.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

That purchasing lag creates a delayed risk that could extend well into the next 12 to 18 months. Because fertilizer is often purchased months before planting, supply disruptions can continue affecting growers and consumers long after geopolitical events appear to stabilize. “The price was already paid somewhere in the chain,” Kenney said. “Someone must carry it.”<\/p>\n

\u5927\u578b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u3001\u5408\u4f5c\u793e\u548c\u519c\u573a\u901a\u5e38\u62e5\u6709\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u91c7\u8d2d\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u51b2\u5316\u80a5\u6210\u672c\u6216\u63d0\u524d\u6570\u6708\u9884\u8ba2\u5e93\u5b58\u3002\u800c\u5c0f\u578b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u548c\u72ec\u7acb\u79cd\u690d\u6237\u7684\u7075\u6d3b\u6027\u5219\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002.<\/p>\n

“When fertilizer moves from $350 or $400 a ton to $600, $900 or more, the smaller guys get hit hardest,” Kenney said. “Agricultural retailers and distributors will be dealing with customers that have very different levels of financial flexibility.”<\/p>\n

\u91c7\u8d2d\u6210\u4e3a\u7ade\u4e89\u4f18\u52bf<\/h2>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u6c2e\u80a5\u548c\u78f7\u80a5\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u5168\u7403\u751f\u4ea7\u533a\u57df\u548c\u8fd0\u8f93\u8def\u7ebf\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u533a\u57df\u548c\u8def\u7ebf\u53c8\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6c2e\u80a5\u548c\u78f7\u80a5\u4ecd\u7136\u7279\u522b\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\u3002.<\/p>\n

“Half of the sulfur traded in the world comes through the Strait (of Hormuz),” said Rosenbusch, noting sulfur is a key raw material used to manufacture phosphate fertilizers such as MAP and DAP.<\/p>\n

\u80af\u5c3c\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4ec5\u662f\u4ef7\u683c\u95ee\u9898\u3002.<\/p>\n

“It becomes a question of how much supply is available, when it can move, who has already locked it in, and who is left trying to buy closer to the season,\u201d Kenney says.<\/p>\n

Kenney\u5efa\u8bae\uff0c\u4e0e\u5176\u4ec5\u4ec5\u5173\u6ce8\u5316\u80a5\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u8be5\u5728\u91c7\u8d2d\u51b3\u7b56\u53d7\u5230\u5e02\u573a\u6761\u4ef6\u9650\u5236\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u66f4\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u4e86\u89e3\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u7684\u627f\u8bfa\u3001\u53d1\u8d27\u65f6\u95f4\u3001\u533a\u57df\u5e93\u5b58\u548c\u66ff\u4ee3\u91c7\u8d2d\u65b9\u6848\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdc\u4e0d\u6b62\u5316\u80a5<\/h2>\n

\u5316\u80a5\u5e02\u573a\u53ea\u662f\u66f4\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4f53\u7cfb\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u73af\u8282\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u80af\u5c3c\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u71c3\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u3001\u8d27\u8fd0\u91cf\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8fd0\u8f93\u6210\u672c\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f9d\u8d56\u51b7\u85cf\u8fd0\u8f93\u7684\u65b0\u9c9c\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002.<\/p>\n

“Those costs work their way into what gets planted and what gets passed through,” Kenney says.<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u89c1\u6027\u53d8\u5f97\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981<\/h2>\n

\u7ecf\u8fc7\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e2d\u65ad\uff0c\u80af\u5c3c\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u5e94\u8be5\u51cf\u5c11\u6536\u96c6\u66f4\u591a\u6570\u636e\u7684\u7cbe\u529b\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u5173\u6ce8\u5982\u4f55\u5c06\u4ed6\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u62e5\u6709\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5efa\u8bae\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u5316\u80a5\u4ef7\u683c\u3001\u71c3\u6cb9\u6210\u672c\u3001\u8d27\u8fd0\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u627f\u8bfa\u3001\u53d1\u8d27\u5ef6\u8fdf\u3001\u5e93\u5b58\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u8ba2\u5355\u4ee5\u53ca\u533a\u57df\u4ea7\u54c1\u4f9b\u5e94\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u81ea\u52a8\u5316\u7b49\u6280\u672f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4f01\u4e1a\u66f4\u65e9\u5730\u8bc6\u522b\u5404\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e2d\u65ad\u6f14\u53d8\u4e3a\u8fd0\u8425\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u524d\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u5bf9\u5e93\u5b58\u3001\u8fd0\u8f93\u3001\u5ba2\u6237\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002.<\/p>\n

“The organizations that can connect those dots and respond early will be in a much better position to manage through whatever comes next,” he says.<\/p>\n

\u521b\u65b0\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u957f\u671f\u4f18\u5148\u4e8b\u9879<\/h2>\n

\u5728\u884c\u4e1a\u52aa\u529b\u5e94\u5bf9\u773c\u524d\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5316\u80a5\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u4e5f\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u521b\u65b0\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u63d0\u9ad8\u517b\u5206\u5229\u7528\u6548\u7387\u548c\u957f\u671f\u97e7\u6027\u3002.<\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u56fd\u9645\u80a5\u6599\u534f\u4f1a\uff08IFA\uff09\u521b\u65b0\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86 \u80a5\u6599\u521b\u65b0\u91ca\u653e\uff1a\u50ac\u5316\u690d\u7269\u8425\u517b\u9886\u57df\u7684\u53d8\u9769\u6027\u884c\u52a8<\/em><\/a>, introducing what it describes as the industry’s first standardized Fertilizer Industry Innovation Benchmark. The benchmark enables organizations to measure their innovation performance against verified industry averages and track progress over time.<\/p>\n

“Advances in plant nutrition have the potential to deliver outsized benefits \u2014 from improving nutrient use efficiency and climate performance to building more resilient, nutritious food systems,” said IFA CEO and Director General Alzbeta Klein. “This report equips the industry with the data and insight needed to make informed decisions and accelerate action.”<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6295\u5165\u6210\u672c\u3001\u53d7\u9650\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u505a\u51c6\u5907\uff1b\u4f46\u4ece\u957f\u8fdc\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u6b63\u5728\u6295\u8d44\u4e8e\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\u3001\u589e\u5f3a\u97e7\u6027\u5e76\u5e2e\u52a9\u79cd\u690d\u8005\u7528\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u6295\u5165\u751f\u4ea7\u66f4\u591a\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u6280\u672f\u548c\u521b\u65b0\u3002.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rising fertilizer costs, supply disruptions, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping procurement strategies, challenging margins, and testing agribusiness resilience worldwide.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1477,"featured_media":79365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1917,1885,23],"tags":[617],"class_list":["post-135027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-abg-update-feature","category-industry-insights","category-npk","tag-fertilizer-2"],"yoast_head":"\nFertilizer Cost Pressures Shift from Logistics to Inputs as 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