{"id":28657,"date":"2011-04-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-04-01T04:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.farmchemicalsinternational.com\/2011\/04\/01\/commodities-the-upside\/"},"modified":"2019-09-16T13:41:25","modified_gmt":"2019-09-16T17:41:25","slug":"commodities-the-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/zh\/industry-news\/commodities-the-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\uff1a\u4e0a\u6da8"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\u7ee7\u7eed\u6291\u5236\u5168\u7403\u7cae\u98df\u4f9b\u5e94\u3002\u968f\u7740\u519c\u6c11\u4e89\u5148\u6050\u540e\u5730\u8865\u5145\u50a8\u5907\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u672a\u80fd\u4ee5\u8db3\u591f\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6ee1\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u968f\u7740\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u90fd\u5728\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u201d\u5546\u54c1\u4e13\u5bb6\u827e\u4f26\u00b7\u514b\u52aa\u514b\u66fc (Alan Knuckman) \u8bf4\uff0c <a href=\"http:\/\/www.agorafinancial.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u58f0\u7f51\u91d1\u878d<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u8ba9\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c06\u6765\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"subhead\"><strong>\u25a0 \u7389\u7c73<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u4e2d\u4e1c\u52a8\u8361\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u6cb9\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\u540e\uff0c\u7389\u7c73\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002 3 \u6708\u521d\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u81ea 2008 \u5e74\u5e95\u4ee5\u6765\u9996\u6b21\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 $106\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u7389\u7c73\u50a8\u5907\u964d\u81f3\u4e09\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u79cd\u690d\u8005\u672a\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u770b\u770b\u8fc7\u53bb\u56db\u4e94\u5e74\u7684\u4e59\u9187\u751f\u4ea7\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u539f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u751f\u7269\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u201d\u514b\u52aa\u514b\u66fc\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7684\u7389\u7c73\u79cd\u690d\u9762\u79ef\u4f30\u8ba1\u4ece\u53bb\u5e74\u7684 270 \u4e07\u516c\u9877\u589e\u52a0 18.5% \u81f3 320 \u4e07\u516c\u9877\u3002\u4ece 2010 \u5e74 12 \u6708\u5230 2011 \u5e74\u521d\u5e72\u65f1\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u8be5\u5730\u533a\u540e\uff0c\u964d\u96e8\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u4e86\u8be5\u56fd\u3002\u964d\u96e8\u53ef\u80fd\u6765\u5f97\u592a\u665a\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u5b8c\u5168\u633d\u6551\u7389\u7c73\u4f5c\u7269\uff0c\u636e <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usda.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7389\u7c73\u51fa\u53e3\u56fd\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u519c\u6c11\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u751f\u4ea7\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684 1373 \u4e07\u84b2\u5f0f\u8033\u7389\u7c73\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u989d\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u6ee1\u8db3\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u636e\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u5357\u975e\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u56fd\u5bb6\/\u5730\u533a\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u6b63\u5728\u8f6c\u5411\u5927\u8c46\u7b49\u5176\u4ed6\u4f5c\u7269\uff0c\u4ee5\u8282\u7701\u751f\u4ea7\u6210\u672c\u5e76\u5229\u7528\u5927\u8c46\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u9700\u6c42\u548c\u5b9a\u4ef7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7389\u7c73\u521b\u4e0b\u4e24\u5e74\u534a\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5373\u5c06\u8fdb\u5165\u751f\u957f\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u201d\u514b\u52aa\u514b\u66fc\u8bf4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8c37\u7269\u6536\u83b7\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7389\u7c73\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7ea6 13%\u3002\u8be5\u90e8\u95e8\u8fd8\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u9700\u8981\u4e24\u5e74\u591a\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u6765\u8865\u5145\u5e93\u5b58\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"subhead\">\u25a0 \u68c9\u82b1<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u68c9\u82b1\u4ea7\u91cf\u9884\u4f30\u4ece 1.155 \u4ebf\u5305\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f3 1.153 \u4ebf\u5305\u3002\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4ea7\u91cf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6210\u672c\u5bfc\u81f4\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e3a\u670d\u88c5\u652f\u4ed8\u66f4\u591a\u8d39\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u5904\u4e8e\u5386\u53f2\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u975e\u6d32\u7684\u519c\u6c11\u5df2\u7ecf\u6062\u590d\u79cd\u690d\u68c9\u82b1\u3002\u5728\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a\uff0c\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u7ffb\u4e86\u4e00\u756a\uff0c\u4ece 23,000 \u5305\u589e\u81f3 49,000 \u5305\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u4ecd\u7136\u8d85\u8fc7\u751f\u4ea7\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u4ef7\u683c\u51b2\u51fb\u7684\u6f5c\u529b\u603b\u662f\u5bf9\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u957f\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u201d\u514b\u52aa\u514b\u66fc\u8bf4\u3002 \u201c\u4f60\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u4ec5\u62e8\u52a8\u5f00\u5173\u5c31\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7389\u7c73\u3001\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u53ef\u53ef\u6216\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u68c9\u82b1\u3002\u4f60\u5fc5\u987b\u7b49\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u957f\u5b63\u8282\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4e00\u5207\u987a\u5229\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u68c9\u82b1\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7eba\u7ec7\u5382\u5de5\u8d44\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u751f\u4ea7\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5168\u7403\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u5370\u5ea6\u4ecd\u575a\u6301\u5c06\u68c9\u82b1\u51fa\u53e3\u9650\u5236\u5728 550 \u4e07\u5305\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4e00\u5305\u5370\u5ea6\u68c9\u7b49\u4e8e 170 \u516c\u65a4\uff0c\u6216\u7ea6 374 \u78c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u5f00\u59cb\u5c06\u4e0d\u65ad\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u6210\u672c\u8f6c\u5ac1\u5230\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5c42\u9762\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\u3002\u636e\u6d88\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u79f0\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u9700\u6c42\u65fa\u76db\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u8d8b\u7d27\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u9884\u8ba1\u6210\u672c\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"subhead\">\u25a0 \u5496\u5561<\/p>\n<p>\u5496\u5561\u8c46\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5730\u533a\u6b63\u5728\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u603b\u4f53\u4ea7\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u5496\u5561\u7ec4\u7ec7\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\uff0c2010\/11 \u4f5c\u7269\u5e74\u5ea6\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4ea7\u91cf\u4f30\u8ba1\u5c06\u4ece 2009\/10 \u5b63\u8282\u7684 1.231 \u4ebf\u888b\u589e\u52a0 9.5% \u81f3 1.348 \u4ebf\u888b\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ico.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u9996\u6b21\u4ee3\u5e01\u53d1\u552e<\/a>).\u4e00\u888b\u5927\u7ea6\u7b49\u4e8e 132 \u78c5\uff0c\u6216 60 \u516c\u65a4\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54e5\u4f26\u6bd4\u4e9a\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u5a01\u80c1\u5230\u963f\u62c9\u6bd4\u5361\u5496\u5561\u6811\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u4e0d\u5bfb\u5e38\u7684\u964d\u96e8\u53d1\u751f\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b63\u8282\u7684\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u5496\u5561\u6811\u5f00\u59cb\u5f00\u82b1\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5404\u79cd\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6811\u6728\u518d\u6b21\u5f00\u82b1\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u5728 2011 \u5e74\u521d\u7a33\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7531\u4e8e\u5e72\u65f1\uff0c\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a\u7684\u5496\u5561\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u6536\u6210\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a\u519c\u6c11\u6b63\u5728\u8f6c\u5411\u5496\u5561\u8c46\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2011 \u5e74\u521d\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4f5c\u7269\u56e0\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u548c\u7531\u4fb5\u88ad\u6811\u7684\u771f\u83cc\u5f15\u8d77\u7684\u5496\u5561\u6d46\u679c\u75c5\u800c\u6bc1\u4e8e\u4e00\u65e6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u5728 3 \u6708\u81f3 5 \u6708\u7684\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u671f\u95f4\uff08\u8fd9\u5bf9\u80af\u5c3c\u4e9a\u7684\u519c\u4e1a\u793e\u533a\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff09\u5e72\u65f1\u5c11\u96e8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5496\u5561\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c06\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u636e\u79f0\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5496\u5561\u751f\u4ea7\u56fd\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5230 2012 \u5e74\u5c06\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5496\u5561\u6d88\u8d39\u56fd <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abic.com.br\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">ABIC<\/a>\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u5496\u5561\u884c\u4e1a\u534f\u4f1a\u3002\u6839\u636e ICO\uff0c\u5bf9 2011\/12 \u5e74\u5df4\u897f\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u5b98\u65b9\u4f30\u8ba1\u8868\u660e\u5c06\u6536\u83b7 4190 \u4e07\u81f3 4470 \u4e07\u888b\u3002\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u8be5\u56fd\u5c06\u6d88\u8017\u5176 2011\/12 \u5e74\u5ea6\u4ea7\u91cf\u7684\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u5373 2029 \u4e07\u888b\u3002<\/p>\n<p class=\"subhead\">\u25a0 \u53ef\u53ef<\/p>\n<p>\u636e\u65b0\u95fb\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e16\u754c 40% \u53ef\u53ef\u8c46\u7684\u79d1\u7279\u8fea\u74e6\u52a8\u8361\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0c\u53ef\u53ef\u4ef7\u683c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u521b\u4e0b 32 \u5e74\u6765\u7684\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u53ef\u53ef\u662f 2010 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