{"id":57063,"date":"2016-01-26T12:01:40","date_gmt":"2016-01-26T17:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=57063"},"modified":"2016-01-26T13:51:27","modified_gmt":"2016-01-26T18:51:27","slug":"global-economies-adjust-to-lower-commodity-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/zh\/agrochemicals\/global-economies-adjust-to-lower-commodity-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8c03\u6574\u4ee5\u9002\u5e94\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u519c\u4e1a \u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u90fd\u611f\u53d7\u5230\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u884c\u4e1a\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002\u6839\u636e\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7 (IMF) \u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1 2015 \u5e74\u5168\u7403 GDP \u5c06\u4ece 2014 \u5e74\u7684 3.4% \u653e\u7f13\u81f3 3.1%\u3002
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\n\u201c\u4eba\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u519c\u4e1a\u6b63\u9677\u5165\u5168\u7403\u5546\u54c1\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u201d\u6295\u8d44\u7ecf\u7406\u548c\u54a8\u8be2\u516c\u53f8 MacroGain Partners \u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u8d1f\u8d23\u4eba Jim Budzynski \u8bf4\u3002 \u201c\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u5927\u578b\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u90fd\u5728\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5df4\u897f\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5176\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u56fd\u5bb6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u7ba1\u7406\u5e02\u573a\u65e0\u5173\u3002\u5b83\u5173\u4e4e\u4e3a GDP\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8ba1\u5212\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u6d3b\u529b\u521b\u9020\u6536\u5165\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u9762\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f4e\u8ff7\u548c\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4ecd\u6709\u4eba\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u9500\u91cf\u6765\u5f25\u8865\u5dee\u8ddd\u3002\u201d
\n\u5728\u5927\u8870\u9000\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u826f\u597d\u7684\u589e\u957f\u548c\u968f\u4e4b\u800c\u6765\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u800c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5219\u6b65\u5c65\u8e52\u8dda\u3002\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u60c5\u51b5\u6070\u6070\u76f8\u53cd\u3002\u65b0\u5174\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u6b65\u5c65\u8e52\u8dda\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u8868\u73b0\u8fd8\u7b97\u4e0d\u9519\u3002\u4f46\u53d1\u8fbe\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5438\u6536\u672c\u5e94\u7531\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bb6\u5438\u6536\u7684\u8fc7\u5269\u5546\u54c1\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

8% \u2014 \u81ea 2 \u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u5168\u7403\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u6307\u6570\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002
\n\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u9884\u8ba1 2016 \u5e74\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u8d70\u8f6f\u3002\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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\n\u5f88\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u81ea 2008 \u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u56e4\u79ef\u3001\u52a8\u8361\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u3001\u53bb\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u7834\u706d\u7684\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u4ee5\u53ca\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4fe1\u5fc3\u7684\u51cf\u5f31\uff0c\u90fd\u8ba9\u5168\u7403\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u611f\u5230\u4e0d\u5b89\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd GDP \u589e\u957f\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3 6.8%\uff0c2016 \u5e74\u5c06\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3 6.3%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5bf9\u6295\u5165\u9500\u552e\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong>
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\nKliethermes \u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u8015\u4f5c\u7269\u519c\u6c11\uff0c\u4ed6\u8bf4\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u884c\u52a8\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c06\u5bfb\u6c42\u5728\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u53cd\u52a8\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5148\u53d1\u5236\u4eba\u5730\u5904\u7406\u5bb3\u866b\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u5fc3\u6001\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u627c\u6740\u65b0\u5174\u6280\u672f\u548c\u975e\u5173\u952e\u6295\u5165\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5fae\u91cf\u8425\u517b\u7d20\u548c\u751f\u7269\u9632\u6cbb\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002\u968f\u610f\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6740\u83cc\u5242\u5904\u7406\u4e5f\u5904\u4e8e\u5371\u9669\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u519c\u6c11\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7b49\u5230\u5bb3\u866b\u4fa6\u5bdf\u8bc1\u660e\u9700\u8981\u5b83\u4eec\u65f6\u624d\u4f7f\u7528\u3002
\n\u65bd\u80a5\u91cf\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u8fd9\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u8bb8\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5168\u7403\u5316\u80a5\u4ef7\u683c\u6b63\u5728\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u519c\u6c11\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u7b49\u7740\u770b\u4ef7\u683c\u4f1a\u8dcc\u5230\u591a\u4f4e\u3002 NPK \u4ef7\u503c\u94fe\u4e0a\u5806\u6ee1\u4e86\u9ad8\u4ef7\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7b49\u5f85\u6e38\u620f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u7ec8\u9500\u552e\u548c\u6d88\u8d39\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ea7\u91cf\u5e76\u672a\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u7ed9\u4ef7\u683c\u5e26\u6765\u4e86\u989d\u5916\u7684\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u519c\u6c11\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4ece\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u571f\u58e4\u4e2d\u6316\u6398\u517b\u5206\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u65b0\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7528\u4e8e\u78f7 (P) \u548c\u94be (K)\u3002
\nKliethermes \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6d88\u606f\u6765\u6e90\u79f0\uff0c\u79cd\u5b50\u9009\u62e9\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u65f6\u4ee3\u9996\u6b21\u53d7\u5230\u8003\u9a8c\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u519c\u6c11\u4e0d\u4f1a\u5b8c\u5168\u653e\u5f03\u9886\u5148\u7684\u8f6c\u57fa\u56e0\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u9009\u62e9\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\u6027\u72b6\u66f4\u52a0\u6311\u5254\uff0c\u4ee5\u6700\u5927\u9650\u5ea6\u5730\u964d\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u548c\u6280\u672f\u8d39\u7528\u3002\u79cd\u5b50\u5904\u7406\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u519c\u6c11\u5e0c\u671b\u8282\u7701\u9884\u9632\u6280\u672f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u51fa\u73b0\u866b\u5bb3\u538b\u529b\u65f6\u8fdb\u884c\u4fa6\u5bdf\u548c\u5e94\u5bf9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n

1.21\u4ebf\u2014\u20142015\/16\u751f\u957f\u5b63\u5168\u7403\u5927\u8c46\u79cd\u690d\u9762\u79ef\uff0c\u00a0<\/span>\u6bd4\u53bb\u5e74\u589e\u52a0 2%\uff0c\u6bd4 2013\/14 \u751f\u957f\u5b63\u589e\u52a0 7%\u3002\u00a0<\/span>\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u5bf9\u519c\u4ea7\u54c1\u9020\u6210\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u3002\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

2016\u5e74\u56e0\u7d20<\/strong>
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\n\u201c\u6295\u5165\u540e\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u751f\u4ea7\u5546\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u7acb\u5373\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8d1f\u5229\u6da6\u7387\u5e76\u5728\u6625\u5b63\u51cf\u5c11\u64ad\u79cd\u9762\u79ef\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u78b0\u5de7\u9047\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u50cf\u6837\u7684\u6625\u5b63\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u660e\u5e74\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u5e38\u5f3a\u52b2\u7684\u64ad\u79cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u4f4e\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c\u201dKliethermes \u8bf4\uff0c\u5e76\u8865\u5145\u8bf4\u5357\u534a\u7403\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c06\u5728 2016 \u5e74\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\u3002
\n\u622a\u81f3\u53d1\u7a3f\u65f6\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u519c\u4e1a\u90e8 FAS \u62a5\u544a 2015\/16 \u5e74\u5ea6\u5168\u7403\u5927\u8c46\u79cd\u690d\u9762\u79ef\u589e\u52a0\u81f3 1.21 \u4ebf\u516c\u9877\uff0c\u6bd4\u4eca\u5e74\u589e\u52a0 2%\uff0c\u6bd4 2013\/14 \u5e74\u5ea6\u7684 1.13 \u4ebf\u516c\u9877\u589e\u52a0 7%\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5927\u8c46\u5355\u4ea7\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4e0e 2014\/15 \u5e74\u5ea6\u6301\u5e73\u3002\u5c0f\u9ea6\u548c\u6cb9\u7c7d\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u9884\u8ba1\u5728 2015\/16 \u79cd\u690d\u5b63\u4e5f\u5c06\u6500\u5347\u3002\u9884\u8ba1\u8c37\u7269\u603b\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c06\u56de\u843d\u81f3 2013\/14 \u5e74\u5ea6\u7ea6 24.728 \u4ebf\u5428\u7684\u4ea7\u91cf\u6c34\u5e73\u3002
\n\u7ee7\u53bb\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u4ea7\u91cf\u521b\u4e0b 565 \u4e07\u5428\u7684\u7eaa\u5f55\u540e\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u7389\u7c73\u79cd\u690d\u9762\u79ef\u548c\u4ea7\u91cf\u5c06\u56de\u843d\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u9650\u5236\u751f\u4ea7\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u573a\u3002
\n\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u4ea7\u91cf\u5bfc\u81f4\u5168\u7403\u5e93\u5b58\u91cf\u5f3a\u52b2\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u9664\u5927\u7c73\u5916\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u5546\u54c1\u4f5c\u7269\u7684\u5e93\u5b58\u91cf\u90fd\u5c06\u7ee7\u7eed\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5e93\u5b58\u589e\u52a0\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u8fd9\u5c06\u963b\u6b62\u4ef7\u683c\u53cd\u5f39\u5e76\u7ed9\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u6295\u5165\u4f7f\u7528\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u5927\u538b\u529b\u3002
\n\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u5e93\u5b58\u4f7f\u7528\u7387\u6b63\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5e93\u5b58\u66f4\u5927\uff1b\u5f53\u4f60\u7ee7\u7eed\u4fdd\u6301\u89c4\u6a21\u65f6\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u5347\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c31\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u201d\u666e\u6e21\u5927\u5b66\uff08\u7f8e\u56fd\u5370\u7b2c\u5b89\u7eb3\u5dde\uff09\u519c\u4e1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u7279\u8058\u6559\u6388 Michael Boehlje \u535a\u58eb\u8bf4\uff0c\u201c\u6240\u4ee5\u671f\u8d27\u57fa\u672c\u6301\u5e73\uff0c\u7565\u6709\u4e0a\u6da82016 \u5e74\u548c 2017 \u5e74\u7684\u7389\u7c73\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n

\u6536\u76ca\u7ba1\u7406<\/strong>
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\n\u201c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u519c\u6c11\u548c\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u4ee5\u6bcf\u84b2\u5f0f\u8033\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6bcf\u82f1\u4ea9\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u8ba8\u8bba\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6210\u672c\u7ed3\u6784\u5c06\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u5fc5\u987b\u5e2e\u52a9\u519c\u6c11\u4e86\u89e3\u51cf\u5c11\u7279\u5b9a\u6295\u5165\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ea7\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u201dBoehlje \u8bf4\u3002 \u201c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u51cf\u5c11\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u4f60\u6bcf\u82f1\u4ea9\u7684\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u4ea7\u91cf\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4f60\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u6bcf\u84b2\u5f0f\u8033\u7684\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u201d
\n\u4f46\u65e0\u8bba\u4ef7\u503c\u4e3b\u5f20\u8868\u8fbe\u5f97\u591a\u4e48\u597d\uff0c\u4f5c\u7269\u4fdd\u62a4\u548c\u7c7b\u4f3c\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u4fb5\u8680\u3002
\n\u201c\u519c\u4f5c\u7269\u5316\u5b66\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u968f\u7740\u519c\u6c11\u7684\u603b\u4f53\u7ecf\u6d4e\u72b6\u51b5\u800c\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4ef7\u683c\u5177\u6709\u7c98\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7acb\u5373\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u201dMacroGain \u7684 Budzynski \u8bf4\u3002 \u201c\u4f46\u6700\u7ec8\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u519c\u6c11\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u5883\u5730\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u5c06\u65e0\u6cd5\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e09\u5230\u56db\u5e74\u5185\u63d0\u53d6\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u5230\u56db\u5e74\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u4fdd\u8d39\u5e74\u3002\u201d
\nBudzynski \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c06\u519c\u4e1a\u7684\u5f3a\u52b2\u7e41\u8363\u65f6\u671f\u4e0e\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u519c\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u5931\u53bb\u5174\u8da3\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u76f8\u534f\u8c03\uff0c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u548c\u4ea7\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u65e9\u8be5\u8fdb\u884c\u3002
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Global GDP is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2015\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/zh\/agrochemicals\/global-economies-adjust-to-lower-commodity-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_CN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Economies Adjust to Lower Commodity Prices - AgriBusiness Global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Agriculture Economies around the world are feeling the drag of faltering commodity prices in all sectors. 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