{"id":78192,"date":"2025-01-06T08:51:13","date_gmt":"2025-01-06T13:51:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/?p=78192"},"modified":"2025-01-19T16:40:25","modified_gmt":"2025-01-19T21:40:25","slug":"swans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.agribusinessglobal.com\/zh\/markets\/swans\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 \u5e74\u201c\u9ed1\u5929\u9e45\u201d\uff1a\u519c\u4e1a\u7efc\u5408\u4f01\u4e1a\u9762\u4e34\u9006\u98ce\u3001\u9002\u5e94\u548c\u51c6\u5907\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

As another new year approaches, we are sharing our predictions for the 2025 Agribusiness Black Swans \u2014 major events having the most impact in the coming year \u2014 along with our suggestions for how to prepare and adapt as your team heads into 2025. Some of the key watchouts for 2025 have intensified, new ones have developed, and others have de-escalated. Business leaders and owners who prepare and adapt their business models will likely do well in the marketplace<\/span><\/p>\n

Black Swan 1: Agroindustry Stagflation Continues in 2025<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Stagflation means a combination of inflation and economic stagnation. In point of fact, expect commodity prices to be relatively flat overall. Meanwhile, price patterns suggest a potential for multiple years of lower farm income<\/span> unless input costs, interest rates, land prices, etc. readjust dramatically, or else weather events cause shortages<\/span>. While we believe the marketplace and competition are likely to make these adjustments, overproduction of grains continues, and the supply of inventory (the stocks-in-use ratio) has remained slightly higher than 2023. At the same time there have been declines in input costs, with prices for seeds and pesticides stabilizing while fertilizer and fuel are the likeliest to decline.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Questions<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How long will the input industry continue to finance Brazilian growers with long payment terms? <\/span><\/b>Brazil producers have taken the global lead in exports for corn and soybeans. Will they continue to target more market share, perhaps by aligning with the other BRICS countries, especially China? Most suppliers are struggling with profitability, and the Brazilian model is causing major headaches.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Will the cost of capital continue?<\/span><\/b> There\u2019s a bigger picture here that further dampens the ag sector. With U.S. national debt remaining at an all-time high and interest rates showing few signs of coming down significantly, the U.S. federal government is crowding out the private sector in the pursuit of spending and borrowing. This combined with the continued higher cost of money creates a difficult environment for ag businesses looking to make capital investments. This is especially true for small business owners as producers.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Will the economic outlook be recovery or more of the same?<\/span><\/b> Late-year forecasts show inflation softening and economic forecasts revised upwards. For instance, one Citibank estimate for 2024 global GDP growth was 2.1% in March but up to 2.5% by September. The Euro Area went from a forecast of 0.3% to 0.7%. For the U.S. it was 1.4% to 2.2%. Look ahead to the 2025 forecast, however, and global GDP growth is estimated to stay at 2.5% while the U.S. is forecast to drop to 1.8%. It would be tempting to assume near-term gains will continue into 2025, but that may not happen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Black Swan 2: China Unraveling Continues into 2025<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

It\u2019s clear the China model of agrochemical production is not working. Globally there is oversupply due in no small part to China\u2019s overcapacity in production. This has resulted in inexpensive products on the global market with few adding more value<\/span>, and margins <\/span>for suppliers and distribution eroding in absolute currency significantly, back to 2022 levels, which is putting pressure on supplier margins and profitability. For producers globally, lower chemical input prices of course is positive.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Questions<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How long will the Chinese government and producer industry subsidize the global crop protection market?<\/span><\/b> The Chinese government\u2019s attempt to stimulate the economy has been challenging in terms of GDP growth and consumer spending. Putting more steel and concrete in place will only result in more oversupply. Western economies and politicians are also very conscious of the negative effects on their GDP growth. Look for more tariffs and trade restrictions as Chinese exports invade and negatively affect their economies.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Investment in China: is it real or is it not?<\/span><\/b> Last year we saw China unraveling. Now the Chinese stock market has become attractive. From early September to early October 2024, stocks were up roughly 40%. But is it ephemeral? Since the beginning of 1993, the Chinese stock market is relatively flat, so buyer beware. With its size and economy China always seems like a natural investment, but it remains a big risk and could cost hopeful investors a good amount of money.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Black Swan 3: Energy Remains Stable in 2025?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Last year<\/a>, we noted a need to bring energy supply and demand into equilibrium. The issue here really is commodity inventories and growing demand in new markets. Oversupply has led to more stable and somewhat lower prices as well as deflation as described in Black Swan 1.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Questions<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What is the near-term effect if tensions between Iran and Israel intensify?<\/span><\/b> And what effect will this have on the supply chain? Does one go from just-in-time delivery to holding more inventory? It\u2019s a financial risky endeavor either way, but certainly management sourcing will need to look at de-risking one\u2019s portfolio.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Black Swan 4: Political De-globalization Has Led to Trade Wars and Now Physical War<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

This continues with hostilities in Europe (Russia-Ukraine) and the Middle East. Now the question becomes: Is northeast Asia next, especially North Korea and South Korea, with influence by Russia and possible participation by China and the U.S.? Meanwhile, tensions continue between China and Taiwan.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Question<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What would a major military engagement do to ag input supply, commodity exports, and the supply of microchips for ag technology?<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Black Swan 5: U.S. Inflation and Interest Rates<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

A big key here in the U.S. were elections pitting opposing philosophies on whether to raise taxes and by how much. If taxes go up in 2025, this could well be another brake on the economy that further hurts small businesses. More government spending on defense, social giveaways, and bureaucracy (more nonproductive labor) could lead to an even higher surge of inflation, resulting in higher interest rates.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Key Question<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What effect would inflation and higher interest rates in the U.S. have on global trade?<\/span><\/b> U.S. farmland prices on average have declined this year, though whether this trend continues likely will hinge on how long low profitability for row crop farmers persists. In light of this uncertain environment, many U.S. growers will wait to see what policies will result before making capital investment decisions.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Rest of the 2025 Black Swans<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

The above five Swans we feel will have the biggest impact on agribusiness in the year ahead, but there are others that could have a minor to major impact.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

U.S. Election: Which Approach Will Work Best? <\/span><\/b>Heading into the election, the Trump campaign proposed a return to a supply-side economy via lowered taxes \u2014 would this portend a manufacturing boom? Shorter term, however, proposed tariffs on many sectors showed potential to dampen imports to the U.S. and add cost to the U.S. economy, possibly driving inflation. Meanwhile the Harris campaign proposed increasing taxes, which could inhibit incentives to invest capital; increasing regulation, which could add cost to small businesses; and extending the Green New Deal, which would increase the money supply and potentially reignite inflation. Both candidates planned to boost spending and increase the national debt by trillions<\/span>. <\/span><\/b>Now that Trump has won the election, we\u2019ll see whether this approach is better for small agribusiness owners as well as for the U.S. and global economy more generally.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Failure to foresee continuing gains in ag tech.<\/span><\/b> It\u2019s natural to be conservative regarding the real-world impact of ag tech given its spotty history, but being caught flat-footed when real gains are made could also cost money and opportunity. Artificial intelligence, digital agriculture, and ag-tech connectivity continue to be the main drivers to improve farm economics and environmental benefits. For instance, digital agriculture may get a real boost from digital connectivity when suppliers such as <\/span>Emergent Connext<\/span><\/a>, with its nationwide IoT network and data platform for agriculture, rapidly pick up steam in rural America.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Hesitance (or lack of wherewithal) to expand via M&A.<\/span><\/b> Our advice at 2024 mid-year<\/a> was to control operating expenses but also look for expansion opportunities. This continues if interest rates do not come down. Per Citibank, capital pools are growing. Private equity \u201cdry powder,\u201d annualized based on the current run rate, went up in 2024. Cash on corporate balance sheets is ticking upward. Many companies are rationalizing their portfolios, which should bring more available acquisition targets to market. Companies looking to expand should have the wherewithal and will to look at M&A.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Lastly, <\/span>labor shortages, climate volatility, continuing regulatory pressure,<\/span><\/b> and <\/span>technological advancements<\/span><\/b> will continue to play into the success of agribusiness and the agroindustry. These all continue unabated. In fact, they might be called long-term trends, maybe even mega-trends, depending on the extent to which each plays out.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

How to Prepare and Adjust in 2025\u00a0<\/span><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Such is the state of our 2025 Black Swans which, as they did for 2024, signal a need for continuing caution among business owners. What can businesses do to prepare? Here are some suggestions:<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Cost avoidance<\/span><\/b>. Control of operating expenses should be top of mind. And with lending likely to remain tight, the cost of money high, and commodity prices flat, the most prudent act for 2025 likely will be to budget conservatively.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n
    • Look for expansion opportunities <\/span><\/b>\u2014 for instance, asset acquisitions, mergers to improve the cost of business, and investment of new money in growth segments.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • Control cash flow.<\/span><\/b> This is a good time to lower debt and reserve available money for opportunities to invest.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
          \n
        • Embrace mid-term adaptation.<\/span><\/b> Implement smart business models \u2014 specific, measurable, attainable. Anticipating the competition and a need for both flexibility and focus are paramount in times such as these.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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