Croatia Crop Outlook

By Scott C. Lucas|26 April 2006

Croatia’s production is expected to exceed local consumption, but export opportunities are limited unless growers can increase production further. Here is a one-by-one look at the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS) forecasts for each of Croatia’s major crops.

Wheat
2004-05 crop: Trade sources report that the 2004-05 wheat crop was sown on approximately 120,000 hectares (Ha), substantially below the average area of 200,000 Ha, resulting in a smaller wheat crop of around 500,000 metric tons (MT). Farmers experienced a wet growing season with heavy rains during harvest, which resulted in some germination and lessened the overall crop quality.
This crop along with government stocks of approximately 300,000 MT is expected to cover local consumption (750,000-800,000 MT), leaving no surplus for exports.
2005-06 crop: USDA-FAS’s estimates for 2005-06 show the wheat crop rebounding. It is expected to be planted on 200,000 Ha with production in the neighborhood of 840,000 MT. While this is higher than domestic consumption, it is not a large enough surplus to power exports, especially considering the country’s lack of stocks.
Fall weather in Croatia has so far been sunny and warm, leading to successful sowing. Adequate rain and a cold winter followed, which may result in some damage to the crop, as there was no snow cover during the cold months. The Spring has been wet, which has created problems sowing the Spring crop (sown between mid-February and mid-March). The effects of the weather on the final harvest are not yet determinable.

Maize
2004-05 crop: Production in 2004-05 reached 2.8 million MT from between 350,000 and 400,000 Ha. There may be enough extra maize to export to markets such as Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and EU markets such as Austria and Italy.
2005-06 crop: The optimal sowing period for maize in Croatia is in April, but rains have stopped all areas from being sown on time. The total maize area is still expected to reach 400,000 Ha, with production around 2.4 million MT, which would again create enough excess for a small amount of exports.

Barley
2004-05 crop: Sown on approximately 50,000 Ha in 2004-05, barley production was estimated to reach 150,000 MT, forcing the country to import roughly 50,000 MT. Croatia’s barley utilization includes 65,000 to 70,000 MT for malting (brewing), 30,000 MT for feed, 90,000 MT for farm use, and the remainder going to different industries.
2005-06 crop: Spring rains have made barley sowing difficult for farmers, but plantings should finish near the end of April. While this is very late for barley to be planted in Croatia, Spring planting only occupies about 5,000 Ha of the country’s total 50,000 Ha of the crop. If the weather is favorable, total barley yield is expected be around 180,000 MT.