Canada: Grain And Feed Outlook
3 June 2008 Canadian production of barley, corn, and oats is expected to fall by 13% from 2007/08 to 2008/09 as growers shift to more profitable wheat and oilseed crops.
According to the US Dept. of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS), Canada’s total production of barley corn and oats is forecast at 23.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from 2006/2007 production levels of 27.33 MMT. For 2008/2009, wheat production is forecast to jump 24%, from 20.05 MMT to 24.8 MMT. Pea production is forecast to increase significantly in response to high world prices.
For wheat, seeding intentions surveys published at the end of April suggest the wheat area will increase by 16% from last year, and production is expected to increase by almost 25% over year 2007/08, assuming average yields.
Barley seeding intentions released by Statistics Canada in late April suggest that area seeded to barley in 2008/09 will fall despite the Canadian Wheat Board Pool Return Outlook prices making barley one of the more attractive options this spring.
The harvested area is expected to decrease by 15%, but production should still reach 10.2 MMT, down only 7% from last year. Planting intentions for corn suggest 2008/09 production down 15% from last year. The lower supply is expected to result in stocks being drawn down by 22%.
High oat supplies resulting from increase acreage and high yields in 2007/08 as well as competition from revenue generating crops such as canola and flax seed are expected to result in a decrease in area planted to oats in 2008/09. Production is forecast at 3.65 MMT, a 22% decrease from 2007/08.
The area seeded to dry beans for 2008/09 is expected to drop by 24% due to shifts to more attractive options such as peas. Production is forecast at 220,000 MT, down from 277,000 MT in 2007/08.
Dry peas planting intentions show an increase in production to 3.1 MMT for 2008/09.
Lentil production is forecast at 650,000 MT, a 4% decrease from 2007/08.
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