Las actualizaciones de políticas y las inspecciones de protección ambiental más estrictas están conduciendo a una competencia intensificada en el suministro de agroquímicos de China. Esto puede ser una ventaja para los fabricantes con capacidad de producción integrada e instalaciones de protección ambiental calificadas, según un nuevo Informe Rabobank.
Aparte de la recuperación global del mercado de agroquímicos, hay dos impulsores detrás de esta reactivación, según el informe. El primer impulsor son las actualizaciones de la política de gestión. En junio de 2017, el Ministerio de Agricultura presentó la nueva Ley de Plaguicidas junto con cinco reglamentos de apoyo sobre el manejo de plaguicidas, que son los más estrictos jamás vistos.
The second driver is stricter environmental protection inspection. “Environmental protection inspections were extraordinarily strict in 2017, which greatly impacted agrichemical production and AI prices. AI prices have been rising steadily (up 1.6% MOM), while China’s agrochemical price index (CAPI) reached 98.36 in December 2017 (up 32.3% YOY). This is the highest value seen in the last three years.”
According to the report, “The supply tension is hard to change in the short term, given the higher environmental protection policy pressure. We expect agrichemical prices to keep rising at least until Q2 2018, supported by a shortage of raw materials and increasing production costs. On top of that, the new pollutant discharge permit management system and collection of the environmental protection tax will promote the concentration of the agrichemical industry.
“China’s agrichemical industry has entered a period of radical adjustment. The intensified policy pressure and increased levels of inspection will accelerate the reshuffling and consolidation of the industry, both in horizontal integration and up- as well as downstream integration. Manufacturers who have the ability to produce AI and formulation will benefit from this transformation and be able to enhance the strength of continuous production and supply. Backward production capacity will gradually retreat from the market, driven by the increase of environmental protection inspections and standardized administration,” according to Rabobank.