Moroccan Wheat At Record Levels

Stable areas and plentiful rainfall could push Morocco’s grain production to record levels this year, provided that additional showers are recorded during March and April and no significant damage is caused by the seasonal hot dry wind from the east, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS). As it stands, the crop is at least expected to be the best in at least a decade.

Wheat and barley yields are expected to increase throughout Morocco, but most of the increase in production is expected to come from the semi-arid areas where production is usually held in check by the lack of rain. Areas such as Settat, Beni Mellal, and Safi should increase production dramatically compared to past years and boost the country’s overall grain production.

In spite of a late start, significant periodic rains throughout virtually all producing areas is expected to affect overall yields positively. The area recorded this year is about 5% above the 5-year average, but is still about 11% lower than the record area planted in 1996, which combined with good yields, resulted in the record wheat and barley crop of 9.7 million metric tons (MMT). Since then, the area planted to non-durum wheat increased considerably at the expense of durum because of government price supports.

In trade, the Morocco and the US entered into a free trade agreement (FTA) effective January 1, 2006. Under the FTA, the US secured a TRQ for durum of 250,000 MT (to be increased by 10,000 MT each year) and a TRQ for non-durum that will depend on the size of the Moroccan crop. The minimum and a maximum TRQ for non-durum wheat increase each year to reach 0.4 MMT and 1.0 MMT, respectively, in the tenth year of the agreement. If Morocco’s wheat production is as good as expected, the TRQ should be at its minimum level for the second year of the agreement (293,000 MT).

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