A Europa pode revolucionar novamente a produção de fertilizantes e reduzir a dependência do gás.
Europe is well placed to lead a new generation of low-emission fertilizer production, according to a report published today by climate innovation think tank Future Cleantech Architects (FCA). The relatório finds that shifting fertilizer production away from gas and toward electricity-based technologies could strengthen Europe’s industrial resilience, reduce import dependence, while boosting global food security and climate goals.
O relatório “Low-Emission Production Methods for Nitrogen Fertilizer” compares the energy demand, emissions, technological readiness, and economics of three promising alternatives to conventional natural-gas-based production:
- Renewable hydrogen with upgraded Haber-Bosch: mature and ready for large-scale commercialization, but depends on scarce and costly clean hydrogen (in Europe).
- Plasma-based nitrogen fixation: produces nitric acid directly from nitrogen in the air and is approaching first-of-a-kind industrial deployment.
- Electrochemical ammonia synthesis: could produce ammonia directly from nitrogen and water but remains at an earlier research stage.
The report recommends a combination of these three technological pathways, each with its unique advantages. Gas-powered production with carbon capture and storage is not recommended as it requires regulation and a massive increase in storage capacity.
The report recommends advancing all three pathways, recognizing their different technological maturity and needs. It also assesses carbon capture and storage applied to conventional production but does not recommend it as it retains use of natural gas as feedstock, while requiring regulation and a large expansion of the EU’s CO ₂ storage capacity.
“Synesthetic nitrogen fertilizers help sustain crop yields that feed about half the world’s population, yet their production remains heavily exposed to gas and geopolitical shocks,” said Dr. James Lazenby, report author and cleantech analyst at Future Cleantech Architects. “Europe has helped revolutionize fertilizer production before. Today, it has an opportunity to do so again – but the next generation of technologies will only become competitive if clean electricity is abundant and affordable.”
Natural gas can account for up to 90% of the variable cost of ammonia production. Since 2022, high gas prices and supply disruptions have weakened the economics of conventional European fertilizer production. EU output has fallen by around 12%, while imports from regions with cheaper and abundant gas have increased, including Egypt, Russia, and Algeria.
Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers are also responsible for around 2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions, similar to international sectors like aviation and maritime shipping. Around 40% of these emissions arise during production, while approximately 60% occur after fertilizers are applied to fields.
Europe transformed fertilizer innovation in the early 20th century. Today, it hosts more innovators working on emerging low-emission nitrogen production technologies than anywhere else. However, all three alternative technologies depend on access to low-cost, abundant, and clean electricity.
In south-central Sweden, renewable hydrogen with upgraded Haber-Bosch can already fall within the current market-price range for conventional nitrogen fertilizer. Future plasma-based production could also reach that range. In Germany, however, higher electricity costs, grid fees, levies, and taxes keep both routes above current market prices.
The report emphasizes that low-emission production cannot be a standalone solution. A system-level strategy would combine low-emission production with better nutrient management, lower demand where possible, and greater circularity with recovery and reuse of nitrogen.
Future Cleantech Architects is engaging policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers at the EU and beyond to provide supportive policy measures. These include:
- Generate clean, abundant, and affordable electricity;
- CAPEX support tailored to each technology’s maturity;
- OPEX support;
- Create demand for low-emission fertilizer;
- Take a system-level view to lower overall fertilizer emissions.
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