政策更新和更严格的环保检查正在导致中国农化供应的竞争加剧。根据一项新的报告，这对于具有综合生产能力和合格环保设施的制造商来说可能是一个优势 荷兰合作银行报告.
报告称，除了全球农化市场的复苏外，这种复苏背后还有两个驱动因素。第一个驱动因素是管理政策升级。 2017 年 6 月，农业部出台了新的《农药法》以及五项农药管理配套法规，这是有史以来最严格的。
The second driver is stricter environmental protection inspection. “Environmental protection inspections were extraordinarily strict in 2017, which greatly impacted agrichemical production and AI prices. AI prices have been rising steadily (up 1.6% MOM), while China’s agrochemical price index (CAPI) reached 98.36 in December 2017 (up 32.3% YOY). This is the highest value seen in the last three years.”
According to the report, “The supply tension is hard to change in the short term, given the higher environmental protection policy pressure. We expect agrichemical prices to keep rising at least until Q2 2018, supported by a shortage of raw materials and increasing production costs. On top of that, the new pollutant discharge permit management system and collection of the environmental protection tax will promote the concentration of the agrichemical industry.
“China’s agrichemical industry has entered a period of radical adjustment. The intensified policy pressure and increased levels of inspection will accelerate the reshuffling and consolidation of the industry, both in horizontal integration and up- as well as downstream integration. Manufacturers who have the ability to produce AI and formulation will benefit from this transformation and be able to enhance the strength of continuous production and supply. Backward production capacity will gradually retreat from the market, driven by the increase of environmental protection inspections and standardized administration,” according to Rabobank.