2011 年货币调整后，作物保护收入超出预期四倍。问题是：该行业能否在 2012 年再次超越传统智慧？
Total agrochemical sales, including noncrop, reached $51.5 billion, 17% above last year and almost $5 billion above the 2008 record. After 2011’s record sales are adjusted for inflation and currency valuations, the crop protection industry rose 8%, compared to the 2% to 3% compounded annual growth rate predicted by most analysts.
对作物投入的强劲需求和新作物保护技术的更广泛采用帮助该年度销售额达到 $452 亿，与 2010 年相比增长 18%，再次比 2008 年的行业销售额增长近 $50 亿。
除北美自由贸易协定国家外，每个地区都实现了两位数的增长。最显着的增长是在南美洲，那里充沛的降雨增加了病害压力和对大豆杀菌剂的需求，大豆享有优惠的价格并进一步鼓励农民最大限度地提高产量。
“No one really expected Latin America to perform quite the way it did, and a lot of the indicators are still positive because of crop prices, so we expect that to continue to 2012,” Matthew Phillips of Phillips McDougall told Farm Chemicals International.
南美洲也受益于草甘膦价格的稳定，草甘膦是巴西和阿根廷广泛种植抗农达大豆的主要原料。由于需求旺盛和商品价格上涨，非洲大陆的棉花和甘蔗种植面积有所增加。跨国公司报告的第四季度收益将南美洲视为对其植保业务有利的市场，许多公司表示，2012 年初需求旺盛，商品价格强劲，植保产品价格稳定。
2012年能否跟上步伐？
毫无疑问，农业企业的长期基本面依然强劲。越来越多的人寻求更高质量的食物、更自由的市场以及农艺知识和农业技术的转让，这为采用作物投入提供了动力。作物生产技术的扩散是理所当然的。
In the short-term, however, companies are acting a bit cautious, often hoarding cash so they can expand when the global recession begins to taper, analysts say. Currently, the solvency of the Eurozone is hampering the world’s largest crop protection market, which rose 16.6% to $12.3 billion in 2011, according to Phillips McDougall. Some protectionist-leaning policies in BRIC countries and currency fluctuation are adding concern as well.
“I like to use the metaphor of [Christopher] Columbus sailing to the New World: In the long term, the prospects in the ag chemicals area are phenomenal; the ultimate return is going to be extraordinary. But getting there is going to be fraught with tremendous peril,” says William Coe, partner and US Agribusiness Leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Timid about getting too big in a shaky global economy, many companies are turning their focus to organic growth, especially domestically. And with so many crop protection manufacturers based in India and China – the world’s fastest-growing economies – domestic brand-building has become a preferred option of late in lieu of international expansion. This domestic growth might be a safe option in the current global macroeconomic environment, but it is not unlucrative.
“When you look at some Indian companies, they are reporting growth rates of 25% and more,” Phillips says. “So we are relatively confident in this year’s results, and look forward to the possibility that trend will continue.”
Mumbai-based Aimco Pesticides, for example, has grown in the double digits for the past couple of years, and in 2011, its revenues doubled as it expanded capacity and added licensed products. In 2012, Aimco is expecting “conservative” 20% growth compared to a record 2011.
“In my opinion horticulture – primarily fruits, vegetables – and floriculture will drive growth in the coming years, and also the rising adoption of herbicides due to increase in cost of labor herbicides,” says Elizabeth Shrivastava, Aimco’s managing director.
同样，UPL 和跨国公司各自的部门都有望在 2011 年实现两位数增长。总体而言，印度农化行业预计到 2013 年每年增长近 8%，今年将增长 $20 亿。
通配符
也许 2012 年最有趣的通配符将是围绕美国农业法案和欧盟共同农业政策的农业补贴的夸张。有理由认为，贸易的全球性已经使这些政策过时，但对这些已经实施了近一个世纪的政策的情感依恋可能会迫使农民削减开支。
“Government incentives that fade away will hurt demand in the short term … There is going to be pressure on all [US] programs,” Coe of PricewaterhouseCoopers says. “In the long term, things will be fine because we will cultivate more.”