作物保护有望在 2013 年再创新高。强劲的农场收入和有利的作物价格使去年作物保护产品的销售额创下新纪录。预计 2013 年需求将保持高位。
Crop protection sales approached $47.3 billion in 2012, according to Phillips McDougall’s preliminary analysis conducted in November. Sales for the year represent a 7.4% increase in nominal global value. Even more encouraging, after adjusting for inflation and currency valuations, real growth was 10%, the highest year-over-year rise since the 2008 bubble, when real growth was 10.2%.
Herbicides and active substances for major row crops are leading crop protection’s boom times. The world’s growing appetite for feed corn, soybeans and small grains continue to drive record industry profits with plenty of upside to come.
The major drivers in 2012 are expected to continue in 2013, including strong prices, yields and demand for crops around the world. Corn has seen the biggest changes with an increasing amount of land dedicated to that crop to capitalize on price and replenish stocks that hit a nine-year low in the U.S. as a result of last year’s drought.
“These factors provide a positive market environment for all inputs, including seed,” says Matthew Phillips, lead analyst of Phillips McDougall. “Fertilizer is more of a commodity market driven by volume and price. As a result, supply-side dynamics for the fertilizer sector have a much greater impact on prices and market value. Seeds and crop protection are more R&D-driven where supply-side dynamics have less of an impact.”
据菲利普斯称，自 2006 年以来，巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国的经济增长普遍推高了大宗商品价格。这些国家表现出更高的需求，而恶劣的天气对供应产生了负面影响。
“Demand has been driven by the BRIC countries due to increased wealth and dietary changes, particularly in China and Russia, which import more arable produce than they export,” Phillips says. Demand is also increasing in other late-stage development countries enjoying increased wealth based on economic development, notably Central and Eastern Europe and parts of Southeast Asia.
Indian Wheat Booms; China’s Corn Yields Progress
China’s yields are still below those in the U.S., but they are improving. The government is investing heavily in mechanization, irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides and seeds.
根据美国谷物委员会的文件和物理测量，种植密度（每公顷植物数）也在增加，但仍低于美国平均水平。
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), “The large increase in [world] corn production in recent years is due equally to higher planted area and better yields.”
在中国东北（主要是黑龙江省），曾经主要用于种植大豆的土地现在被用于种植玉米，每公顷的利润明显高于大豆。在该国东北部，春小麦和其他次要作物也被玉米抢走了。在中国东部和中部，棉花已被玉米取代。
According to USDA FAS, “India is seizing the opportunity to export record quantities of competitively priced wheat. As global exportable supplies tighten, particularly from Russia and Ukraine, India’s wheat is effectively replacing Black Sea wheat in several Middle East and East African countries. It is also replacing Australian wheat (milling and feed-quality) in Asian markets, and even displacing Turkish wheat flour in Indonesia.”
根据美国农业部 FAS 的数据，在中国，政府政策通过将其设定在高于世界玉米价格的水平来影响库存的玉米收购价格。中国政府的既定政策是保持农民种植玉米的兴趣，以帮助提高农村人口的收入。
柑橘和棉花热销
Unlike corn, citrus and cotton (particularly in Australia) production has been reduced. According to USDA FAS, “With planting of the 2012/13 Australian cotton crop nearly complete, the estimated area is lower than last year, with dry land cotton area expected to drop by 85% and irrigated cotton area expected to drop by 22%.”
Dry conditions and low cotton prices are two factors contributing to this year’s decrease in area. Relatively high prices for sorghum have made it an attractive alternative for Australian farmers.
对于柑橘，全球产量比上年下降 7% 至 5110 万公吨 (MMT)。这主要是因为巴西、墨西哥和欧盟的收成减少。消费量为 28.5 MMT，下降约 2%。
同样在美国，预计 2013 年棉花产量将下降约 25%，而不是玉米播种面积增加。
定价视图
据 Phillips McDougall 称，主要作物商品期货价格将持续到 2013 年。这为农业经济提供了信心。
“If the farmer is confident that the crop price will be high when he comes to sell his crop, or if he can sell it forward at a high price to the futures market, then he is more likely to invest in crop inputs to maximize his yield and his eventual return,” Phillips says. “This is seen in the U.S. particularly, with fungicide usage on maize and soybeans increasing when crop prices are high, but falling away when prices decline.”
There are a couple of factors that could dampen that confidence including “more normal weather resulting in recovery in crop production leading to higher stocks and lower crop prices,” Phillips says. Another factor is profitability of ethanol production. Around 40% of the U.S. corn crop goes toward ethanol production, which is increasingly uncertain amid heightened research for more sustainable biofuel sources.
价格的这些变化影响了农民的反应方式。
“The general expectation is there will be further increase in the U.S. corn acreage in 2013, although as soybean prices are also high, this may not turn out to be as great as expected,” Phillips says.
高作物价格也导致拉丁美洲在 2012 年 8 月和 2012 年 9 月播种面积增加。到 2013 年春季美国播种时，拉丁美洲作物的规模及其对作物库存和价格可能产生的影响将是已知的，这可能会改变种植意图。
有关肥料的更多信息，请转到第二页。
3% Rise 肥料套装
随着越来越多的农用化学品公司涉足作物养分以实现业务多元化，事实证明，肥料产品作为优质预混料具有高利润，并且是将产品与竞争对手区分开来的一种方式。
根据国际肥料协会的一份报告，预计 2013 年肥料需求将从相对平稳的 2012 年温和增长 3%。更高的需求加上较低的库存和持续有利的农作物价格表明化肥生产商和分销商的销售强劲。
随着中国、印度和中东出现新产能以满足需求，化肥供应在过去几年一直保持稳定。这些项目正在逐步结束，但预计 2013 年产能仍将增长 3%。
粮食市场吃紧、商品价格有利以及供需平衡将有助于强劲的销售和价格稳定。
预计市场条件将主要促进氮的销售，但农民表示他们也会用钾和磷补充土壤。