农用化学品中断贸易网络研讨会的 5 个要点

德丽丝： "One of the reasons this merger needs to be closely watched is because the Chinese government is encouraging the formulation of exported products, while it is making it more difficult to produce active ingredients. So it is likely that over the next few years, you will see less AIs come out of China and more formulated product." 新的先正达是一家中国国有企业 (SOE)，合并了中化集团和中国化工，隶属于先正达集团，其中还包括安道麦。它可能比合并后的拜耳作物科学/孟山都公司更大。

德丽丝： "There are an awful lot of agrochemicals that are produced in Mexico and the United States where they highly upgrade Chinese or Indian intermediates. Under existing circumstances, it’s difficult to label those made in US or made in Mexico. Now, as long as there is a chemical reaction, it will be relatively routine to add that label and save on duties as it crosses the border." USMCA 于 2020 年 7 月 1 日生效，将对化学业务产生重大影响：

• USMCA 提供 10 年的数据独占权，而北美自由贸易协定目前允许 5 年。因此，此类数据生成的数据和标签在该地区变得更有价值。
• USMCA 对北美自由贸易协定原产地规则的重大改变将使墨西哥制造商受益。从任何其他子目改变到子目 3808.50 至 3808.99，前提是按总活性成分重量计算不少于 50% 的原产物质。
• 化学反应规律是关键。如果你对一种化学物质进行反应，它就会被标记为在发生反应的地区制造。

德丽丝： "The Tranche 3 tariff was supposed to go to 30% and that was held off. If these (Phase 1 trade deal) talks break down, as the press is reporting they could, I would suspect that that 30% could be back on very short notice." "There is no doubt that 25% tariffs on Tranche 3 are now having a significant effect on the chemical supply chains and people are trying to find other than Chinese sources where they can. It’s likely also having a significant impact on the value of agrochemicals in other major markets like Brazil, Europe, and Japan as the Chinese look to ship their products wherever they can at competitive prices." 第 4 部分基本上涵盖了美国与中国贸易关系的其余部分：

• 12 月 13 日宣布，第 4a 批次的利率将降至 7.5%，并在新交易的第二阶段实现之前一直有效。此次削减于 2020 年 2 月 14 日生效。如果谈判破裂，这些关税很可能会以 15% 的价格重新征收。
• 12 月 13 日宣布不会实施第 4b 部分。如果谈判破裂，这些关税很可能会实施（包括草铵膦、草甘膦等）
• 有助于确保第 2 阶段协议稳健的部分杠杆作用是，25% 的第 1、2 和 3 部分关税以及 7.5% 的第 4a 部分关税将保留到位，直到第 2 阶段协议完成.如果政府感觉到中国没有履行其承诺，第 4b 部分就会开始。如果发生这种情况，4a 关税很可能会同时恢复到 15%，而 Tranche 3 关税将增加到 30%。

德丽丝： "If you stockpile, I would urge you to stockpile in a bonded warehouse or free trade zone so you don’t have to put out all that cash, and if something does change on the positive side, you don’t have to worry about filing for refunds. You have to watch the dates, but if you stockpile in a bonded warehouse, you don’t have to release it until the minute somebody gets you a purchase order, which is the safest way to be." "If practical, you can consider alternative chemistries, because for instance HTS 2933, very few products in that category are impacted. HTS 2935 is totally exempt. There may be a need to calculate price-performance ratios based on new realities." 在确定中国完全遵守最终达成的任何协议之前，美国政府不太可能取消征税。此类合规可能需要修改中国法律。

德丽丝： "If you bring something in under the duty suspension program, it expires on Dec. 31, 2020. Plan for a lapse. The last time there was a lapse, there was no retroactivity, so if you are a beneficiary of a duty suspension or reduction, and it doesn't look like anything is going to happen come October, you may want to consider bringing extra stocks in before Dec. 31 to save that money." 化工行业是这一收益的最大用户。我们的行业为此计划提出了 1,778 项提名：

• 可能在 6 月中旬，公司将有更多机会为被拒绝的请愿书提供支持。
• 在这一点上，如果您可能受到该计划的不利影响，最好（唯一！）的前进道路是与您的国会代表接触。