人民币升值打击中国出口

虽然在外界看来,中国似乎势不可挡地赢得全球市场份额,但中国的出口商目前正面临一个重大问题:人民币 (RMB) 的升值,根据一篇文章 分析, 进出口数据分析提供商。

Tranalysis 表示,货币升值正在削减利润并迫使一些公司提高价格,从而降低海外需求和竞争力。

来源:Xe.com

人民币在 2017 年被政府升值,年增长率为 6.3%。因此,美元对人民币的汇率从2017年初的6.9变为2018年初的6.3。 

人民币升值正在减少主要关注海外利润的出口公司的整体收入。

2018年,人民币继续走强。截至 2018 年 2 月 2 日,美元/人民币汇率为 6.2885。持续增加的价值使中国企业的出口更加困难,而且这种趋势短期内不会改变。

据专家称,今年人民币有强劲增长的潜力。中国的货币实力还有更大的增长空间。 2018 年,人民币开局较 2017 年强劲,兑美元升值 2.6%,年化超过 30%。

从历史上看,人民币一年只移动 6% 到 7%。例如,回顾人民币波动最大的一年,即 2016 年,下降了 6.8%。

But the higher value of RMB is not only raising problems for the domestic exporters. Other countries are complaining about China’s currency value growth. In fact, the development is causing some criticism that the export giant has been deliberately suppressing its currency to gain economic advantage over its trading partners. Some experts even have said the world’s second-largest economy is also propping up its currency to appease U.S. President Donald Trump.

一些中国出口的例子

According to China Customs, the country exported almost 200 thousand tonnes of cornstarch in the first three quarters of 2017, up by 150% over the 78,000 tonnes the same period in 2016. The prosperous export business boosted the domestic market. However, in regards to starch sugar, due to rebounding domestic prices, the appreciation of the RMB, and slumping international sugar prices, China’s export volume of starch sugar declined in September down 12.74% YoY.

China’s TiO2 market remained stable in the last months. Although some large-scale manufacturers quoted higher prices for their products, no great changes were seen in the actual transaction prices thanks to the appreciation of RMB and sluggish downstream demand.

China’s glyphosate prices continued falling in February 2018. The prices early in the month were lower than at the end of January. It is predicted that the prices are unlikely to rise before the Chinese Spring Festival in view of current supply and sale. What’s more, the appreciation of the RMB recently also restrains the enthusiasm for export, according to Tranalysis.

The Chinese phosphate fertilizer industry, already suffering from overcapacity problems, is set to face more challenges by the ongoing appreciation of the RMB, which could push many producers, especially DAP producers, to the edge of extinction. If the FOB price of DAP is RMB3300/t, the appreciation of the renminbi from 6.3 to 6.16 to the USD means that prices have risen by USD11.90 per tonne. Chinese DAP exporters have to raise prices or absorb the loss. But overseas buyers won’t accept price increases, especially in the current international DAP market. In the meantime, the exchange rate of RMB to USD is still keeping an uptrend. Correspondingly, the pressure to phosphate fertilizer industry posed by the RMB appreciation will continue, let alone the undervalued international DAP price, 根据 分析.