吉姆德利斯的 Fanwood Chemical 监测全球贸易和农用化学品的进出口。他关注未来几个月的 301 关税、农民商业网络和其他新闻。 AgriBusiness Global 采访了 DeLisi，询问他对 2022 年剩余时间的进口导航的建议。
ABG：您对目前除草剂的可用性有何看法？
京东： I’m contrarian to where a lot of people are right now on herbicide availability, so what I’m going to say, may somewhat surprise you. I think there’s a bubble in herbicides and by mid-to-late year, prices will come crashing downward.
What’s going on right now is very confusing. There is a significant lack of direction in the U.S.-China trading relationship. This likely means that the 301关税 will be here for at least another couple of years, and so members of this industry need to plan logistical issues, for not only here, but abroad. They need to make sure they’ve got proper inventories in place and control of the flow of herbicides over the next few months, so that they don’t get caught with a lot of expensive inventory.
ABG：您认为该行业还应该注意哪些其他挑战？
京东： 观察欧盟在未来五六个月内发生的事情将会很有趣，尤其是德国生产商。他们非常关心天然气的价格。这 德国化学工业协会 曾暗示，如果从俄罗斯切断或关闭天然气供应，将迫使德国化学工业长期停产。在过去的几年里，欧洲生产商一直是避风港之一，但由于围绕乌克兰战争的问题，现在情况可能并非如此。
而且我认为人们应该注意的另一件事是 农商网 将对所有农用化学品和供应品的传统供应链产生影响。他们在过去三年中取得了巨大的发展，并将继续这样做。
ABG： 对于克服这些挑战，您有什么建议？
京东： Plan, plan, plan. If you don’t have a plan, then you’re in deep trouble. Planning is the only way to get through this. There’s also the opportunity to consider alternate sources that are not related to the 301 tariffs. Look for alternate sources available from other than Chinese and Europe, such as the United States, Mexico, or India. Diversity is your friend.
Also, look at alternative chemistries. Because of what’s happened with pricing, the cost-benefit relationships may have shifted as some of these prices have gone through the roof.
考虑在保税仓库中持有更大的库存。华盛顿特区有关于审查 301 关税清单以确保它仍然适用于贸易议程并且不会增加通货膨胀的传闻。如果碰巧这些关税消失了，那么你最终不会得到一个装满非常非常昂贵的库存的仓库。您可以放心，不会有任何退款——所以请保护好自己。