今年秋天，由于干旱导致小麦减产，洪水阻碍了水稻收成，世界粮食价格一直承受着来自金融市场的巨大压力。全球产量的下调在全球食品市场引发恐慌，引发了莫桑比克的骚乱以及大部分金融和期货市场的恐慌。
While the world’s food supply might not be as dire as depicted by the reactionaries, it is lower than expected. In September, the 粮农组织 修订了其对全球粮食生产和粮食安全的估计。粮农组织表示，2010 年全球谷物产量将为 224 万吨，低于 6 月份预测的 228 万吨。即使在这个较低的水平上，谷物产量也将是有记录以来的第三高水平，并高于过去五年的平均水平。
今年，全球消费量预计将超过产量，但分析人士表示，全球食品库存足以满足 2011 年的需求。幸运的是，全球食品库存进入 2010 年时达到八年来的最高水平，因为许多国家都在储备供应，以防止出现类似 2008 年的情况。靠食物奔跑。 2008 年，库存使用比降至 19.5%。据粮农组织称，今年，即使预计期末食品库存下降 2%，库存使用比仍将达到 23%。
最大的担忧是小麦，由于需求增加和产量低下的共同作用，2010 年小麦价格大幅上涨。特别是，俄罗斯的出口禁令和黑海地区其他生产国的低生产率导致今年全球小麦产量估计比 2009 年下降 5%。预计年末库存将下降 9%，因为较低的产量增加，加上对小麦的需求增加，小麦在 2010 年已经播种不足。
今年粗粮和大米市场更加平衡，尽管天气现象和播种面积减少导致预测略有下调。世界粗粮产量预计将达到 112.5 万吨，比 6 月份的预测减少 600 万吨，但如果预估实现，这仍将是有记录以来的第二大收成。
随着美国和中国的丰收，玉米产量预计将接近历史最高水平。相反，由于欧盟和俄罗斯联邦减产，2010 年大麦预计将达到 1.29 亿吨的 30 年低点，比去年下降 22%。
2010 年全球稻米预测也已下调，主要原因是巴基斯坦发生洪灾，中国、印度、埃及、老挝和菲律宾发生预测。全球稻米产量预测已下调 500 万吨至 4.67 亿吨，与 2009 年相比增加 3%。
食品安全
在谷物价格上涨和期货市场投机取巧的情况下，9 月份的产量预估平息了围绕食品市场的大部分夸张说法。这促使粮农组织修改其产量估计，并召开紧急会议讨论 9 月下旬全球谷物市场的动荡。 10 月，该组织召开了世界粮食安全委员会第 36 届会议。
Food security often reflects a region’s potential for farm incomes, which contributes directly to the level of usage of crop protection products.
2010 年和 2011 年初粮食安全的主要因素主要与天气有关，此外还有粮食短缺普遍存在的地区，主要是在中非、阿富汗、巴基斯坦、蒙古、朝鲜和伊拉克。
This year, North Africa’s output has been mixed. In Egypt, where much of the planted wheat is irrigated, the country expects to harvest 8.6 million tonnes of wheat, which is comparable to last year’s good crop. However, Egypt imports 10 million tonnes of wheat annually, the largest importer of wheat in world. Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco import a significant amount as well (8 million tonnes collectively) and harvests in those countries were deeply affected from drought this year. The region typically imports its wheat from Russia, which has set an export ban this year because of its reduced yields.
随后，尽管2009年北非小麦丰收，但小麦价格仍将走高。水稻也跟随小麦的走势稳步上涨。自春季以来，大米价格上涨了三分之一，使得粮食净进口国的粮食安全更加岌岌可危。
在西部非洲，大量的局部洪水造成了严重的作物和牲畜损失，最明显的是在尼日尔、布基纳法索和乍得。天气还影响了加纳、象牙海岸、尼日利亚、利比里亚和几内亚比绍的收成。据粮农组织称，粮食安全和营养在这些国家仍然至关重要。
在东部非洲，早期报告显示该次区域 2010 年谷物收成创纪录，达到 3600 万吨，比五年平均水平高 9%。玉米价格在今年早些时候出现一些波动后趋于稳定。
In southern Africa, harvests appear to be mixed. Corn production rose 9% in the region despite a dry spell during mid-season in Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. South Africa estimates a near-record harvest, which constitutes 55% of the total maize output for the subregion. Wheat production for the region is expected to decline for the second-consecutive season, largely due to South Africa’s 15% decline in production. South Africa produces about 90% of the region’s wheat.
生产趋势
尽管远东许多水稻产区发生洪灾，但 2010 年谷物收成预计增加 2.2%，达到 11.1 亿吨。印度、斯里兰卡、孟加拉国、菲律宾和马来西亚的显着改善减轻了巴基斯坦的作物损失。该地区的水稻收成预计将超过 6.28 亿吨，比去年增加 3.2%。
亚洲的小麦价格与许多亚洲国家的国际出口市场同步上涨，但小麦价格与其他市场（泰国、菲律宾）的大米价格保持一致，以保持与大米的价格平价。
In Central Asia, wheat output is expected to fall 15% to 30 million tonnes, largely because of severe drought in Kazakhstan. However, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan experienced favorable weather and good harvests on par with last year’s levels. Cereal production in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been revised sharply downward compared to the bumper crop in 2009. Georgia experienced the largest production decline in cereal production in Central Asia, falling almost one-third, attributed to a lack of farmers’ access to crop inputs combined with heavy rains during the planting season. Additionally, Armenia’s cereal harvest struggled this year because of a lack of supply of agricultural inputs.
In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina have recovered from their significant droughts last year, especially with its elevated corn production. But the region is not completely back to regular growing conditions. Argentina planted 20% more wheat than it did in last year’s drought-affected levels, but warm weather and low humidity again threaten the country’s 11.5 million tonne projection. In Peru, low rainfall and widespread unseasonably cold temperatures since May is creating a crisis: Up to half of cattle have been lost and 25% of all livestock perished. Potatoes, a major crop for the country, cannot be planted or harvested in affected areas.
In North America wheat estimates are higher than last year’s level despite lower plantings as favorable weather produced bumper crops. Plantings for winter wheat in 2011 are expected to rise from the 40-year low planted last season. Farmers have opted for soybeans and especially corn in recent years to capitalize on favorable crop prices. Much of that is expected to continue, but rising wheat prices in export markets will give US farmers some alternatives to corn and soya.
Europe’s cereal output expectations have been reduced compared to earlier this year, however recent rises in cereal prices have many upsides for the global market as farmer reconsider their intentions in light of higher profits.
Australia’s wheat harvest is expected to come in at 25 million tonnes, a 16% rise compared to 2009, which was the largest crop on record.
Globally, uncertainty from the Black Sea region and Pakistan helped cereal prices spike and put many food-insecure countries on alert, but bolstered yields in North America, Europe and Australia (despite lower plantings) has helped stabilize the market. Additionally, experts expect farmers to plant more wheat this year to capitalize on prices and help replenish global food stocks of wheat and rice that are necessary to meet global demand until next year’s plantings.