China’s bio-fuel policies aim to increase production of ethanol to 4 million metric tons (MT) by 2010, and to meet 15% of its transportation needs by 2020.
中国政府推行的积极战略包括研发、立法以及通过补贴和其他财政激励措施分阶段向行业和消费者引入生物燃料。随着人口规模和经济影响力的不断增长，提高生物柴油和乙醇产量的努力可能会对世界市场产生巨大影响。
China’s policy objectives are produce 12 million MT of biofuels, including ethanol and biodiesel, annually by 2020, pushing it up to 15% of the nation’s transportation fuel use.
生物柴油天作之合
The increased development of biodiesel is a result of the already entrenched diesel market in China being twice that of gasoline. Yet the biodiesel strategies in the country are lagging behind the program to promote ethanol, reports the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service (USDA-FAS).
虽然乙醇的发展已成为政府规划的主题 20 年，但生物柴油直到 2006 年才成为一个认真考虑的问题。因此，尚未为生物柴油制定严格的燃料乙醇生产标准。
中国现在正通过双管齐下的方式推进生物燃料。虽然生物柴油需要在政府政策方面赶上乙醇，但它对国家的前景与乙醇一样大。然而，就出口燃料而言，乙醇可能是更强大的现金来源，中国计划确保这两个项目继续发展。目前，中国每年生产 100,000 至 200,000 公吨生物柴油。
乙醇加速
已经有大约 920,000 公吨，生产能力为 1,020,00 公吨。按照目前的结构，这个数字到 2010 年应该达到或超过 400 万吨。
China exports a small amount of fuel ethanol, but a growing domestic demand is expected to cut into the export numbers in the next few years. What remains to be seen is how the sources of ethanol establish themselves in the country. Maize, sugar, oilseeds, sorghum, wheat, and cassava are likely to become feedstock sources for ethanol. Efficiency will determine which sources will dominate the country’s future biofuel industry, though plants will probably be built to support multiple sources depending on the crops available in each region. However, to what extent Chinese farm policy changes is yet to be seen. It is possible that some of the feedstock sources will greatly expand in certain regions where biofuels provide high returns, and that other crops will be sacrificed to make room.
滚动的市场
In addition to the change in crop areas and crops grown, biofuels are seen as one key to the health of China as a whole. The government sees several benefits to biofuel production, not the least of which are cleaner emissions and less dependence on oil for the country’s increasing number of vehicles.
As disposable income in China continues to increase, privately owned vehicles are becoming more and more common. According to data from the national Bureau of Statistics of China, the number of automobiles owned nationwide reached 26.94 million in 2004 (passenger cars: 17.36 million; trucks: 8.93 million; others: 0.65 million). The average growth rate between 1986 and 2004 was 11.8%. To understand these numbers more clearly, consider that in Beijing alone, authorities report 1,000 new cars are added each day to the city’s roads.
The government has taken notice of Brazil as an example, where 80% of passenger vehicles are flex-fuel. The capital city of Henan, Nanyang, is set to pilot a flex-fuel transportation program in China. The city will experiment with 100 flex-fuel vehicles and 3-5 flex-fuel public transportation buses from the EU. Future research and development will be based on this initial pilot program which make shape the country’s national policy.
除了汽车，生物燃料还可以为整个中国带来更广泛的利益。
农村回报
The historic boom in China over the past few decades has largely been confined to coastal cities. While wealth is spreading across the country and improvements are being made in rural areas in central China, this interior area has grown at a far slower rate than cities on the country’s coast. With biofuel production becoming a major industry, the greatest winners are expected to be these rural areas as prices reach higher levels and demand for crops grows.
事实上，许多人（包括 FCI）预测，不断发展的生物燃料行业将提高几乎所有农作物的价格，遵循简单的供求规则。如果对玉米和甘蔗等作物的需求突然激增，更多的生产者将转向种植这些作物以满足需求。随后，后续效应将是作物供应收紧，这些作物被放弃以腾出空间种植更多的玉米和甘蔗（以及其他生物燃料原料）。这些非生物燃料作物的供应减少也预示着它们在国际市场上的价格。
USDA-FAS reports that China’s attmepts to use biofuels to mitigate rural poverty will several different regional effects. Most plants are currently located in the northeast, where ethanol production consumes 10% of the maize production of the northeastern provinces of Jilin, Liaoning, Heilongjian, Hebei, and Henan. This area could add crops for biofuel production on otherwise marginal land.
有了更多的植物，新疆、西藏、青海、内蒙古和甘肃等西北部省份可以通过种植高粱和麻风树来扩大农业市场。随着中国南方工厂的增加，甘蔗和木薯作物可以扩大，以满足增加的乙醇生产目标。
Some of the answers to the questions about China’s bio-fuels industry may be answered very soon. In late 2006, China will release implementation plans of the biofuels component of the 11th Five-Year Period (2006-2010). This may include national production targets and the implementation of new programs to support biofuels as part of China’s energy policy.