我们最近询问了成员 全球农业企业 咨询委员会 to relay their thoughts on the future of China’s agrichemicals market and its supply chain.
以下是他们的评论：
皮亚提达·普克莱
Piyatida (Tung) Pukclai 博士
区域业务发展总监（亚太区）
Dr. Knoell Consult Thai Co. Ltd.
“From the regulatory side, the current regulation helps the big Chinese manufacturers and seems to be zero (or almost) growth for those smaller manufacturers. It is a consequence from the risk assessment-based and environmental/human-friendly. After new pesticides are registered (according to the new data requirements) in the next few years, small companies can still do me-too registration … if those smaller companies still exist.”
CS Liew
CS刘
常务董事
太平洋农业科学私人有限公司
“一句话——不确定！如果冬季污染问题继续成为年度特征，生产可能会受到进一步的负面影响。 2017 年迈向更清洁环境的道路不会逆转。价格将保持高位，如果生产和供应进一步减少，价格还会更高。两年后，政府将对所有工厂进行新一轮全面检查，这增加了不确定性。与此同时，预计中国制造业将加强整合，小型工厂越来越少，越来越多的工厂将由越来越大的工厂生产。”
迭戈·陶布
迭戈·陶布
Chempro公司
“(A) Producers are getting less — and simultaneously bigger — creating, in the best of the cases, oligopolies. (B) The closing of plants plays against the investments made by companies in other countries when registering products from factories that don’t work anymore. (C) I don’t believe that the central government will go back with their policy soon, generating less offer of products and, in consequence, higher prices. (D) It is an opportunity for India and other countries to regain (or to gain) market share. Let’s see how things develop after CAC in March 2019. I guess it will be the usual game: before CAC — restraining offers, at least one to two weeks in advance; during CAC — gathering info and not mentioning prices; after CAC — trying to increase prices.”
Chemovateq Swiss AG Investments 的联合创始人兼管理合伙人，Stephen Pearce，
Chemovateq Swiss AG Investments 的联合创始人兼管理合伙人，Stephen Pearce，
创始董事/首席运营官
AWP Associates Ltd. / Bancela Ltd.
“中国合规和关联重组：持续合规导致供应链持续中断；工厂收购资产以确保其供应链的整合；更加关注健康与安全的进一步检查；中国制造企业尝试离岸以选择地理区域。印度为公平竞争所做的持续努力：印度组织加大力度向后整合；行业可能会努力加快选定化学品及其配方的注册，以抢占市场份额；中国越来越有兴趣从印度获取某些材料，并试图从地理上降低风险。”
Jim DeLisi
Jim DeLisi
范伍德化学公司
“I expect it to be a continuing challenge. Key first step will be known in about 3 weeks – do they come to a deal with the President and avoid the imposition of 25% tariffs. The environmental situation continues to be troubling. Last, but certainly not least, SinoChem is not firmly in control of Syngenta, though they have not ‘acquired’ ChemChina. This situation eventually has to be clarified by world-wide antitrust authorities. How it is resolved could have a significant impact on the supply of Chinese sourced actives.”