AgriBusiness Global 最近采访了 Jacqui Fatka，他是 CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division. Fatka provided insights into key trends and challenges shaping the global ag input landscape, from the decrease in fertilizer prices to planting numbers rebalancing in South America, as well as challenges like dicamba-related issues, EPA’s proposed herbicide strategy, and resistance concerns.
ABG：在全球作物保护领域，您认为 2024 年有哪些机会？
雅基·法特卡： A major market for crop protection is in Brazil and Argentina. They’re really looking to rebalance after the destocking that occurred in 2023, and part of that was because of the drought. A lot of the crops in that region are planted as a double crop. If the weather isn’t favorable, if there’s not enough moisture to put that double crop in, they’re not going to plant. Then you have fewer inputs that are required. The whole crop industry is really rebalancing this destocking. A lot of companies have talked about that in their latest financials.
They’re telling their investors that they’re hoping to see some improvement heading into 2024. A lot of that excess supply is now being worked through the market. Corteva, one of the major ones in this market, just recently had projected a 9% net sales decline primarily because of Latin America, because of some of this stock destocking. FMC is another major one in the market. They have seen some significant drop in their sales, and they’re rebalancing again, trying to reposition ahead.
ABG：您认为 2024 年全球作物保护、肥料和生物刺激剂方面的趋势是什么？
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ABG：预计明年农作物保护将面临哪些挑战？
Jacqui Fatka, CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
杰夫： A big issue is dicamba. It is a tool that’s used widely across the U.S., and a lot of states growing soybean and cotton are using it. In February, we saw a court ruling halt the use, saying that the EPA didn’t follow their proper commenting rules in 2020, when they issued on how it could be used. We found out in February that the EPA is going to allow the existing stocks to be sold.
Seed salesman working directly with the growers and a lot of seed companies have transitioned to seed varieties that allow dicamba to be sprayed. It’s kind of the new RoundUp. The seeds are designed to be able to withstand the spraying of dicamba, and those are built into the seed. If you don’t have the ability to spray dicamba, but your seed is resistant to that, you may not be able to knock out weeds.
至少今年的好消息是，他们将允许在已售出的现有库存中继续使用麦草畏，而且许多生产商确实在秋末和早春购买了这些库存，所以这是一个叹息的缓解。据估计，美国所有大豆种植面积的 45% 都使用了麦草畏。
BASF, Bayer, and Syngenta all have dicamba products on the market, so several companies that are servicing the U.S. industry are affected. But if companies have extra stocks that didn’t get sold, it’s sitting in their warehouses, and they won’t be able to sell and ship it out.
That’s one situation. Another one is EPA’s proposed herbicide strategy in dealing with endangered species. This will limit what kinds of products can be used, but then also the mitigation efforts. The strategy has had some troubling parts. Growers especially have expressed some concerns from their different commodity groups.
濒临灭绝的物种可能只存在于一个县的一小部分地区；然而，一个州的整个县或地区可能会受到该濒危物种潜力的影响。如果美国环保局因为另一个环境问题而开始限制工具箱中确实具有环境效益的工具，那么这确实是生产商非常关心的事情。
We’re also starting to see RoundUp resistance, and growing resistance, because of how it was applied. We need new technologies to help farmers. There are also environmental benefits for growers using no till, but to do that, growers need to have a seed that can be resistant to weeds that they spray over with one pass instead of running the cultivator over that ground to get those weeds out.
ABG：阿根廷经济政策的转变将如何影响其在全球豆粕市场中的角色？
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